⚠️ 2026: A CYCLE PEAK? MACRO ANALYSIS ⚠️

According to Benner's cycle, 2026 would not mark the beginning of a new bull market, but rather the peak year, before a more complex phase for the markets.

Benner's Cycle Reminder
Developed in 1875 by Samuel Benner, this cycle classifies years into three categories:

• A – Panic Years: exit and liquidation phases
• B – Peak Years: cycle peaks, high valuations
• C – Difficulty Years: periods favorable for buying at low prices

Current interpretation:

• 2026 is identified as a “B” year: market peak, high prices, potential distribution phase

• The cycle's history is noteworthy, particularly regarding:

• the dot-com bubble
• the 2008 financial crisis
• the COVID period
• Since its publication, the cycle has shown 16 correct predictions and 6 incorrect ones

Why 2026 warrants particular attention:

• “Light” QE already seems to be in place, with a risk of artificially inflating valuations
• The new direction of the Fed expected in May could excessively stimulate the economy, reviving inflation and subsequently forcing a Sharp tightening
• AI-related profits are very real today, but the sustainability of expectations remains a key unknown
• The US yield curve has been inverted for about 15 months — historically, this signal very often precedes a recession

Conclusion

If the cycle repeats itself, 2026 could mark a market peak, paving the way for a subsequent macroeconomic correction or slowdown.

🌍 DALIO & ARMSTRONG: THE HIDDEN RHYTHM OF MARKETS

Markets are not linear. They follow cycles of confidence, debt, and power, as Ray Dalio and Martin Armstrong have demonstrated.

Armstrong's model, the "Economic Confidence Model," is based on a fascinating constant: an 8.6-year cycle, or 3141 days (the number π), which dictates the waves of euphoria and panic in the markets. Each peak corresponds to a surge in confidence, followed by a political, monetary, or financial crisis.

📈 The major milestones of the cycle since 1985:
• 1989: Japanese crisis (Tokyo Crash)
• 1998: Russia & LTCM
• 2007: Real estate crisis
• 2015: Peak in government interest rates
• 2020: Global health and monetary crisis
• 2024: Commodities boom and the beginning of a structural reconfiguration

And according to Armstrong, the next major turning point will arrive around August 2028, a period marked by a global authority crisis, a monetary transition, and probably a shift in economic hegemony toward the East.

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🔁 Ray Dalio's analysis complements this dynamic

Dalio distinguishes two levels:

1. The short-term cycle (7 to 10 years), driven by credit, interest rates, and liquidity.

2. The long-term cycle (75 to 100 years), where debts accumulate, inequalities explode, and empires fall.

Today, these two cycles are converging.

- We are emerging from a decade of massive debt and ultra-accommodative policies.

- Positive real interest rates are reappearing, squeezing public and private balance sheets.

- And geopolitical tensions signal a global transition exactly as Armstrong predicted for the 2032–2037 phase, the time of the “Peak in the West” and the “Shift to China.”

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⚖️ IN BRIEF

👉 2024–2025: partial euphoria, bullish impulse in commodities and technology.

👉 2026–2028: monetary contraction, political imbalances, institutional crisis of confidence.

👉 2032–2037: Total economic, energy, and monetary reconfiguration toward a new global center of gravity.

Cycles don't predict the future down to the day.

But they reveal a rhythm, a universal pulse of the economic system.

And whether it's Dalio or Armstrong, one idea persists:

Those who understand cycles don't just endure change; they anticipate it.