China’s Critical Mineral Dominance by 2030
The energy transition relies on refined critical minerals and by 2030, China will control most of it:
• Lithium, Cobalt, Graphite, Rare Earths: China holds 60%+ refining share, peaking at 86% for rare earths.
• Nickel: The exception Indonesia leads with 71%, reshaping global pricing.
• #Copper: More diversified, but China still at 45%.
This concentration brings cost advantages but raises geopolitical risk for EV and clean energy supply chains.
#Energy #CriticalMinerals #SupplyChain
The energy transition relies on refined critical minerals and by 2030, China will control most of it:
• Lithium, Cobalt, Graphite, Rare Earths: China holds 60%+ refining share, peaking at 86% for rare earths.
• Nickel: The exception Indonesia leads with 71%, reshaping global pricing.
• #Copper: More diversified, but China still at 45%.
This concentration brings cost advantages but raises geopolitical risk for EV and clean energy supply chains.
#Energy #CriticalMinerals #SupplyChain
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
AI's explosive growth is powering a massive surge in electricity demand, gas and coal will fuel most of the new power needed for data centers through 2035.
CCGT (gas) dominates the incremental generation, with coal a close 2nd, renewables play a role, but fossils provide the reliable baseload.
Meanwhile, tech stocks are massively overhyped at 30-35% of the S&P 500, while energy remains low at just ~3%.
Exxon ($500B cap, #19 globally) is primed for a huge comeback, plus that $50B Canadian giant everyone's still ignoring.
#oott #AI #PowerDemand #Energy #Investing $XOM
CCGT (gas) dominates the incremental generation, with coal a close 2nd, renewables play a role, but fossils provide the reliable baseload.
Meanwhile, tech stocks are massively overhyped at 30-35% of the S&P 500, while energy remains low at just ~3%.
Exxon ($500B cap, #19 globally) is primed for a huge comeback, plus that $50B Canadian giant everyone's still ignoring.
#oott #AI #PowerDemand #Energy #Investing $XOM
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🚨 $510 billion in irreplaceable assets
Ranked #19 in the S&P 500
While Apple and Microsoft command $6.7 trillion for making phones and software, the companies that literally power civilization are trading like they're going out of business.
But AI doesn't run on optimism. Every ChatGPT query, every data center, every training run requires massive, continuous, 99.99% reliable power.
The only thing that can deliver it at scale?
The same fossil fuels everyone decided to stop funding 15 years ago.
And the companies positioned to benefit are trading at half their intrinsic value.
Ranked #19 in the S&P 500
While Apple and Microsoft command $6.7 trillion for making phones and software, the companies that literally power civilization are trading like they're going out of business.
But AI doesn't run on optimism. Every ChatGPT query, every data center, every training run requires massive, continuous, 99.99% reliable power.
The only thing that can deliver it at scale?
The same fossil fuels everyone decided to stop funding 15 years ago.
And the companies positioned to benefit are trading at half their intrinsic value.
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
In 2004-2014, oil giants like #ExxonMobil dominated the top spots.
Fast forward to 2024 tech has taken over completely.
But today? Tech overhyped at 35% of the market, energy low at just 3%
Exxon (still around #19 with $500B cap) poised for a massive top 5 comeback, plus a $50B Canadian giant everyone's ignoring.
The great rotation is loading...
#oott #Energy #Investing $XOM
Fast forward to 2024 tech has taken over completely.
But today? Tech overhyped at 35% of the market, energy low at just 3%
Exxon (still around #19 with $500B cap) poised for a massive top 5 comeback, plus a $50B Canadian giant everyone's ignoring.
The great rotation is loading...
#oott #Energy #Investing $XOM
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🎅 As the year comes to an end, markets often experience a seasonal phenomenon known as the Santa Claus Rally. This is a period where investor activity tends to increase around the end of December and early January. Last 5 trading days of the year + first…
🎅 Today, the "Santa Claus Rally" begins – over a seven-day trading window, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 1.26% gain and ended in the green in 77% of cases (data from 1950).
In the entire history, there has never been a single instance where the S&P 500 index declined three years in a row during this period. After two unsuccessful years (2023 and 2024), the chances of a positive outcome are high.
In the entire history, there has never been a single instance where the S&P 500 index declined three years in a row during this period. After two unsuccessful years (2023 and 2024), the chances of a positive outcome are high.
Considering his reputation as a "reversal indicator", everyone can draw their own conclusions.
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People put blind faith in a 4-year Bitcoin cycle. That cycle has only played out three times.
Yet they ignore longer and proven cycles.
The 18-year real estate cycle points to 2026 as the peak. 🚨
The 200-year-old Benner cycle also signals 2026 as the peak. 🚨
Yet they ignore longer and proven cycles.
The 18-year real estate cycle points to 2026 as the peak. 🚨
The 200-year-old Benner cycle also signals 2026 as the peak. 🚨
🗿1
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
Permian tight oil production is now in decline:
- Rig count down 29%
- Wells completed per month down 20%
- Yoy production growth has turned negative and is falling fast
The U.S. shale boom that flooded the world with oil is rolling over – just as global demand (especially AI-driven power) keeps surging.
Supply tightening + demand rising = classic setup for higher oil prices.
The great rotation is loading…
- Rig count down 29%
- Wells completed per month down 20%
- Yoy production growth has turned negative and is falling fast
The U.S. shale boom that flooded the world with oil is rolling over – just as global demand (especially AI-driven power) keeps surging.
Supply tightening + demand rising = classic setup for higher oil prices.
The great rotation is loading…
#Copper is one of the most critical macro assets for 2026 as we are likely to enter a true price-discovery phase, in my view.
Despite prices sitting near all-time highs, production is not responding.
In fact, output in the world’s largest producing country is at one of its lowest levels in over a decade.
This setup points to the potential for a highly explosive move from here.
Despite prices sitting near all-time highs, production is not responding.
In fact, output in the world’s largest producing country is at one of its lowest levels in over a decade.
This setup points to the potential for a highly explosive move from here.
🚨 FACT: #BTC has never sustained prices below its electrical cost of production.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
#BTC/USDT M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi @Hawk_trading_bot …
#BTC/USDT M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi
@Hawk_trading_bot @ostiumbot
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$NGAS/USD M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi
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↗️ ostium.com
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
#ETH/USDT M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi @Hawk_trading_bot …
#ETH/USDT M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi
@Hawk_trading_bot @ostiumbot
@VooiAppBot
🐦 @pigeon_trade_bot
↗️ gains.trade
↗️ ostium.com
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Prove your #trading skills and get funded!
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Unlock your freedom
💱 mtpelerin.com
Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi
@Hawk_trading_bot @ostiumbot
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In Fortune, analysedand forecasts of 15 major banks and received a verdict in one word - "instability" (precarious).
➠ Optimism with reservations:
- The S&P 500 index shows double-digit growth for the third consecutive year. The average analyst target for the end of 2026 = 7269 points (another +5% growth).
- Vanguard and LPL Financial expect "solid returns", but warn: risks are growing, especially in the technology sector (AI bubble).
➠ AI mania (on the verge of a bubble):
- JPMorgan notes that technology giants have tripled their capital expenditures (from $150b to $500b), with the lion's share going to investments in AI infrastructure.
- At the same time, 40% of the S&P 500's capitalization is tied to artificial intelligence.
- Bank of America sounds the alarm: the current situation increasingly resembles the dotcom bubble - investors are buying back dips on emotions, not on cold calculation.
- Lazard Asset Management directly states: the volume of investments in AI infrastructure exceeds realistic revenue forecasts.
- BCA Research warns: "Either Wall Street or the companies themselves will realize in 2026 that these figures are unsustainable".
➠ Economy - Fed vs. unemployment:
- The unemployment rate in the US has reached its maximum since 2021 and continues to rise.
- The Fed is preparing for a further rate cut to support the labor market.
- Capital Group warns: "The optimism embedded in the quotes leaves no room for disappointment".
➠ Conclusion: Analysts expect growth, but admit that 2026 will be a stress test. History shows that when the Fed cuts rates without a recession, stocks give an average +28% annual return. But if the economy can't withstand it, a correction is possible.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
#BTC/USDT M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi @Hawk_trading_bot …
#BTC/USDT M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi
@Hawk_trading_bot @ostiumbot
@VooiAppBot
🐦 @pigeon_trade_bot
↗️ gains.trade
↗️ ostium.com
↗️ vooi.io
Prove your #trading skills and get funded!
🥕 carrotfunding.io
Unlock your freedom
💱 mtpelerin.com
Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi
@Hawk_trading_bot @ostiumbot
@VooiAppBot
🐦 @pigeon_trade_bot
Prove your #trading skills and get funded!
🥕 carrotfunding.io
Unlock your freedom
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Since 2000, RUSSIA and CHINA have accumulated MORE #GOLD RESERVES THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD.
CHINA AND RUSSIA = THE ELEPHANTS IN THE ROOM.
CHINA AND RUSSIA = THE ELEPHANTS IN THE ROOM.
Thursday, Dec 25 2025, 12:00 UTC time
🔔📋 Latest Important Headlines
📈✅ China — Export licences unlikely to curb excess steel flows
China's move on export licences for steel is viewed by Japanese industry lobbyists as unlikely to materially reduce surplus exports. Implication: continued global steel oversupply could weigh on commodity-linked currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) and EM exporters, keeping pressure on steel producers and associated FX/commodity pairs.
🔔🔖 Macro outlook for Bitcoin into 2026
Analysts highlight post-$126k scenarios driven by macro shifts — liquidity, rates, and institutional adoption remain key drivers. Market takeaway: BTC may react strongly to US rate paths and dollar strength; a dovish surprise could fuel further upside, while persistent Fed hawkishness risks sharp drawdowns. Traders should watch USDJPY, DXY and risk-on/-off flows.
🔔📌 FX & market implications — short summary for traders
- Strong USD or Fed hawkishness → pressure on BTC and commodity FX (AUD, NZD, CAD).
- Continued China steel exports → downside risk for iron-ore and AUD; NZD may follow risk sentiment.
- Cross-assets: watch DXY moves, US yields and China export signals for directional bias.
🔔📋 Quick Trade Ideas / Watchlist
- Monitor DXY vs BTC correlation; size risk on Fed data.
- Short AUD/JPY on weaker commodity demand or China export headlines.
- Hedge commodity exposure if China steel exports remain elevated.
🔔📋 Latest Important Headlines
📈✅ China — Export licences unlikely to curb excess steel flows
China's move on export licences for steel is viewed by Japanese industry lobbyists as unlikely to materially reduce surplus exports. Implication: continued global steel oversupply could weigh on commodity-linked currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) and EM exporters, keeping pressure on steel producers and associated FX/commodity pairs.
🔔🔖 Macro outlook for Bitcoin into 2026
Analysts highlight post-$126k scenarios driven by macro shifts — liquidity, rates, and institutional adoption remain key drivers. Market takeaway: BTC may react strongly to US rate paths and dollar strength; a dovish surprise could fuel further upside, while persistent Fed hawkishness risks sharp drawdowns. Traders should watch USDJPY, DXY and risk-on/-off flows.
🔔📌 FX & market implications — short summary for traders
- Strong USD or Fed hawkishness → pressure on BTC and commodity FX (AUD, NZD, CAD).
- Continued China steel exports → downside risk for iron-ore and AUD; NZD may follow risk sentiment.
- Cross-assets: watch DXY moves, US yields and China export signals for directional bias.
🔔📋 Quick Trade Ideas / Watchlist
- Monitor DXY vs BTC correlation; size risk on Fed data.
- Short AUD/JPY on weaker commodity demand or China export headlines.
- Hedge commodity exposure if China steel exports remain elevated.
Stay nimble — macro & China supply cues are the centerpieces for FX and crypto positioning.Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🌎2025 GDP Map
Who’s Really Driving Global Commodity Demand Next?
This chart is a reminder that the world economy is still top heavy.
But the marginal growth that moves oil, LNG, copper, and freight is shifting fast.
The scoreboard (GDP, 2025):
•🇺🇸 United States: $30.6T
•🇨🇳 China: $19.4T
•🇩🇪 Germany: $5.0T (Europe’s anchor)
•🇯🇵 Japan: $4.3T
•🇮🇳 India: $4.1T (the market nobody can ignore now)
•🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: $1.3T. 🇦🇪 UAE: $569B (outsized influence vs GDP through energy exports and capital)
Why it matters for commodities:
•Oil and LNG demand is increasing in Asia Even when barrels are produced in the Americas or the Middle East, the marginal buyer is shifting east. That changes spreads, freight, and contract power.
•Metals demand follows infrastructure. India plus ASEAN growth is copper, aluminum, steel, and power grid buildout. It is less headline driven, more relentless.
•Europe stays large, but it is mature. The story is not “Europe disappears” The story is slower incremental demand, tighter policy constraints, and more import competition.
If you had to pick one engine for incremental commodity demand from 2026 to 2030. Is it India/ASEAN, or the US?
#Commodities #Macro #Energy #Oil #LNG #Metals #Geopolitics
Who’s Really Driving Global Commodity Demand Next?
This chart is a reminder that the world economy is still top heavy.
But the marginal growth that moves oil, LNG, copper, and freight is shifting fast.
The scoreboard (GDP, 2025):
•🇺🇸 United States: $30.6T
•🇨🇳 China: $19.4T
•🇩🇪 Germany: $5.0T (Europe’s anchor)
•🇯🇵 Japan: $4.3T
•🇮🇳 India: $4.1T (the market nobody can ignore now)
•🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: $1.3T. 🇦🇪 UAE: $569B (outsized influence vs GDP through energy exports and capital)
Why it matters for commodities:
•Oil and LNG demand is increasing in Asia Even when barrels are produced in the Americas or the Middle East, the marginal buyer is shifting east. That changes spreads, freight, and contract power.
•Metals demand follows infrastructure. India plus ASEAN growth is copper, aluminum, steel, and power grid buildout. It is less headline driven, more relentless.
•Europe stays large, but it is mature. The story is not “Europe disappears” The story is slower incremental demand, tighter policy constraints, and more import competition.
If you had to pick one engine for incremental commodity demand from 2026 to 2030. Is it India/ASEAN, or the US?
#Commodities #Macro #Energy #Oil #LNG #Metals #Geopolitics
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🤑 The Fed's balance sheet increased by $17,659,000,000 in one week! ▪️Miran, Fed Chair: - I advocate for faster rate cuts to get closer to a neutral level. - The Fed's monetary policy should be focused on 2027, not on past data. - The growing role of stablecoins…
According to Polymarket trading data, another rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in January 2026 appears unlikely.
It seems the Fed may pause rate cuts again. 🚨
It seems the Fed may pause rate cuts again. 🚨