Wednesday, Dec 24 2025, 12:00 UTC time

📋 US — Growth, markets & policy
✅ Strong Q3 US GDP surprises to the upside, sending the S&P 500 to record closes and lifting commodity demand hopes; Treasury yields rose then steadied. Markets now price fewer Fed cuts — a key risk for equities and fixed income. Student loan collections to resume for borrowers in default, lifting policy/taxpayer focus. US futures mixed into the holiday-shortened session. 

✅ Dollar and rates: Dollar near a 12-week low after the risk-on reaction; US 10‑yr yield drifted down from post-GDP highs. Impact: FX pairs and commodity-linked currencies reacting to both growth and rate-expectation shifts.

🔖 China & Europe — Trade, tariffs, commodities
✅ China ramps tariffs on EU dairy to protect domestic producers — risk of retaliation and moderation in China-to-Europe export growth. Tariff changes may relieve China’s raw milk oversupply but raise trade tensions with the EU. 

✅ Belgium & Netherlands data: Belgium PPI fell sharply; Dutch Q3 GDP revised up and current account stable — mixed euro-area signals that matter for ECB policy outlook.

📌 Russia, Korea, Japan & Australia / NZ — Regional moves
✅ Russia sets a grain export quota (20M tons for Feb–Jun 2026) — implications for global grain flows and commodity prices. 
✅ Korea: Major shareholders failed to block Korea Zinc’s share sale for a US smelter — cross-border M&A and supply-chain implications. 
✅ Japan (BoJ): Minutes signal the BoJ is eyeing further tightening and warns on risks — yen and JGBs remain sensitive to shifting BoJ cues. 
✅ Australia / New Zealand: AUD hits 14–15 month highs; NZD at three‑month highs — driven by stronger US growth, commodity strength and relative rate differentials.

📋 Commodities & markets
✅ Gold & Silver surged to fresh records (gold above $4,500; silver all-time highs) — a notable safe-haven / liquidity signal amid policy uncertainty. 
✅ Copper at/near record highs — buoyed by robust US GDP boosting demand prospects and a softer dollar; implications for miners and commodity-linked FX (AUD, CAD). 
✅ Bitcoin & crypto: Volatility compressed around ~$87k — divergent analyst outlook for 2026; monitor risk assets correlation to macro moves.

🔖 Other regional notes
✅ Turkey — lira extends controlled weakening; stocks near record highs. 
✅ Slovenia — tourist arrivals fell but business morale near 3-year high. 
✅ Indonesia, Albania and other EM notes surfaced but with limited direct spillovers to major FX/DM policy today.

Key takeaways for traders:
- US growth beats raise rate-risk for markets; fewer Fed cuts priced.
- Strong commodities (copper, gold, silver) support AUD and commodity FX; watch CAD/BRL for spillovers.
- China-EU tariff friction raises trade risk premium — watch EUR/CNY and EU exporters.
- BoJ tightening talk and Russia grain quotas = idiosyncratic drivers for JPY and agri commodities.

Watch list: US CPI/Employment moves, ECB/BoJ minutes, China tariff developments, copper & precious metals price action.

YTD metals have have outpaced crypto.

#Silver +128%
Platinum +117%
#Gold +64%
#Copper +34%
Lithium: +30%

While #BTC is roughly −7% and #ETH −13%.

If liquidity keeps improving in 2026 and flows move further out the risk curve, the catch-up move in BTC could be sharp.

➢U.S. stock markets will close at 1:00 p.m on Wednesday. The bond markets will close at 2:00 p.m.

➢The U.S. markets and most global markets will be closed Thursday for observance of the Christmas holiday.

➢Some global markets will be closed Friday as the Boxing Day holiday is observed in the UK, Canada, Australia, and South Africa.

🤖 This is the AI gold rush, quantified.

Over the past 12 months, the companies enabling AI at scale have reported massive revenues:

◼️ NVIDIA $NVDA: $187.1B
◼️ Broadcom #AVGO: $63.9B
◼️ Intel $INTC: $53.4B
◼️ $AMD: $32.0B

At the same time, AI spending has gone up from $25B in 2015 to $512B in 2025.

And it isn’t just about software, it’s about chips, data centers, and compute.

Which AI plays, if any, are you looking forward to in 2026?

#LeverageShares

AI compute demand is accelerating. Fast.

Here’s how compute demand (exaFLOP/s) is expected to evolve from 2024 to 2030 across key AI use cases:

🤖 Agentic AI: 163 → 19,627
🏢 Enterprise AI: 12 → 326
💬 Chatbots: 2 → 44

What trends will this kick off in 2026?

🎅 As the year comes to an end, markets often experience a seasonal phenomenon known as the Santa Claus Rally.

This is a period where investor activity tends to increase around the end of December and early January.

Last 5 trading days of the year + first 5 of the new one over the past 25 years:

📈 19 positive years
📉 6 negative years

Are you expecting a present or coal from the markets this year?

$CIFR acquired a 200 MW Ohio site called Ulysses with secured power and PJM access which marks its first expansion outside Texas.

This positions Cipher as a landlord in the AI Utility era by owning power and sites others will rent.

Everyone else used M&A to protect old distribution models.

$NFLX built a direct global distribution layer and forced content to compete on its terms.

🎬 Yet another plot twist in the Warner Bros $WBD takeover battle.

Paramount Skydance $PSKY has reinforced its $108.4bn all-cash bid, now backed by a $40.4bn personal guarantee from Larry Ellison, after Warner Bros raised concerns over deal financing.

While Netflix $NFLX still remains the favourite, anything could still happen in this blockbuster of a deal. Regardless of the outcome, this is bound to be one of the biggest media and streaming deals of all time.

#Google $GOOGL is the only company that owns the entire AI stack.

1. Chips: TPUs
2. Infrastructure: Google Cloud
3. Foundation Models: Deepmind
4. Applications: Gemini

Every layer matters.

The more layers you own, the bigger your advantage.

$CIFR/USD H4 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI