🇺🇸 US Initial Jobless Claims get released today at 08:30 AM (ET).

Expected: 224,000 claims.

A higher than expected number is bullish for risk assets & bearish for the USD.

Why?

Because the Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain high employment and low inflation.

Inflation is low, if jobs data is weak, it gives the Fed more reason to lower interest rates, which is bullish for risk assets.

Wednesday, Dec 24 2025, 12:00 UTC time

📋 US — Growth, markets & policy
✅ Strong Q3 US GDP surprises to the upside, sending the S&P 500 to record closes and lifting commodity demand hopes; Treasury yields rose then steadied. Markets now price fewer Fed cuts — a key risk for equities and fixed income. Student loan collections to resume for borrowers in default, lifting policy/taxpayer focus. US futures mixed into the holiday-shortened session. 

✅ Dollar and rates: Dollar near a 12-week low after the risk-on reaction; US 10‑yr yield drifted down from post-GDP highs. Impact: FX pairs and commodity-linked currencies reacting to both growth and rate-expectation shifts.

🔖 China & Europe — Trade, tariffs, commodities
✅ China ramps tariffs on EU dairy to protect domestic producers — risk of retaliation and moderation in China-to-Europe export growth. Tariff changes may relieve China’s raw milk oversupply but raise trade tensions with the EU. 

✅ Belgium & Netherlands data: Belgium PPI fell sharply; Dutch Q3 GDP revised up and current account stable — mixed euro-area signals that matter for ECB policy outlook.

📌 Russia, Korea, Japan & Australia / NZ — Regional moves
✅ Russia sets a grain export quota (20M tons for Feb–Jun 2026) — implications for global grain flows and commodity prices. 
✅ Korea: Major shareholders failed to block Korea Zinc’s share sale for a US smelter — cross-border M&A and supply-chain implications. 
✅ Japan (BoJ): Minutes signal the BoJ is eyeing further tightening and warns on risks — yen and JGBs remain sensitive to shifting BoJ cues. 
✅ Australia / New Zealand: AUD hits 14–15 month highs; NZD at three‑month highs — driven by stronger US growth, commodity strength and relative rate differentials.

📋 Commodities & markets
✅ Gold & Silver surged to fresh records (gold above $4,500; silver all-time highs) — a notable safe-haven / liquidity signal amid policy uncertainty. 
✅ Copper at/near record highs — buoyed by robust US GDP boosting demand prospects and a softer dollar; implications for miners and commodity-linked FX (AUD, CAD). 
✅ Bitcoin & crypto: Volatility compressed around ~$87k — divergent analyst outlook for 2026; monitor risk assets correlation to macro moves.

🔖 Other regional notes
✅ Turkey — lira extends controlled weakening; stocks near record highs. 
✅ Slovenia — tourist arrivals fell but business morale near 3-year high. 
✅ Indonesia, Albania and other EM notes surfaced but with limited direct spillovers to major FX/DM policy today.

Key takeaways for traders:
- US growth beats raise rate-risk for markets; fewer Fed cuts priced.
- Strong commodities (copper, gold, silver) support AUD and commodity FX; watch CAD/BRL for spillovers.
- China-EU tariff friction raises trade risk premium — watch EUR/CNY and EU exporters.
- BoJ tightening talk and Russia grain quotas = idiosyncratic drivers for JPY and agri commodities.

Watch list: US CPI/Employment moves, ECB/BoJ minutes, China tariff developments, copper & precious metals price action.

YTD metals have have outpaced crypto.

#Silver +128%
Platinum +117%
#Gold +64%
#Copper +34%
Lithium: +30%

While #BTC is roughly −7% and #ETH −13%.

If liquidity keeps improving in 2026 and flows move further out the risk curve, the catch-up move in BTC could be sharp.

➢U.S. stock markets will close at 1:00 p.m on Wednesday. The bond markets will close at 2:00 p.m.

➢The U.S. markets and most global markets will be closed Thursday for observance of the Christmas holiday.

➢Some global markets will be closed Friday as the Boxing Day holiday is observed in the UK, Canada, Australia, and South Africa.

🤖 This is the AI gold rush, quantified.

Over the past 12 months, the companies enabling AI at scale have reported massive revenues:

◼️ NVIDIA $NVDA: $187.1B
◼️ Broadcom #AVGO: $63.9B
◼️ Intel $INTC: $53.4B
◼️ $AMD: $32.0B

At the same time, AI spending has gone up from $25B in 2015 to $512B in 2025.

And it isn’t just about software, it’s about chips, data centers, and compute.

Which AI plays, if any, are you looking forward to in 2026?

#LeverageShares

AI compute demand is accelerating. Fast.

Here’s how compute demand (exaFLOP/s) is expected to evolve from 2024 to 2030 across key AI use cases:

🤖 Agentic AI: 163 → 19,627
🏢 Enterprise AI: 12 → 326
💬 Chatbots: 2 → 44

What trends will this kick off in 2026?

🎅 As the year comes to an end, markets often experience a seasonal phenomenon known as the Santa Claus Rally.

This is a period where investor activity tends to increase around the end of December and early January.

Last 5 trading days of the year + first 5 of the new one over the past 25 years:

📈 19 positive years
📉 6 negative years

Are you expecting a present or coal from the markets this year?