💥2026 – a year of change and struggle for profit.

Source: OAK Research annual report.

1) The most anticipated events in 2026.
- ICO and airdrop of Playmarket, airdrop of BASE, TGE on OpenSea, launch of the MegaETH mainnet #MEGA, AAVE V4 #AAVE and a mobile app (new version of the DeFi lending flagship), Season 3 of Hyperliquid #HYPE (continuation of the reward program), switching fees in favor of token holders #UNI (fee switch in Uniswap), appointment of a new head of the Federal Reserve, inclusion of crypto ETFs in 401(k) retirement accounts, payments to Mt. Gox creditors (return of ~$9b in BTC).

2) Bitcoin is now a macro asset
- 2025 was a transitional year: BTC ended the year roughly where it started.
- The 4-year cycle model no longer works.
- BTC's price depends on macroeconomics and ETFs, not retail.
- BTC dominance > 60% drained liquidity from altcoins.

3) ETFs and DAT companies – new demand (and threat)
- 200+ companies own >1,000,000 BTC (>5% of the issuance).
- ETFs and DATs are the main channels for institutions.
- Risk: a compressed premium could collapse the sector.

4) Ethereum: the technology is there, the price isn't
- Ethereum's technological progress doesn't lead to price growth.
- The transition to L2 reduced fees and ETH burn, killing the "ultrasound money" narrative.
- There was a reorganization in the Ethereum Foundation.
- The task for 2026 is to explain why to hold ETH.

5) Hyperliquid – winner of the year and a symbol of "revenue meta"
- The main player of 2025 in DeFi. $1b+ in annual revenue, a team of 11 people. 99% of revenue is used to buy back #HYPE.
- The project has caught up with major CEXs on derivatives.
- A model of "AWS for liquidity" is forming.

6) The US legalizes crypto through stablecoins
- The passage of the GENIUS Act gave stablecoins clear rules of the game.
- Bitcoin is de facto recognized as a strategic reserve asset of the US.
- Crypto is no longer a fringe topic and has become part of the financial system.
- The downside: the commercialization of politics has intensified (memocoins from politicians, conflicts of interest).

7) Stablecoins – an instrument of dollar expansion
- #USDT and #USDC control the lion's share of the market. Stablecoin issuers have become one of the largest holders of US government bonds.
- Stablecoins are a payment rail/infrastructure for tokenized assets (RWA) and DeFi.

8) RWA: tokenized government bonds – the main case for institutions
- Tokenized US Treasury bonds are the most mature and fastest-growing sector of RWA. The market has grown exponentially over the past two years.
- Tokenization enables compatibility with DeFi and instant settlements.
- The link with TradFi is getting stronger – systemic shocks will be transmitted faster.

9) Prediction markets have gone mainstream
- Polymarket and Kalshi are a duopoly. Volumes have reached tens of billions.
- The launch of tokens in 2026 is the main test of sustainability.

10) L2: harsh selection
- Capital is concentrating with the leaders (Base, Arbitrum).
- Most L2s are losing TVL, activity, and token prices.
- The problem is that tokens don't capture value.
- The future lies in convenience and integration, not new networks.

11) Airdrops: the classic model is dead
- Most tokens after an airdrop have lost 70-90% of their value.
- Retroactive giveaways attract hunters, not real users, and destroy ecosystems.
- Projects are moving to profit sharing, ICO mechanics, or abandoning tokens altogether.

12) Narratives for 2026: Privacy and Crypto + AI
- Interest in private transactions and privacy infrastructure is returning
- The focus has shifted from tokenization models to markets for AI computation, verification, and coordination. Crypto is useful to AI as a layer for settlements, trust, and automatic payments. Bittensor (#TAO) is the most mature ecosystem at the intersection of crypto and AI.

Making some improvements for @pigeon_trade_bot for #Polymarket:

- quicker scanner (current cap is per one run min for regular users)

- more robust integration with the 15 min markets

- better tools to scan / copy whales or specific accounts

“it’s not the size of the pigeon but how you you use it”
- sun zhu

Goldman Sachs: Global Growth Set to Beat Consensus Again in 2026

GS forecasts stronger GDP than street estimates across most major economies.

Highlights:
US: 2.6% vs consensus 2.0%
Euro Area: 1.3% vs 1.1%
China: 4.8% vs 4.5%
World: 2.8% vs 2.5%

EMs like India (6.7%) & Brazil (2.3%) also upgraded.

If GS is right, expect upside surprises for risk assets.Bull case for 2026 just got stronger.

#Economy #GDP #Markets #Investing #GoldmanSachs

The World’s Largest Primary #Silver Mines in 2024 🌏

🚨 Wall Street's 2026 Copper Calls Are Heating Up

Major banks mostly bullish on the red metal:

- UBS: Very bullish → up to ~$13,000/ton by Dec 2026

- J.P. Morgan: Bullish → ~$12,500/ton Q2, avg $12,075

- Citi: Most bullish → >$13,000/ton (Q2), 12-14k range

- Goldman Sachs: Moderate/mixed → $10,000–$11,400/ton

- Deutsche Bank: Mildly bullish → ~$10,600/ton, peaks >$11,000

Consensus leaning toward strong upside on supply constraints + demand from electrification/AI/data centers.

Copper bulls loading up for 2026.

#Copper #Commodities #Mining #EnergyTransition #Investing

Tuesday, Dec 23 2025, 12:00 UTC time

📋 US MARKETS & RATES 
✅ Wall St futures tick higher; US stocks opened in the green as 10‑year Treasury yields hold steady — markets await upcoming GDP data for clearer Fed rate signals.

🔖 USD & FX 
📌 Dollar weakens; offshore yuan hits a 15‑month high while USD/JPY falls as yen soars today — dollar softness supporting EM and commodity currencies.

📋 GOLD & COMMODITIES 
✅ Gold scales a new all‑time peak as safe‑haven demand rises amid global uncertainty; spot prices plunged earlier on low pre‑holiday demand but rebounded.

🔖 EUROPE: FRANCE & MARKETS 
📌 France rushes emergency budget law to avert shutdown after talks collapse — CAC 40 dips as investors eye the stopgap budget; France 10‑yr OAT yields ease slightly.

📋 EUROPE: MACRO & MARKETS 
✅ DAX at 1‑month high; European stocks set for muted open. German import prices mixed (bigest monthly rise in 20 months vs. -1.9% y/y). EU car registrations +2.1% in Nov.

🔖 SPAIN & ITALY 
📌 Spain Q3 GDP confirmed +0.6% q/q; PPI sliding on energy prices. Italy 10‑yr BTPs pull back amid market pause.

📋 GERMANY & NORDICS 
✅ Sweden producer prices fall sharply; Swedish krona hits near 4‑year high. Finland jobless rate rises to 5‑month high; Norway loan debt growth steady.

🔖 SWITZERLAND 
📌 Swiss investor sentiment falls in December — watch CHF flows as global rates and safe‑haven calculus shift.

📋 UK & IRELAND (ENGLAND included) 
✅ Market attention on UK rates and European spillovers; general risk tone supportive for equities despite fiscal headlines in France.

🔖 ASIA: CHINA, JAPAN, KOREA & AUSTRALIA 
📌 China chip‑equipment imports under scrutiny for trade development; offshore yuan strength. Japan yen surges today. Australia: AUD extends gains; 10‑yr yield near 2‑yr high; Qtrly CPI still guiding RBA rate expectations.

📋 CANADA 
✅ Canadian themes dominated by global rate moves and commodity swings — CAD supported when commodity prices and risk appetite rise.

🔖 RUSSIA & IRAN (GEOPOLITICAL WATCH) 
📌 Geopolitical tensions keep safe‑haven flows in focus; Fitch upgrades Ukraine to CCC — developments likely to influence European risk premia and energy markets.

📋 EM MARKETS & LATAM (BRAZIL) 
✅ EM stocks rally toward best year since 2017 on soft inflation and policy support; Brazilian and other EM FX benefit from weaker dollar and risk on flows.

🔖 OTHER EUROZONE DATA 
📌 Belgium inflation moderates in Dec; Austria current account swings to deficit; Hungary current account surplus widens in Q3; Poland unemployment steady at 5.6%.

📋 GLOBAL TRADE & DEALS 
✅ Indonesia and US near tariff deal signing in January — potential positive for regional trade and EM sentiment; Taiwan export orders surge in Nov supporting tech cycle optimism.

AI Boom Revives Obsolete Peaker Plants

The Hidden Cost of Data Centers

Surging power demand from AI data centers is bringing decades old "peaker" fossil fuel plants back online across the US.

Key facts:

In PJM (largest US grid): 60% of planned retirements postponed/cancelled this year mostly peakers
These inefficient, high-pollution plants (often in low-income communities) now profitable again

Example: Fisk plant in Chicago's Pilsen neighborhood reactivated

Trade-off: Prevents blackouts but boosts local pollution & delays clean energy transition.

The real energy crisis behind the AI hype.

#AI #DataCenters #Energy #PowerGrid #Environment #Investing

📈Copper Hits Fresh All-Time High

Nearing $12,000/ton!

LME copper surges to new record amid:

Trade turmoil & tariff fears disrupting supply chains

Extremely tight physical markets (low inventories, mine disruptions)

Bullish long-term demand outlook: AI data centers, electrification, grid upgrades

The red metal is screaming "supply crunch" while demand accelerators kick in.

#Copper #Commodities #Mining #EnergyTransition #Investing