Macro hedge funds are on FIRE in 2025

Best returns since at least 2008

+16% YTD 💥

Crushing recent years:
2023 +7%, 2021 +13%, most others low single digits
Chaos = opportunity.
Rate volatility, commodities, geopolitics macro traders are eating.
When markets go wild, the macro gods deliver.

Source: HFRI

#HedgeFunds #Macro #Investing #Markets #Finance

Monday, Dec 22 2025, 12:00 UTC time

📋 ✅ Latest Important Headlines

📌 🔖 Global rates & bonds — US and European yields rally: US 10Y and Treasury yields rose, reversing last week’s drop as markets price less dovish Fed prospects. Bund yields hit their highest since Oct 2023; France 10Y OAT at multi-year highs; Italy 10Y BTP up on ECB hawkishness and budget worries. Japan’s longer-end yields and Gilt yields also ticked higher. 

📌 🔖 FX & commodities — Dollar steady; Euro near two-month high; Sterling firm: Dollar traded broadly steady in a holiday-shortened week. Euro holds near a two-month high. Sterling rose after U.K. Q3 GDP data and reduced near-term rate cut odds. Gold and silver hit record highs as rate-cut expectations and safe-haven flows boosted bullion.

📌 🔖 Asia & Pacific — Yields and equities: Australia 10Y rose to a 2‑year high. New Zealand and Australian stocks started higher; NZD strengthened. Asian shares advanced as Yen slid; Hang Seng closed up ~0.4%.

📌 🔖 Trade deals & geopolitics: New Zealand–India FTA sealed — New Delhi pushes global trade ties; NZ confirms agreement. Indonesia signed an FTA with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. Russia → China LNG flows hit a record as buyers largely ignore sanctions — notable for energy trade patterns.

📌 🔖 U.S. politics & trade: Trump-era trade moves continue to reshape flows — studies show German auto exports were hit by Trump tariffs. Uncertainty from global trade policy may persist into 2026.

📌 🔖 UK economy — Very modest growth: ONS confirmed Q3 GDP growth at +0.1% (annual +1.3% unchanged). Current account gap narrowed — data kept sterling supported and trimmed immediate BOE cut expectations.

📌 🔖 Europe data snap: Mixed signals — Estonia producer prices at 7‑month high; Finland producer inflation steady; Spain consumer credit near 18‑year high; Italy PPI fell for first time in a year; Greece current account deficit widened. Poland industrial sentiment and retail sales softened.

📌 🔖 Central bank chatter: Market commentary notes Treasury/Gilt moves await key GDP prints. Separately, an ex-BOJ policymaker suggested rates could rise to ~1.5% under Governor Ueda — notable for JPY and global yield dynamics.

📌 🔖 Labor & inflation flashes: Iceland inflation at 11‑month high; producer inflation prints in Iceland/Estonia elevated. Norway jobless rate ticked up. Luxembourg and Slovenia show labor softness; Greece growth forecasts modestly optimistic for 2025.

📌 🔖 Market takeaways for FX/FX traders: Higher global yields and persistent hawkish central bank signals support the dollar and major yields; sterling and EUR have near-term strength after UK/EU data; commodities (gold/silver) buoyed by rate-cut repricing. Watch US GDP, upcoming central bank signals and geopolitical trade developments (NZ‑India FTA, Russia‑China LNG) for directional moves.

End of brief

Monday, Dec 22 2025, 12:05 UTC time

📋 Latest Important Headlines

✅ Europe–Jordan trade & investment growth
🔖 Source: ZAWYA / TradingView 
📌 European Chamber reports rising trade and investment flows between Jordan and the EU. EU imports/exports with the region are expanding, driven by stronger regulatory cooperation and investment projects. Market angle: improved EU–Middle East connectivity may support euro-linked trade financing and regional supply-chain resilience.

🔖 US–Jordan trade ties to strengthen in 2026
✅ Source: ZAWYA / TradingView 
📌 Jordan expects a major boost in trade with the United States from 2026, per government minister—suggesting upcoming agreements or policy steps to expand bilateral commerce. Market angle: potential rise in US dollar-denominated trade flows and demand for logistics/finance services tied to increased US–regional trade.

🔖 Forex & macro implications
✅ Key takeaways for markets 
📌 1) Euro and USD flows may see upward pressure from stronger EU/US trade engagement in the Middle East. 
2) Increased trade can support regional currency stability where trade invoicing or investment converts to USD/EUR. 
3) Watch for formal agreements announced ahead of 2026 that could trigger FX volatility and cross-border capital movements.

🔖 Watchlist
✅ Monitor official EU/US trade announcements, logistics deals, and timeline updates toward 2026 for trading opportunities in EUR/USD, EM FX hedges, and regional bank credits.

Indonesia just signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union💥

Signed Dec 21 in St. Petersburg

covering Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan.

Expected to:Double trade in 3-5 years

Boost Indonesian exports (palm oil, food, textiles)

Open EAEU markets for energy, ag & industrial goods

Amid global trade shifts, Jakarta diversifies with BRICS & Eurasian partners.

Geopolitics meets economics.

Sources: Reuters

#Indonesia #Russia #EAEU #FTA #Trade #BRICS #Geopolitics #Energy

#Silver Market Balance (2016-2025F) 📊

#GOLD - new ATH
#SILVER - new ATH
S&P 500 - near ATH
NASDAQ - near ATH
DOW - new ATH

While #Bitcoin is down -28% from its peak, having the worst Q4 in the last 7 years without any negative news, FUD, or scandal.

There is no explanation for this except pure market manipulation.

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