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Wednesday, Dec 10 2025, 12:00 UTC time

📈 📋 US / Fed Watch
✅ Markets steady ahead of the Fed decision — US stocks hold ground as Treasury yields near 3-month highs after a $39bn 10‑yr sale at 4.175%. Bond selloff pushes global yields up; Fed projections expected to show tempered inflation outlook. Bitcoin and gold steadied pre-FOMC, while oil pauses ahead of Ukraine peace talks and the rate decision.

🇨🇳 🔖 China
📌 IMF & ADB upbeat — IMF flags China on-track to hit growth targets; ADB raises 2025 Asia‑Pacific GDP forecast to 5.1% and highlights regional resilience despite tariff pressures.

🇷🇺 📋 Russia
✅ Sberbank outlook — CEO expects Russia’s 2026 GDP ~1% and anticipates key rate easing toward ~12% by end‑2026. EU ambassadors approve phasing out Russian gas imports — a major geopolitical shift for energy markets.

🇬🇧 🔖 UK / Europe
📌 Rates & yields — UK 10‑yr gilt yields climb to 3‑week highs; France OAT yields near multi‑month highs. ECB officials (Simkus, Lagarde) signal limited need for further cuts and a cautious view on eurozone policy. Euro holds above $1.165 ahead of Fed.

🇫🇷 📋 France
✅ Budget & growth — Bank of France chief aims for a 4.8% deficit target (unlikely). Bank of France to slightly upgrade GDP forecasts; CAC‑40 slides on Fed watch and budget approval concerns.

🇮🇹 🔖 Italy
📌 Industrial weakness — Italy industrial output fell more than expected; 10‑yr BTP yields climb amid global bond selloff.

🇩🇪 📋 Germany / Europe markets
✅ DAX cautious — European markets set for lower open; global bond yields surge as rate expectations shift. ECB commentary keeps markets on edge.

🇯🇵 🔖 Japan
📌 FX & equities — Japanese shares rise as the yen weakens; cross‑asset flows reacting to US rate outlook.

🇦🇺 📋 Australia / NZ
✅ FX & data — AUD nears 3‑month high. New Zealand tourist arrivals +9.4% YoY in Oct; migration +2,400. NZ stocks extend losses despite data.

🇨🇦 🔖 Canada
📌 Monetary policy — Bank of Canada to keep rates at 2.25% after strong data bolsters hawkish case; TSX futures dip ahead of BoC and Fed decisions.

🇯🇵/🇰🇷/🇯🇵 📋 Asia equity & trade notes
✅ Equities mixed — Hang Seng reverses early losses; Japan and Korea markets sensitive to USD/yields. India & US step up bilateral talks; Amazon to invest >$35bn in India (trade/tech spillovers).

🛢️ 🔖 Commodities
📌 Oil & metals — Oil holds a two‑day drop but steadies; silver scales fresh all‑time highs; gold steady pre‑FOMC.

📊 📋 Other notable Europe data
✅ Mixed activity — Sweden GDP down 0.3% in Oct; Norway inflation eased but less than expected; Czech inflation at 2.1% y/y; Finland industrial output at 5‑month high; assorted Eastern European trade gaps and industrial contractions reported.

Quick take: Markets are dominated by Fed uncertainty — US yields and global bond repricing are the key drivers. Watch USD, US yields, euro/GBP, JPY, AUD, and commodity moves into the FOMC decision.

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Top 100 24h Gainers 🚀

NIGHT    $0.0655    +64.80%
OKB        $122.35    +7.93% 
XMR        $400.58    +7.24% 
M            $1.46        +7.05% 
XDC        $0.0501    +1.63% 

Top 100 24h Losers 🔻

SPX        $0.6397    -9.65% 
ENA        $0.2628    -8.98% 
AERO      $0.6397    -8.66% 
KAS        $0.0503    -8.57% 
IMX        $0.2910    -7.88%

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‼️ FED - decision on interest rate!

FACT.: 3.75% (-0.25%)
FORECAST.: 3.75%
PREDICTION.: 4.00%

❗️ ACCOMPANYING LETTER #FED

‼️ The Fed will launch the printing press (#QE ) on December 12.
▫️ Economic activity continues to grow at a moderate pace - the GDP forecast for 2025 is about 1.7%, for 2026 it's about 2.3%.
▫️ Consumer spending growth is continuing, but slowing down compared to the middle of the year.
▫️ Companies note a weakening of demand in certain sectors, especially those sensitive to rates.
▫️ The unemployment rate is gradually increasing, the forecast for the end of 2025 is about 4.5%, for 2026 it's 4.4%.
▫️ Job creation continues to slow down, the vacancy rate is decreasing, the labor market is normalizing.
▫️ Inflation risks have shifted upward - energy, services, housing, and increased consumer demand could slow down the effect of QE.
❗️ The Fed expects two rate cuts in 2025 totaling 50 bps.
❗️ For 2026, another reduction of 25 bps is envisaged, and for 2027 - also 25 bps.
▫️ The rate cut will depend on the data - inflation, wages, employment, financial conditions, and global factors.
▫️ Increased attention is paid to risks to financial stability.
❗️ Risks to the economy's prospects remain two-sided, but the balance is still tilted towards a weak labor market.
▫️ The Fed is ready to adjust policy in the event of "unforeseen events".
▫️ The long-term dual goal remains unchanged - maximum employment and inflation close to 2%.

Next: live text broadcast of the conference with J. Powell.

📰 Top Headlines

📋 Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% — Dow Jones Newswires\n
Implication: Steady BoC rate keeps CAD reaction muted short term. Markets interpret as data-dependent stance; hawkish surprises unlikely unless inflation re-accelerates.

✅ Fed lowers rates for 3rd time — Trading Economics\n
Implication: Easing cycle continues, weighing on USD and supporting risk assets. Lower rates signal central bank focus on growth and employment over near-term inflation containment.

🔖 Fed now sees Core PCE at 2.5% next year — Dow Jones Newswires\n
Implication: Higher-than-2% core PCE projection suggests Fed expects inflation to remain above target longer — could limit future rate cuts and keep USD supported relative to peers if data surprises.

📌 Fed GDP forecast raised to 2.3% — Dow Jones Newswires\n
Implication: Stronger growth outlook reduces recession odds, boosts risk sentiment and equities; mixed for FX — stronger growth tends to support the currency, but rate path matters more.

📋 Fed sees unemployment at 4.4% next year — Dow Jones Newswires\n
Implication: Lower unemployment projection supports consumption and growth narrative. If labour market tightness persists, Fed may hesitate to cut further, reinforcing USD resilience.

✅ Fed drops word 'low' describing unemployment — Dow Jones Newswires\n
Implication: Subtle shift in tone — less confident about labour slack. Markets read this as a tweak toward caution on easing; could reduce expectations for aggressive future cuts.

Summary and trade cues:
📌 FX Bias: Modestly USD-positive on revised Fed inflation and growth views, but rate cuts already priced limit upside. CAD neutral-to-slightly weaker due to BoC pause. Risk-on setup favors AUD/NZD vs USD if global growth data confirms the Fed's view.
📋 Strategy: Watch US inflation and payrolls for confirmation; fade rallies on USD if data disappoints growth/inflation. Use tight stops around major data events.

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⚡ Jerome Powell (head of the #FED):

✔ The labor market is gradually cooling down
✔ Macrodata indicate a moderate pace of economic growth.
✔ Inflation is still elevated.
✔ The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward.
✔ Available data indicate a low level of layoffs and hiring.
✔ Inflation indicators have risen as commodity inflation has intensified.
✔ Very little inflation data have been published since the October meeting.
✔ Deflation in the services sector continues.
❗️The balance of risks has changed in recent months due to the labor market.
✔ Further normalization of the situation over the last three meetings should help stabilize the labor market and reduce inflationary pressure.
✔ The rate is now in a reasonable range, close to neutral.
✔ The FED members' forecasts are subject to uncertainty, they are not a plan or a decision on the FED's DSP.
✔ The FED will make decisions from meeting to meeting.
❗️The FED believes that reserve balances have fallen to a level sufficient for balance sheet growth.
❗️Purchases of US government bonds are carried out solely for the purpose of reserve management.
❗️Purchases of US government bonds for reserve management may remain at a high level for several months to alleviate pressure on the money market. After that, we expect a reduction in purchases.
✔ The FED has removed the overall limit on repo operations.
❗️The rate cut of 75 bps since September gives us the opportunity to wait and see how the economy will develop.

⚡ Jerome Powell (head of the #FED:
(part 2)

✔ Permanent repo operations are a key tool for keeping the federal funds rate within the target range.
✔ The Fed is in a good position to determine the scale of further actions.
✔ Consumer spending remains resilient, and spending on artificial intelligence data centers supports investment in business. Spending on AI continues.
✔ The increase in the GDP growth forecast partly reflects the resilience of consumer demand. Fiscal policy will support the economy.
✔ We will receive a large amount of data before the January meeting.
✔ All present Fed chairmen agreed that inflation is too high.
✔ All Fed chairmen agree that the labor market has weakened and there are additional risks.
✔ The discussions are conducted thoughtfully and respectfully, taking into account different points of view, but we unite for decision-making, and today's decision received broad support.
✔ The consequences of the tariff increase are only just beginning to be felt.
✔ So far, the consequences of the interest rate cut are only just beginning to manifest themselves.
✔ Since macro data were not collected in October and the first half of November, they may be distorted, as some of them were not collected, so we need to look at the data with skepticism.
❗️I don't think a rate hike is a base scenario for anyone. I don't hear that.
✔ Some Fed members believe that we should pause and wait, while others believe that we should lower the rate one or more times.
❗️The disagreements concern whether to keep the interest rate at the current level or lower it.
✔ We believe that we have made progress in reducing inflation.
❗️The unemployment rate could rise by just one or two tenths.
❗️We believe that the number of new jobs is decreasing by -20K per month.

⚡ Jerome Powell (head of #FED):
(part 3)

✔ There is increasing evidence that inflation in the services sector has declined, and inflation in the goods sector is entirely due to tariffs.
✔ The increase in the federal funds rate indicates that we have sufficient reserves.
✔ We have reached a level of sufficient reserves faster than we expected.
❗️April 15 is approaching, and we need sufficient reserves on the day of federal tax payments.
✔ Reserves should remain stable relative to the overall economy.
❗️The Fed plans to purchase US government bonds over the next few months to weather the tax season.
✔ It doesn't seem that the economy is overheated.
✔ We believe that the increase in the number of jobs in recent months was overestimated by 60K.
✔ The labor market appears to be subject to significant risks of weakening.
✔ Tariffs are likely to lead to a one-time increase in prices. Tariffs are the main reason for the excess inflation.
✔ If we didn't have to worry about the labor market, the base rate would be higher.
✔ The supply of labor has sharply declined.
✔ AI is one of the reasons for the weak situation in the labor market, but not the main one.
✔ I don't know what economic impact the cancellation of tariffs will have.
✔ The housing market is facing significant problems.
✔ A 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate may not have a significant impact on housing affordability.
✔ There is a risk that inflation due to tariffs will be more persistent.

🏁 END

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