🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

Markets got a strong assist from rising expectations for another rate cut from the Fed in a few weeks. Odds of a December cut are now up to 83%. With “truflation” steady at a 2.4% year-over-year rate, the Fed can afford to lean a little deeper into the 3-zone to help offset the risk of the jobs market stall.

The long end of the bond market seems to agree, with the 10-year holding steady at a 4.01% yield.

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30 views17:12

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40 viewsedited 17:13

🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

🚨 Volatility Alert

➡️The FOMC takes place in just 5 days from now on Wednesday.

⏰ Countdown

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Hold on tight ✊! The #market could become volatile.😱

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39 views17:57

🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

💸 The Fed's balance sheet decreased by $16,638,000,000 in one week!

The Fed is currently in a "quiet period" (chairmen are not speaking yet) - the meeting will take place on December 10.

▪️ Reuters:
- 82% of economists expect a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed at the December 10 meeting.
- We expect two more rate cuts in 2026, with a final rate range of 3.0%-3.25%.
- There is a serious split within the Fed - at least 5 voting members are against further rate cuts.

▪️ Bank of America:
- We expect a 25 bps rate cut in December.
- The combination of the December rate cut and large-scale fiscal stimulus could make the Fed's DOT "too soft".

▪️ Morgan Stanley:
- The base scenario is a 25 bps rate cut in December.
- Followed by two more 25 bps cuts in January and April 2026.
- There may be "dissenting votes" within the Fed, but Jerome Powell will strive to maintain a tough tone.

▪️ JPMorgan:
- They have switched to the scenario of a 25 bps rate cut in December, abandoning their previous expectation of a January move.

▪️ Goldman Sachs:
- The weakness of the labor market "practically guaranteed" a 25 bps rate cut in December.

▪️ BlackRock:
- The Fed could cut rates again as early as next week.
- The labor market is losing momentum, justifying the December easing.
- The Fed's balance sheet is stabilizing - QT is over, but this is not QE.

📌 Market expectations (#FED rate):

- December 10: a 25 bps cut to 3.50-3.75%.
- January 28, 2026: PAUSE.
- March 18, 2026: PAUSE.
- April 29, 2026: a 25 bps cut to 3.25-3.50%.
- June 17, 2026: PAUSE.
- July 20, 2026: PAUSE.

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36 viewsedited 21:45

🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

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32 viewsedited 22:14

🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

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27 viewsedited 09:59

🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

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29 viewsedited 10:00

🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

🔥 Fed Week: Cut or Shock?

Markets are buzzing! 🐝 The Fed’s Wednesday meeting is almost here, and traders are pricing in an 86% chance of a 25bps cut. Stocks, crypto, risk assets — all eyes on this one. But remember: it’s not just about the cut. It’s about what the Fed says and how they say it.

NY Fed’s John Williams hinted at more easing, and weak ADP jobs data is keeping the narrative dovish. But Powell’s tone matters — remember his “driving in the fog” line from October? 🚗💨 Markets were skeptical then. If he now signals easing despite incomplete data, investors may raise eyebrows.

Oh, and a little twist: Trump reportedly picked Powell’s successor, NEC Director Kevin Hassett. Long-term uncertainty, anyone? 😏

Market vibes before the Fed:

Cut + dovish tone → Stocks and gold rally 🌟, USD softens 💸, EUR/USD could push past 1.1700.

Hold rates → Shock alert 🚨: stocks drop, USD surges, EUR/USD may fall below 1.1500.

Gold & Oil Watch ⚔️

Gold: hovering ~$4,200. Dovish Fed + shaky peace talks → could test all-time highs ~$4,381 🏆.

Oil: struggling under a downward trend. Peace framework could push toward Oct lows ~$56–$55 ⛽️.

Other central banks this week:

RBA: Inflation and China in focus. No cut expected. AUD/USD might rise above 0.6680 if Fed dovish, or dip to 0.6550.

BoC: Likely holds, slightly dovish tone could nudge USD/CAD toward 1.3887.

SNB: Watching deflation. CHF stable, but volatility possible.

Bottom line?
The Fed is at a crossroads. Markets are on edge. Hawks or doves — who will take the wheel this week? 🦅🕊

💬 Your turn: Cut or hold? What’s your play?

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17 viewsedited 10:09