Macro Releases: Friday, December 5 🗓

Time: 10.00 am ET. 😓
🇺🇸 PCE (Sep)
🇺🇸 Core PCE

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Friday, Dec 5 2025, 12:00 UTC time

📋 US / Markets & Fed watch 
✅ Risk assets mixed ahead of key U.S. PCE inflation print: Futures and global stocks steady to mixed as markets price PCE for Fed guidance. Yields broadly stable (US 10y steady); dollar set for a weekly decline as Fed-cut hopes linger. EM assets rally on rate-cut/soft-landing optimism.

🔖 Inflation & monetary policy 
✅ PCE in focus: Core/Headline PCE expected broadly steady — outcome to drive Fed path. BOJ hike odds firming for Dec 19. RBI unexpectedly cut rates; Indian rupee slid. Markets watching ECB/BoE guidance after mixed Eurozone/UK data.

📌 Precious metals & commodities 
✅ Gold steady-to-rising: Gold holding gains as yields/dollar move; traders view metal as hedge if central banks pivot. Copper rallies on supply-squeeze fears; natural gas hits 3-year high — energy and base metals showing supply tightness.

📋 US corporate / macro snippets 
✅ Stocks mixed: S&P flat on earnings/tech drags (Amazon), Nasdaq futures leading gains ahead of inflation. Initial jobless claims tumbled — softer labor signals add to Fed-rate debate.

🔖 China & FX 
✅ PBOC fixing: Reuters estimate sees USD/CNY reference ~7.0751. USTR calls for smaller, balanced China trade & tighter USMCA enforcement — trade tensions remain an undercurrent.

📌 Europe: growth, yields & data 
✅ Eurozone & Germany: Eurozone Q3 GDP revised up; German factory orders beat and rose further — signs of resilience but growth outlook for Germany tepid into 2026. Bund yields near 3-month highs. UK house prices stagnate; pound climbs to six-week high. BoE terminal rate debate continues.

📋 Japan & Asia-Pacific 
✅ BOJ hawkish nerves: Japanese shares slip on rate-hike fears; Asia FX reacting to Fed/BOJ expectations. PBOC/FX moves and BoJ signals driving regional flows.

🔖 Russia, India, Brazil & EM moves 
✅ FX & geopolitics: Russian ruble near 3-year high. India and Russia deepen strategic/ trade ties amid US pressure. Brazil’s trade surplus narrowed but equities (Ibovespa) hit record highs. South African rand at 34-month high.

📌 Fixed income & bonds 
✅ Global bond market: U.S./Eurozone/UK yields stable-to-higher ahead of PCE; gilts and bunds react to inflation signals. Treasury yields edging lower in short window but watch PCE-driven volatility.

📋 Key takeaways for FX & macro traders 
✅ Event risk central: US PCE (and subsequent Fed guidance) is the main mover — expect USD volatility, shifts in yields, and commodity reactions. Monitor BOJ, PBOC fixes, RBI stance and European data for cross-asset flows.

Stay nimble — PCE outcome will reset short-term rate and FX pricing.

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🔥 US macroeconomic data (PCE):

▪️ Core personal consumption expenditure price index (YoY) (Sep)

FACT: 2.8%
FORECAST: 2.9%
PRED.: 2.9%

▪️ Core personal consumption expenditure price index (MoM) (Sep)

FACT: 0.2%
FORECAST: 0.2%
PRED.: 0.2%

▪️ Personal consumption expenditure price index (YoY) (Sep)

FACT: 2.8% 
FORECAST: 2.8% 
PRED.: 2.7% 

▪️ Personal consumption expenditure price index (MoM) (Sep)

FACT: 0.3%
FORECAST: 0.3%
PRED.: 0.3%

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Top 100 24h Gainers 🚀

ZEC            $367.73      +3.00% 
LEO            $9.67          +0.79% 
TRX            $0.2847      +0.25% 
PAXG          $4222.34    +0.03% 
XAUt          $4212.00    -0.38% 

Top 100 24h Losers 🔻

CC              $0.0649      -12.05%
APT            $1.75          -11.56%
MORPHO      $1.29        -11.03%
VIRTUAL    $0.8419      -10.86%
ENA            $0.2605      -10.70%

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🚨 Volatility Alert

➡️The FOMC takes place in just 5 days from now on Wednesday.

⏰  Countdown 👀

Hold on tight ✊! The #market could become volatile.😱

💸 The Fed's balance sheet decreased by $16,638,000,000 in one week!

The Fed is currently in a "quiet period" (chairmen are not speaking yet) - the meeting will take place on December 10.

▪️ Reuters:
- 82% of economists expect a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed at the December 10 meeting.
- We expect two more rate cuts in 2026, with a final rate range of 3.0%-3.25%.
- There is a serious split within the Fed - at least 5 voting members are against further rate cuts.

▪️ Bank of America:
- We expect a 25 bps rate cut in December.
- The combination of the December rate cut and large-scale fiscal stimulus could make the Fed's DOT "too soft".

▪️ Morgan Stanley:
- The base scenario is a 25 bps rate cut in December.
- Followed by two more 25 bps cuts in January and April 2026.
- There may be "dissenting votes" within the Fed, but Jerome Powell will strive to maintain a tough tone.

▪️ JPMorgan:
- They have switched to the scenario of a 25 bps rate cut in December, abandoning their previous expectation of a January move.

▪️ Goldman Sachs:
- The weakness of the labor market "practically guaranteed" a 25 bps rate cut in December.

▪️ BlackRock:
- The Fed could cut rates again as early as next week.
- The labor market is losing momentum, justifying the December easing.
- The Fed's balance sheet is stabilizing - QT is over, but this is not QE.

📌 Market expectations (#FED rate):

- December 10: a 25 bps cut to 3.50-3.75%.
- January 28, 2026: PAUSE.
- March 18, 2026: PAUSE.
- April 29, 2026: a 25 bps cut to 3.25-3.50%.
- June 17, 2026: PAUSE.
- July 20, 2026: PAUSE.

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🔥 Fed Week: Cut or Shock?

Markets are buzzing! 🐝 The Fed’s Wednesday meeting is almost here, and traders are pricing in an 86% chance of a 25bps cut. Stocks, crypto, risk assets — all eyes on this one. But remember: it’s not just about the cut. It’s about what the Fed says and how they say it.

NY Fed’s John Williams hinted at more easing, and weak ADP jobs data is keeping the narrative dovish. But Powell’s tone matters — remember his “driving in the fog” line from October? 🚗💨 Markets were skeptical then. If he now signals easing despite incomplete data, investors may raise eyebrows.

Oh, and a little twist: Trump reportedly picked Powell’s successor, NEC Director Kevin Hassett. Long-term uncertainty, anyone? 😏

Market vibes before the Fed:

Cut + dovish tone → Stocks and gold rally 🌟, USD softens 💸, EUR/USD could push past 1.1700.

Hold rates → Shock alert 🚨: stocks drop, USD surges, EUR/USD may fall below 1.1500.

Gold & Oil Watch ⚔️

Gold: hovering ~$4,200. Dovish Fed + shaky peace talks → could test all-time highs ~$4,381 🏆.

Oil: struggling under a downward trend. Peace framework could push toward Oct lows ~$56–$55 ⛽️.

Other central banks this week:

RBA: Inflation and China in focus. No cut expected. AUD/USD might rise above 0.6680 if Fed dovish, or dip to 0.6550.

BoC: Likely holds, slightly dovish tone could nudge USD/CAD toward 1.3887.

SNB: Watching deflation. CHF stable, but volatility possible.

Bottom line?
The Fed is at a crossroads. Markets are on edge. Hawks or doves — who will take the wheel this week? 🦅🕊

💬 Your turn: Cut or hold? What’s your play?

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