🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

Friday, Dec 5 2025, 12:00 UTC time

📋 US / Markets & Fed watch
✅ Risk assets mixed ahead of key U.S. PCE inflation print: Futures and global stocks steady to mixed as markets price PCE for Fed guidance. Yields broadly stable (US 10y steady); dollar set for a weekly decline as Fed-cut hopes linger. EM assets rally on rate-cut/soft-landing optimism.

🔖 Inflation & monetary policy
✅ PCE in focus: Core/Headline PCE expected broadly steady — outcome to drive Fed path. BOJ hike odds firming for Dec 19. RBI unexpectedly cut rates; Indian rupee slid. Markets watching ECB/BoE guidance after mixed Eurozone/UK data.

📌 Precious metals & commodities
✅ Gold steady-to-rising: Gold holding gains as yields/dollar move; traders view metal as hedge if central banks pivot. Copper rallies on supply-squeeze fears; natural gas hits 3-year high — energy and base metals showing supply tightness.

📋 US corporate / macro snippets
✅ Stocks mixed: S&P flat on earnings/tech drags (Amazon), Nasdaq futures leading gains ahead of inflation. Initial jobless claims tumbled — softer labor signals add to Fed-rate debate.

🔖 China & FX
✅ PBOC fixing: Reuters estimate sees USD/CNY reference ~7.0751. USTR calls for smaller, balanced China trade & tighter USMCA enforcement — trade tensions remain an undercurrent.

📌 Europe: growth, yields & data
✅ Eurozone & Germany: Eurozone Q3 GDP revised up; German factory orders beat and rose further — signs of resilience but growth outlook for Germany tepid into 2026. Bund yields near 3-month highs. UK house prices stagnate; pound climbs to six-week high. BoE terminal rate debate continues.

📋 Japan & Asia-Pacific
✅ BOJ hawkish nerves: Japanese shares slip on rate-hike fears; Asia FX reacting to Fed/BOJ expectations. PBOC/FX moves and BoJ signals driving regional flows.

🔖 Russia, India, Brazil & EM moves
✅ FX & geopolitics: Russian ruble near 3-year high. India and Russia deepen strategic/ trade ties amid US pressure. Brazil’s trade surplus narrowed but equities (Ibovespa) hit record highs. South African rand at 34-month high.

📌 Fixed income & bonds
✅ Global bond market: U.S./Eurozone/UK yields stable-to-higher ahead of PCE; gilts and bunds react to inflation signals. Treasury yields edging lower in short window but watch PCE-driven volatility.

📋 Key takeaways for FX & macro traders
✅ Event risk central: US PCE (and subsequent Fed guidance) is the main mover — expect USD volatility, shifts in yields, and commodity reactions. Monitor BOJ, PBOC fixes, RBI stance and European data for cross-asset flows.

Stay nimble — PCE outcome will reset short-term rate and FX pricing.

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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

The US Treasury completed another $2 billion debt buyback

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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

🔥

US macroeconomic data (PCE):

▪️ Core personal consumption expenditure price index (YoY) (Sep)

FACT: 2.8%
FORECAST: 2.9%
PRED.: 2.9%

▪️ Core personal consumption expenditure price index (MoM) (Sep)

FACT: 0.2%
FORECAST: 0.2%
PRED.: 0.2%

▪️ Personal consumption expenditure price index (YoY) (Sep)

FACT: 2.8%
FORECAST: 2.8%
PRED.: 2.7%

▪️ Personal consumption expenditure price index (MoM) (Sep)

FACT: 0.3%
FORECAST: 0.3%
PRED.: 0.3%

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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

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28 viewsedited 16:28

🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

Markets got a strong assist from rising expectations for another rate cut from the Fed in a few weeks. Odds of a December cut are now up to 83%. With “truflation” steady at a 2.4% year-over-year rate, the Fed can afford to lean a little deeper into the 3-zone to help offset the risk of the jobs market stall.

The long end of the bond market seems to agree, with the 10-year holding steady at a 4.01% yield.

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30 views17:12

🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

Top 100 24h Gainers 🚀

ZEC            $367.73      +3.00%
LEO            $9.67          +0.79%
TRX            $0.2847      +0.25%
PAXG          $4222.34    +0.03%
XAUt          $4212.00    -0.38%

Top 100 24h Losers 🔻

CC              $0.0649      -12.05%
APT            $1.75          -11.56%
MORPHO     $1.29        -11.03%
VIRTUAL    $0.8419      -10.86%
ENA            $0.2605      -10.70%

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40 viewsedited 17:13

🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

🚨 Volatility Alert

➡️The FOMC takes place in just 5 days from now on Wednesday.

⏰ Countdown

👀

Hold on tight ✊! The #market could become volatile.😱

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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt

💸 The Fed's balance sheet decreased by $16,638,000,000 in one week!

The Fed is currently in a "quiet period" (chairmen are not speaking yet) - the meeting will take place on December 10.

▪️ Reuters:
- 82% of economists expect a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed at the December 10 meeting.
- We expect two more rate cuts in 2026, with a final rate range of 3.0%-3.25%.
- There is a serious split within the Fed - at least 5 voting members are against further rate cuts.

▪️ Bank of America:
- We expect a 25 bps rate cut in December.
- The combination of the December rate cut and large-scale fiscal stimulus could make the Fed's DOT "too soft".

▪️ Morgan Stanley:
- The base scenario is a 25 bps rate cut in December.
- Followed by two more 25 bps cuts in January and April 2026.
- There may be "dissenting votes" within the Fed, but Jerome Powell will strive to maintain a tough tone.

▪️ JPMorgan:
- They have switched to the scenario of a 25 bps rate cut in December, abandoning their previous expectation of a January move.

▪️ Goldman Sachs:
- The weakness of the labor market "practically guaranteed" a 25 bps rate cut in December.

▪️ BlackRock:
- The Fed could cut rates again as early as next week.
- The labor market is losing momentum, justifying the December easing.
- The Fed's balance sheet is stabilizing - QT is over, but this is not QE.

📌 Market expectations (#FED rate):

- December 10: a 25 bps cut to 3.50-3.75%.
- January 28, 2026: PAUSE.
- March 18, 2026: PAUSE.
- April 29, 2026: a 25 bps cut to 3.25-3.50%.
- June 17, 2026: PAUSE.
- July 20, 2026: PAUSE.

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