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When it's late at night and you start to realize that all you really have is yourself
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
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🇸🇦🛢️satellite imagery of Abqaiq initially showed damage limited to pressure vessels.
New imagery shows the damage spread across multiple areas of the refinery.
This is worse than the initial assessment.
Abqaiq is now likely to stay offline for longer than expected.
New imagery shows the damage spread across multiple areas of the refinery.
This is worse than the initial assessment.
Abqaiq is now likely to stay offline for longer than expected.
🔥1
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
One War That Keeps Widening
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia has launched multiple airstrikes on Sanaa.
Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi warned just before the strikes that the indications point to Saudi Arabia heading toward full escalation.
He said the Houthis will meet full escalation with full escalation.
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are now in open confrontation.
we already know the path...more Saudi energy infrastructure is likely next.
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia has launched multiple airstrikes on Sanaa.
Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi warned just before the strikes that the indications point to Saudi Arabia heading toward full escalation.
He said the Houthis will meet full escalation with full escalation.
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are now in open confrontation.
we already know the path...more Saudi energy infrastructure is likely next.
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They never wanted you to know the real reason why most people stay broke.
It's not because making money is hard...
It's because the system you grew up in was built to keep you thinking small.
Rockefeller, one of the richest men in history, even admitted it:
"I don't want a nation of thinkers, i want a nation of workers."
School was never designed to make you rich.
It was designed to make you obedient.
and that’s why for most people, a million dollars feels "impossible."
It's not because making money is hard...
It's because the system you grew up in was built to keep you thinking small.
Rockefeller, one of the richest men in history, even admitted it:
"I don't want a nation of thinkers, i want a nation of workers."
School was never designed to make you rich.
It was designed to make you obedient.
and that’s why for most people, a million dollars feels "impossible."
🗿1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
They never wanted you to know the real reason why most people stay broke. It's not because making money is hard... It's because the system you grew up in was built to keep you thinking small. Rockefeller, one of the richest men in history, even admitted…
As a man, power comes from financial stability, disciplined silence, strong connections, and the ability to stand alone. money gives you options. silence gives you control. connections open doors. solitude teaches you who you are without applause. build all four, and you become difficult to manipulate.
✍1
When will the bull market begin? Japan will decide tomorrow.
For months, everyone has been asking the same question:
When will the bull market begin?
They always look for the answer in the US: in the Fed, in inflation data, in the interest rate calendar.
All of that is true, but none of it points to the real obstacle.
Because the obstacle standing in the way of the rise is not in the US. It's in Japan, and the decision will be made tomorrow.
Let's start with what happened today.
The yen gained 2.5% against the dollar today, reaching its strongest level in 76 days.
At that time, no data was released, nor was any news published.
There are two explanations for such a large movement in the absence of news.
Either Japan entered the market and bought yen, or the market has already started pricing in tomorrow's interest rate hike.
Both lead to the same conclusion: the decision to be announced in Japan tomorrow.
The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow. So this move came a day before the decision.
If there's such a stir in the market the day before a central bank's decision, it's not an ordinary meeting.
So why is Japan's interest rate decision a global issue?
Japan has kept its interest rates near zero for years. No other country in the world has done this for so long.
Large funds found a way around this.
Borrow yen cheaply from Japan, convert it, invest it in a high-yielding asset, and pocket the difference. This is called carry trade in the market.
This money went into US bonds, stock markets, emerging market economies, and digital assets.
Trillions of dollars have passed through this route over the years.
Many of the prices you see on your screen today contain money borrowed from Japan.
Now we come to the point that many people misunderstand.
The yen's depreciation over the years wasn't a problem for this system. On the contrary, it was fuel.
Because as the yen became cheaper, the same debt was easier to repay, and the difference grew. The falling yen made this business more profitable every year.
This was the invisible artery that fueled its rise in recent years.
For months, everyone has been asking the same question:
When will the bull market begin?
They always look for the answer in the US: in the Fed, in inflation data, in the interest rate calendar.
All of that is true, but none of it points to the real obstacle.
Because the obstacle standing in the way of the rise is not in the US. It's in Japan, and the decision will be made tomorrow.
Let's start with what happened today.
The yen gained 2.5% against the dollar today, reaching its strongest level in 76 days.
At that time, no data was released, nor was any news published.
There are two explanations for such a large movement in the absence of news.
Either Japan entered the market and bought yen, or the market has already started pricing in tomorrow's interest rate hike.
Both lead to the same conclusion: the decision to be announced in Japan tomorrow.
The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow. So this move came a day before the decision.
If there's such a stir in the market the day before a central bank's decision, it's not an ordinary meeting.
So why is Japan's interest rate decision a global issue?
Japan has kept its interest rates near zero for years. No other country in the world has done this for so long.
Large funds found a way around this.
Borrow yen cheaply from Japan, convert it, invest it in a high-yielding asset, and pocket the difference. This is called carry trade in the market.
This money went into US bonds, stock markets, emerging market economies, and digital assets.
Trillions of dollars have passed through this route over the years.
Many of the prices you see on your screen today contain money borrowed from Japan.
Now we come to the point that many people misunderstand.
The yen's depreciation over the years wasn't a problem for this system. On the contrary, it was fuel.
Because as the yen became cheaper, the same debt was easier to repay, and the difference grew. The falling yen made this business more profitable every year.
This was the invisible artery that fueled its rise in recent years.
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
This was the invisible vein that fueled the recent rise.
So why did Japan keep its interest rate at zero for so long?
Because Japan's problem wasn't rising prices. It was falling prices.
Most people are surprised to hear this. They ask, "If prices are falling, isn't that good?"
No.
Think of it this way:
The store in your neighborhood lowers its prices a little more each week. The shoes you buy today will be cheaper next week. What do you do?
You wait.
If one person waits, it's not a problem.
If millions of people wait at the same time, demand stops. When demand stops, unsold goods accumulate. As goods accumulate, prices fall even further. As prices fall, waiting becomes more logical.
Producers don't make a profit because they can't sell. When they don't make a profit, they reduce production and lay off workers. When people's incomes fall, demand decreases even more.
The economy comes to a standstill.
To break out of this cycle, Japan lowered its interest rate to zero. It eliminated the return on waiting, making borrowing cheaper.
The Japanese people still didn't spend. But the rest of the world used that money to the last drop.
Finally, inflation came. But it didn't come from where expected.
This increase didn't occur because the Japanese people spent too much. It came from outside.
Interest rates are high in the US, near zero in Japan. Money always flows to where it earns more. Investors abandoned the yen and rushed to the dollar.
However, Japan imports almost all of its energy and pays the bill in dollars.
When the two combine, a cycle is established.
The yen falls, the energy bill rises. When the bill rises, prices in the country increase. When prices rise, the pressure to raise interest rates grows. If interest rates are not raised, the yen falls again, and everything starts from where it was before.
In other words, the fuel starts burning its own engine at a certain point.
Japan intervened in the market several times to stop this. It intervened in 2022, it intervened in 2024. Each time, the yen recovered for a few days, then returned to the same level.
The reason is simple. The intervention corrects the result, but leaves the cause in place. No intervention is permanent unless the interest rate differential closes.
The only way to close the gap is to raise interest rates.
What happens the day Japan raises interest rates?
1. The cost of borrowing from Japan increases. The era of cheap money ends.
2. The yield gap disappears. Holding the position becomes pointless.
3. The yen rises sharply. Since the debt is in yen, closing the same debt is now more expensive.
4. As losses grow, a margin call occurs. The fund sells not because it wants to, but because it is forced to.
5. They all sell at the same time. Because they all borrowed from the same source and they all read the same news on the same day.
This scenario is not a theory. It happened.
August 5, 2024. Japan raised interest rates, the yen rose sharply, and the Japanese stock market fell by over 12% on the same day. The sell-off, which started in Tokyo, spread throughout the world within hours.
The reason wasn't Japan's economy. It was the simultaneous closing of positions opened with yen debt.
There's one word here that carries the entire text.
Not the one who wants to sell, but the one who is forced to sell.
The latter is always the one that actually pulls the price down in the market.
Now look at the picture as a whole.
The yen remaining cheap has driven markets up for years. A sudden rise in the yen is pulling those same markets down.
So, what creates the rise is the same thing that ends it.
Now let's come to tomorrow.
If Japan raises interest rates, this chain will start working from tomorrow.
Selling will occur, the pain will be felt early. But when the forced sellers finish their business, the burden on the market will be lifted.
If they don't raise, the yen will start falling again, energy bills will increase, and pressure will grow. We will be relieved in the short term, but the same burden will continue to weigh on us for months.
Note something else.
Tomorrow, the message given after the decision will be more important than the decision itself.
There's another point.
Japan is the country holding the most US Treasury bonds in the world. Approximately $1.2 trillion.
If Japan raises interest rates, its own bonds will become attractive. Japanese money will return home. Demand for US bonds decreases, and US interest rates rise.
That's why tomorrow's decision doesn't only concern the yen.
What will be watched tomorrow?
1. Was there an interest rate hike, and if not, what was the tone of the message?
2. After the decision, will the yen maintain its current gains, or will it give them back within a few days?
3. Will the daily movements in the yen remain volatile, or will they calm down?
The third is the most important.
Because the bull market won't start because the yen has strengthened. It will start the day the volatile movement in the yen ends.
On that day, those who have to sell will be out of the picture.
The thing that has created this rise for years is the cheap yen.
Tomorrow, a decision will be made on whether to buy it back or not.
So why did Japan keep its interest rate at zero for so long?
Because Japan's problem wasn't rising prices. It was falling prices.
Most people are surprised to hear this. They ask, "If prices are falling, isn't that good?"
No.
Think of it this way:
The store in your neighborhood lowers its prices a little more each week. The shoes you buy today will be cheaper next week. What do you do?
You wait.
If one person waits, it's not a problem.
If millions of people wait at the same time, demand stops. When demand stops, unsold goods accumulate. As goods accumulate, prices fall even further. As prices fall, waiting becomes more logical.
Producers don't make a profit because they can't sell. When they don't make a profit, they reduce production and lay off workers. When people's incomes fall, demand decreases even more.
The economy comes to a standstill.
To break out of this cycle, Japan lowered its interest rate to zero. It eliminated the return on waiting, making borrowing cheaper.
The Japanese people still didn't spend. But the rest of the world used that money to the last drop.
Finally, inflation came. But it didn't come from where expected.
This increase didn't occur because the Japanese people spent too much. It came from outside.
Interest rates are high in the US, near zero in Japan. Money always flows to where it earns more. Investors abandoned the yen and rushed to the dollar.
However, Japan imports almost all of its energy and pays the bill in dollars.
When the two combine, a cycle is established.
The yen falls, the energy bill rises. When the bill rises, prices in the country increase. When prices rise, the pressure to raise interest rates grows. If interest rates are not raised, the yen falls again, and everything starts from where it was before.
In other words, the fuel starts burning its own engine at a certain point.
Japan intervened in the market several times to stop this. It intervened in 2022, it intervened in 2024. Each time, the yen recovered for a few days, then returned to the same level.
The reason is simple. The intervention corrects the result, but leaves the cause in place. No intervention is permanent unless the interest rate differential closes.
The only way to close the gap is to raise interest rates.
What happens the day Japan raises interest rates?
1. The cost of borrowing from Japan increases. The era of cheap money ends.
2. The yield gap disappears. Holding the position becomes pointless.
3. The yen rises sharply. Since the debt is in yen, closing the same debt is now more expensive.
4. As losses grow, a margin call occurs. The fund sells not because it wants to, but because it is forced to.
5. They all sell at the same time. Because they all borrowed from the same source and they all read the same news on the same day.
This scenario is not a theory. It happened.
August 5, 2024. Japan raised interest rates, the yen rose sharply, and the Japanese stock market fell by over 12% on the same day. The sell-off, which started in Tokyo, spread throughout the world within hours.
The reason wasn't Japan's economy. It was the simultaneous closing of positions opened with yen debt.
There's one word here that carries the entire text.
Not the one who wants to sell, but the one who is forced to sell.
The latter is always the one that actually pulls the price down in the market.
Now look at the picture as a whole.
The yen remaining cheap has driven markets up for years. A sudden rise in the yen is pulling those same markets down.
So, what creates the rise is the same thing that ends it.
Now let's come to tomorrow.
If Japan raises interest rates, this chain will start working from tomorrow.
Selling will occur, the pain will be felt early. But when the forced sellers finish their business, the burden on the market will be lifted.
If they don't raise, the yen will start falling again, energy bills will increase, and pressure will grow. We will be relieved in the short term, but the same burden will continue to weigh on us for months.
Note something else.
Tomorrow, the message given after the decision will be more important than the decision itself.
There's another point.
Japan is the country holding the most US Treasury bonds in the world. Approximately $1.2 trillion.
If Japan raises interest rates, its own bonds will become attractive. Japanese money will return home. Demand for US bonds decreases, and US interest rates rise.
That's why tomorrow's decision doesn't only concern the yen.
What will be watched tomorrow?
1. Was there an interest rate hike, and if not, what was the tone of the message?
2. After the decision, will the yen maintain its current gains, or will it give them back within a few days?
3. Will the daily movements in the yen remain volatile, or will they calm down?
The third is the most important.
Because the bull market won't start because the yen has strengthened. It will start the day the volatile movement in the yen ends.
On that day, those who have to sell will be out of the picture.
The thing that has created this rise for years is the cheap yen.
Tomorrow, a decision will be made on whether to buy it back or not.
✍1🔥1
We're entering the token-efficiency era of AI.
GPT-5.6 Luna hits an intelligence score of ~51 at roughly $0.06 per task.
Claude Opus 5 on Low effort scores about the same at over $0.30 per task.
Same intelligence. ~5x the cost difference.
Pure intelligence is no longer the strongest moat. Cost-efficiency needs to be baked in as every model is "capable enough" now.
GPT-5.6 Luna hits an intelligence score of ~51 at roughly $0.06 per task.
Claude Opus 5 on Low effort scores about the same at over $0.30 per task.
Same intelligence. ~5x the cost difference.
Pure intelligence is no longer the strongest moat. Cost-efficiency needs to be baked in as every model is "capable enough" now.
🇺🇸Ameren is building a 2,100 megawatt gas plant to solve the Midwest's power crunch.
Its own testimony to Missouri regulators says that will not be enough.
Even after the plant comes online in late 2031, Ameren projects a capacity shortfall of about 1,500 megawatts in winter 2032. That shortfall grows to 2,300 megawatts by 2033.
The driver is data centers.
Ameren already signed contracts to power new Amazon and Google facilities in rural Missouri.
Building the largest gas plant in company history still leaves the utility short.
That is what the AI power demand curve actually looks like.
Its own testimony to Missouri regulators says that will not be enough.
Even after the plant comes online in late 2031, Ameren projects a capacity shortfall of about 1,500 megawatts in winter 2032. That shortfall grows to 2,300 megawatts by 2033.
The driver is data centers.
Ameren already signed contracts to power new Amazon and Google facilities in rural Missouri.
Building the largest gas plant in company history still leaves the utility short.
That is what the AI power demand curve actually looks like.
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No connection
No dad’s money..
No rich background.
Just courage, God and an unbreakable mindset.
No dad’s money..
No rich background.
Just courage, God and an unbreakable mindset.
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
No connection No dad’s money.. No rich background. Just courage, God and an unbreakable mindset.
Who needs a trust fund when you’ve got a superhero combo like that?
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
*LEOPOLD IS BROKE, FORCED TO SELL HIS MOTHER’S HOUSE TO COVER MARGIN 🩸🩸🩸 The stock market:
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Looks like he finally became fully aware of the situation
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Thanks for nothing clowns 😂
Citadel, the same fund that predicted a Fed rate hike at the July FOMC, purchased every one of Situational Awareness' disclosed holdings in a single transaction.
How about them apples?
How about them apples?
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
BREAKING 🚨: Leopold Aschenbrenner Leopold capitulates! Forced to sell all of his public stock holdings. Citadel's Ken Griffin scooped them up at the bottom, of course 😂 😂
🚨BREAKING: Leopold Aschenbrenner just got forced to sell his entire Portfolio.
Today the exact stocks exploded:
$NBIS +25%
$BE +26%
$CRWV +20%
$SNDK +20%
$MU +17%
He sold the dip. Don't do that.
Today the exact stocks exploded:
$NBIS +25%
$BE +26%
$CRWV +20%
$SNDK +20%
$MU +17%
He sold the dip. Don't do that.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
LEOPOLD’S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND BLOWUP TIMELINE
JULY 1: LEOPOLD’S HEDGE FUND SITUATIONAL AWARENESS REACHES $45 BILLION UP 450% YTD
JULY 10: SK HYNIX US IPO MARKS TOP OF THE AI SECTOR
JULY 10-20: MAJOR SELLOFF ACROSS ALL AI STOCKS, MOST DOWN 30%+ IN 2 WEEKS
JULY 10-20: HIS SHORT POSITIONS START GOING UP CAUSING MORE LOSSES (HE WAS SHORT ADOBE AND OTHER SOFTWARE STOCKS)
JULY 24: HE SENDS INVESTORS A LETTER CALLING THE SELLOFF A BUYING OPPORTUNITY AND ASKS FOR MORE MONEY
JULY 27: CITADEL SECURITIES SAYS THE FED IS GONNA DO A SURPRISE RATE HIKE
JULY 28: THE MARKET SELLS OFF AFTER CITADEL’S REPORT & LEOPOLD TRIES TO RAISE & BORROW MORE MONEY
JULY 29: BANKS MARGIN CALL HIM
JULY 30: CITADEL COMES IN AND BUYS HIS ENTIRE PORTFOLIO FOR A MASSIVE DISCOUNT
LEVERAGE IS THE MAIN REASON PEOPLE GO BROKE IN THE STOCK MARKET ALWAYS BE CAREFUL
JULY 1: LEOPOLD’S HEDGE FUND SITUATIONAL AWARENESS REACHES $45 BILLION UP 450% YTD
JULY 10: SK HYNIX US IPO MARKS TOP OF THE AI SECTOR
JULY 10-20: MAJOR SELLOFF ACROSS ALL AI STOCKS, MOST DOWN 30%+ IN 2 WEEKS
JULY 10-20: HIS SHORT POSITIONS START GOING UP CAUSING MORE LOSSES (HE WAS SHORT ADOBE AND OTHER SOFTWARE STOCKS)
JULY 24: HE SENDS INVESTORS A LETTER CALLING THE SELLOFF A BUYING OPPORTUNITY AND ASKS FOR MORE MONEY
JULY 27: CITADEL SECURITIES SAYS THE FED IS GONNA DO A SURPRISE RATE HIKE
JULY 28: THE MARKET SELLS OFF AFTER CITADEL’S REPORT & LEOPOLD TRIES TO RAISE & BORROW MORE MONEY
JULY 29: BANKS MARGIN CALL HIM
JULY 30: CITADEL COMES IN AND BUYS HIS ENTIRE PORTFOLIO FOR A MASSIVE DISCOUNT
LEVERAGE IS THE MAIN REASON PEOPLE GO BROKE IN THE STOCK MARKET ALWAYS BE CAREFUL
✍1
Macron’s currency shock: France ready to trade in Chinese yuan instead of US dollar
The global financial chessboard has just been turned upside down. In a shocking geopolitical move, France has announced that it is fully prepared to use Chinese yuan instead of US dollars in its trade relations with Beijing.
France is presenting this as a step towards European “strategic autonomy”, but let’s call it what it is: a massive crack in the dominance of the almighty US dollar. Beijing has ben trying to de-dollarize global trade for a decade, and the emergence of a major NATO and EU superpower to use the yuan is a historic victory for Xi Jinping.
It seems that Washington’s aggressive economic pressure and unpredictability have achieved the impossible – driving one of its oldest allies right into China’s financial system. The petrodollar is no longer untouchable, and the monetary lines are officially being redrawn.
The global financial chessboard has just been turned upside down. In a shocking geopolitical move, France has announced that it is fully prepared to use Chinese yuan instead of US dollars in its trade relations with Beijing.
France is presenting this as a step towards European “strategic autonomy”, but let’s call it what it is: a massive crack in the dominance of the almighty US dollar. Beijing has ben trying to de-dollarize global trade for a decade, and the emergence of a major NATO and EU superpower to use the yuan is a historic victory for Xi Jinping.
It seems that Washington’s aggressive economic pressure and unpredictability have achieved the impossible – driving one of its oldest allies right into China’s financial system. The petrodollar is no longer untouchable, and the monetary lines are officially being redrawn.