❗️ ACCOMPANYING NOTE #FederalReserve
❗️Immediately, 3 members voted in favor of raising the interest rate by 25 basis points – Hammock, Kashkari, and Logan. The decision on the Federal Reserve interest rate was made with 9 votes (in favor of a pause) against 3.
▫️ Economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace, despite increased uncertainty, partly related to the conflict in the Middle East.
▫️ Productivity growth and capital investment remain strong.
▫️ Job growth is consistent with the growth of the labor force, and unemployment has remained virtually unchanged.
▫️ Inflation remains above the 2% target, in part due to supply shocks and rising prices in certain sectors, including energy. The Federal Reserve stated that it will ensure price stability.
❗️The Federal Reserve's balance sheet policy remains unchanged (#QE):
▫️ The Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury bills and other government securities with maturities of up to 3 years, as needed, to maintain an adequate level of reserves.
▫️ Maturities of Treasury securities will be fully reinvested, and payments on agency securities will be directed to Treasury bills.
Next: Live text transcript of the conference with K. Warsh.
❗️Immediately, 3 members voted in favor of raising the interest rate by 25 basis points – Hammock, Kashkari, and Logan. The decision on the Federal Reserve interest rate was made with 9 votes (in favor of a pause) against 3.
▫️ Economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace, despite increased uncertainty, partly related to the conflict in the Middle East.
▫️ Productivity growth and capital investment remain strong.
▫️ Job growth is consistent with the growth of the labor force, and unemployment has remained virtually unchanged.
▫️ Inflation remains above the 2% target, in part due to supply shocks and rising prices in certain sectors, including energy. The Federal Reserve stated that it will ensure price stability.
❗️The Federal Reserve's balance sheet policy remains unchanged (#QE):
▫️ The Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury bills and other government securities with maturities of up to 3 years, as needed, to maintain an adequate level of reserves.
▫️ Maturities of Treasury securities will be fully reinvested, and payments on agency securities will be directed to Treasury bills.
Next: Live text transcript of the conference with K. Warsh.
✔ The economy is demonstrating impressive resilience.
✔ The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to ensuring price stability.
✔ The Federal Reserve consciously avoids making economic forecasts.
✔ The inflation target is not a flexible benchmark.
✔ Five years of high inflation have created a lasting impression that the Fed's actual target was higher than 2%.
✔ The Federal Reserve will not deviate from its course. Inflation cannot be defeated in nine weeks.
✔ We did not act out of inertia in our discussions or in choosing a strategy.
✔ Some of the yield movements between Fed meetings have been among the most significant in recent decades.
✔ The market is reacting to incoming macroeconomic data in real time. One factor may have been the Fed's reduction of forward guidance. In my view, this is a positive development.
✔ The surge in capital investment in high technology has been impressive.
✔ The market will continue to react as it sees fit – both in terms of direction and magnitude.
✔ Investment activity remains high. Capital investment is laying the foundation for future economic growth.
✔ Investment in AI is laying the foundation for future growth. The boom in capital investment is increasing the cost of infrastructure for AI.
✔ We discussed the high inflation of the past five years extensively.
✔ We considered recent economic shocks. We discussed price increases, monetary policy tools, and strategy.
✔ The market is now reacting much more directly to events, and we are trying not to interfere and to get the clearest signal possible from it.
✔ We are observing rising yields and are trying not to interfere in this process.
✔ Interpreting market signals is far from an exact science.
✔ According to the bond market, the economy remains strong and stable.
✔ Even if we have done very little, the market has already done a significant amount of work.
✔ Regarding disagreements on interest rates within the Federal Reserve: I wanted a good family discussion – and I got one. The majority agreed that we have all the necessary tools to ensure price stability. The discussion was active and substantive.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
(Part 2)
✔ When using a macro data-driven approach, there are two problems: the data itself and the excessive reliance on it. The overall trend is what's important.
✔ The June data on core inflation had almost no impact on today's decision.
✔ We have received several encouraging signals regarding inflation and will continue to closely monitor the data.
✔ I don't want to create the impression that we are anxiously awaiting each new economic indicator.
✔ In a couple of weeks, we will discuss the situation with the working group on inflation.
✔ U.S. Treasury yields are currently higher than at the previous Federal Reserve meeting.
✔ We will need to make some important decisions in the near future. During that time, the market will also have a lot to assess.
❗️Market prices are one of many channels through which monetary policy affects the economy. We will continue to monitor market signals.
✔ The discussion showed a high level of agreement within the Federal Reserve on complex issues.
✔ In my opinion, now is the time to carefully observe and analyze the situation.
✔ There has been a mistaken impression that the Federal Reserve is willing to tolerate inflation slightly above the target level.
❗️If inflation remains high, a rate hike may be part of our decision.
✔ A significant portion of our discussion was devoted to the underlying factors of inflation in the context of economic shocks.
✔ At this stage, economic shocks are making our task somewhat more difficult.
✔ If you were to call today's decision a pause, the financial markets would not agree. Today's Federal Reserve decision is just the beginning, not the end of the story.
✔ We have not yet begun to discuss the content of my speech in Jackson Hole. In Jackson Hole, I would like to outline the key issues.
✔ I do not believe that the two goals of the Federal Reserve (labor market/inflation) are in conflict with each other.
✔ The situation with full employment in the country is quite good, while the situation with price stability is significantly worse.
✔ We have a reasonable understanding of demand, and we are basing our supply decisions on that.
✔ I will give dissenting members of the Federal Reserve the opportunity to express their views themselves.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
(Part 3)
✔ I was encouraged that the market reacted not to the Fed's statements or the specific interest rate forecast, but to real-time events.
✔ We neither support nor condemn specific market movements, but we are closely monitoring them.
❗️ When inflation accelerates, central banks are likely to tighten monetary policy.
✔ When employment remains stable, but core inflation accelerates, any central bank leader is more likely to lean towards tightening policy.
✔ Who knows what we will say about our strategy in January. Our primary inflation indicator is the PCE index, and we will continue to focus on it.
✔ To bring inflation back to 2%, I analyze a broader set of indicators, not just the PCE.
✔ This is not an exact science, but we have a separate project that helps to separate market noise from meaningful signals.
❗️ Today's decision was the complete opposite of a knee-jerk reaction. Our approach may change significantly in the coming months.
❗️ Judging by the yield curve of government bonds and the dollar exchange rate, the market generally believes that the Fed is in control and is capable of achieving results.
✔ I selected 15 leading experts to work on five key questions, but we make the final decisions.
✔ I see that households and businesses are running out of patience. We are fully focused on achieving price stability.
❗️ Looking at market prices overall, they do not signal that all risks are behind us – financial conditions have tightened.
✔ The market can be a valuable source of information, but it is not the ultimate source of truth. We simply want to receive information in the most direct and unbiased way possible.
❗️ By the end of the year, I intend to hold press conferences after Fed meetings.
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Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🇺🇸🇸🇦🇮🇶 US and Saudi forces struck Iran-aligned PMF sites across Iraq overnight, in the first publicly acknowledged joint operation of this scale.
The PMF says 20 fighters were killed and 32 wounded. Reports that 4 to 5 IRGC advisers were also killed remain unconfirmed.
The reported target map:
🔵 Nineveh, Bartalla and Al-Hamdaniya: 30th Brigade headquarters and an anti-tank unit. Reportedly among the deadliest strikes.
🔵 Diyala, Camp Ashraf: a strategic PMF base close to the Iranian border, where IRGC advisers were reportedly present.
🔵 Basra, Al-Deir: militia positions in southern Iraq, close to key Gulf energy and logistics routes.
🔵 Baghdad, Al-Madain: faction bases south of the capital.
🔵 Wasit, Al-Suwaira: a PMF headquarters.
🔵 Karbala, Awn district: militia facilities in central Iraq.
🔵 Kirkuk, Al-Dibs: PMF positions in the north.
🔵 Salah al-Din, Amerli: a PMF headquarters and nearby buildings, with no deaths reported at this specific location.
What matters is the geography.
This was not an isolated strike against one launcher or weapons depot. The operation stretched from Basra to Nineveh, suggesting an attempt to weaken the militia network across Iraq rather than punish a single unit.
And if the reports about Iranian advisers are confirmed, the pressure to retaliate will rise sharply. US bases, Saudi energy infrastructure and regional shipping could all return to the firing line.
Iraq is no longer sitting on the edge of this war.
It is becoming one of its central battlefields.
The PMF says 20 fighters were killed and 32 wounded. Reports that 4 to 5 IRGC advisers were also killed remain unconfirmed.
The reported target map:
🔵 Nineveh, Bartalla and Al-Hamdaniya: 30th Brigade headquarters and an anti-tank unit. Reportedly among the deadliest strikes.
🔵 Diyala, Camp Ashraf: a strategic PMF base close to the Iranian border, where IRGC advisers were reportedly present.
🔵 Basra, Al-Deir: militia positions in southern Iraq, close to key Gulf energy and logistics routes.
🔵 Baghdad, Al-Madain: faction bases south of the capital.
🔵 Wasit, Al-Suwaira: a PMF headquarters.
🔵 Karbala, Awn district: militia facilities in central Iraq.
🔵 Kirkuk, Al-Dibs: PMF positions in the north.
🔵 Salah al-Din, Amerli: a PMF headquarters and nearby buildings, with no deaths reported at this specific location.
What matters is the geography.
This was not an isolated strike against one launcher or weapons depot. The operation stretched from Basra to Nineveh, suggesting an attempt to weaken the militia network across Iraq rather than punish a single unit.
And if the reports about Iranian advisers are confirmed, the pressure to retaliate will rise sharply. US bases, Saudi energy infrastructure and regional shipping could all return to the firing line.
Iraq is no longer sitting on the edge of this war.
It is becoming one of its central battlefields.
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The Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Today's decision was predicted in an article from 2025.
Elon Musk recently stated that money will lose its importance by 2036.
His reasoning was as follows:
Artificial intelligence and robots will produce so much that production will exceed the money supply. In other words, deflation, not inflation, will occur.
Most people didn't take this seriously.
However, someone else wrote the same thing in November 2025.
He wrote that artificial intelligence would have a powerful effect in driving prices down, and that a productivity boom would provide growth without generating inflation.
That person's name is Kevin Warsh. He is currently the Fed Chairman.
The Fed did not change interest rates today.
Three people opposed the decision. They wanted the interest rate to be increased.
They also had a strong argument: inflation has been above target for 5 years.
The decision was still 9 to 3.
So why did the majority side against the decision when the argument was so strong?
The answer is in that article.
Warsh wrote that article before he became Fed Chairman.
He also argued that this development would open up room for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Today, the same man said the same thing from the chairman's seat. He stated that the most striking feature of the economy is investment in artificial intelligence.
The numbers support this.
Equipment investment increased by 8% in the first quarter of the year. High-tech spending has approached 25% in the last four quarters.
Now let's get to the connection with interest rates.
Prices depend on two things:
How much money is available and how much merchandise is available.
Interest rates only affect the first.
You raise them, borrowing becomes more expensive, spending decreases, and demand falls.
Warsh is looking at the other side.
The merchandise side.
According to him, artificial intelligence will make production so cheap in the coming years that prices will fall even if the Fed does nothing.
This leads to the following conclusion...
Elon Musk recently stated that money will lose its importance by 2036.
His reasoning was as follows:
Artificial intelligence and robots will produce so much that production will exceed the money supply. In other words, deflation, not inflation, will occur.
Most people didn't take this seriously.
However, someone else wrote the same thing in November 2025.
He wrote that artificial intelligence would have a powerful effect in driving prices down, and that a productivity boom would provide growth without generating inflation.
That person's name is Kevin Warsh. He is currently the Fed Chairman.
The Fed did not change interest rates today.
Three people opposed the decision. They wanted the interest rate to be increased.
They also had a strong argument: inflation has been above target for 5 years.
The decision was still 9 to 3.
So why did the majority side against the decision when the argument was so strong?
The answer is in that article.
Warsh wrote that article before he became Fed Chairman.
He also argued that this development would open up room for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Today, the same man said the same thing from the chairman's seat. He stated that the most striking feature of the economy is investment in artificial intelligence.
The numbers support this.
Equipment investment increased by 8% in the first quarter of the year. High-tech spending has approached 25% in the last four quarters.
Now let's get to the connection with interest rates.
Prices depend on two things:
How much money is available and how much merchandise is available.
Interest rates only affect the first.
You raise them, borrowing becomes more expensive, spending decreases, and demand falls.
Warsh is looking at the other side.
The merchandise side.
According to him, artificial intelligence will make production so cheap in the coming years that prices will fall even if the Fed does nothing.
This leads to the following conclusion...
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
Raising interest rates today will reduce spending. But with the same move, you'll also reduce investment, which would drive down prices tomorrow.
So, the move those who want to raise interest rates might only delay the result they expect.
Warsh himself bases this argument on history.
Between 1996 and 1998, then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan resisted pressure to raise interest rates. His reasoning was the same:
Productivity growth was suppressing inflation.
Greenspan was right then. Inflation remained low, and the economy grew.
But the end of that same period was the dot-com bubble.
We need to be honest here.
Warsh's argument is in the minority among economists.
Approximately 60% of leading economists say that the impact of artificial intelligence on inflation will be close to zero in the next two years.
In the short term, the picture could even be the opposite.
Building data centers, installing electricity, buying chips – these are all costs today.
Warsh also acknowledges this uncertainty. He said that nobody knows when and how much the effect will come.
So there's no certainty. It's a gamble.
That's the main point.
A central bank normally solves inflation with the tools at its disposal.
It uses interest rates.
Today, the Fed didn't do that. Because its chairman thinks that interest rates are not the solution to ending inflation.
If he's right, prices will fall on their own, and interest rates will easily go down.
If he's wrong, inflation, which has been above the target for 5 years, will have been above the target for another 2 years.
Most people didn't take Elon Musk's words seriously.
The same calculation has become the US interest rate policy today.
So, the move those who want to raise interest rates might only delay the result they expect.
Warsh himself bases this argument on history.
Between 1996 and 1998, then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan resisted pressure to raise interest rates. His reasoning was the same:
Productivity growth was suppressing inflation.
Greenspan was right then. Inflation remained low, and the economy grew.
But the end of that same period was the dot-com bubble.
We need to be honest here.
Warsh's argument is in the minority among economists.
Approximately 60% of leading economists say that the impact of artificial intelligence on inflation will be close to zero in the next two years.
In the short term, the picture could even be the opposite.
Building data centers, installing electricity, buying chips – these are all costs today.
Warsh also acknowledges this uncertainty. He said that nobody knows when and how much the effect will come.
So there's no certainty. It's a gamble.
That's the main point.
A central bank normally solves inflation with the tools at its disposal.
It uses interest rates.
Today, the Fed didn't do that. Because its chairman thinks that interest rates are not the solution to ending inflation.
If he's right, prices will fall on their own, and interest rates will easily go down.
If he's wrong, inflation, which has been above the target for 5 years, will have been above the target for another 2 years.
Most people didn't take Elon Musk's words seriously.
The same calculation has become the US interest rate policy today.
✍1
Anthropic's closed-source Claude Mythos Preview model has discoveredd new ways to attack cryptographic algorithms.
The main result is an attack on HAWK, a candidate for a post-quantum digital signature standard. The algorithm reached the third round of the NIST competition and has been undergoing scrutiny by cryptographers for about two years.
In just 60 hours, the AI discovered a hidden mathematical symmetry that significantly weakened HAWK's security. For the test version of HAWK-256, the difficulty of recovering the secret key was reduced from approximately 2⁶² to 2³⁸ – the key was obtained in a few hours on a single server.
More secure versions of HAWK-512 and HAWK-1024 remain virtually inaccessible to cracking, but their estimated reliability has also been reduced.
The second result is that the AI model accelerated an attack on a truncated version of AES-128 with seven rounds of protection instead of the standard ten, by approximately 200-800 times.
Important: HAWK is not currently used anywhere, and the full AES-128 has not been cracked.
The cryptography industry is not currently threatened. Each attack investigation cost Anthropic approximately $100,000. But the fact itself is significant: AI is already capable of almost independently finding new vulnerabilities in cryptography, which could take humans months or years to discover.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The "Drone Wall" — The Future Shield Against Mass Drone Attacks As drones become cheaper, smarter, and deadlier, nations are racing to build a Drone Wall—a multi-layered defensive network designed to stop hostile UAVs before they can penetrate national airspace…
❗️According to The Financial Times, US and French intelligence services are providing Ukraine with data on the locations of Russian air defenses and routes to bypass them, while also helping select targets at oil refineries and Wildberries warehouses to maximize long-term damage from the strikes. Drone operators are briefed on the critical components of the facilities, planners account for infrastructure interdependencies, and Ukraine is conducting repeated strikes on key equipment to hinder restoration.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The Kremlin’s global influence is fracturing. 📄📉 According to a new report from Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU), Russia has just received formal diplomatic protests from India, Azerbaijan, and Botswana—three nations where Moscow has historically…
Let's all pray for the charred remnants of last vestiges of the carcass of Putin's failed USSR 2.0.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ enters technical correction after dropping more than 10% from June's all-time high
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ has now closed red for 6 straight days, its longest losing streak since August 2025 📉 📉
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
BREAKING: The South Korean KOSPI index collapses an astounding -11% as more margin calls begin going out. Over 3% of the South Korean population has had their entire trading account wiped out in the last month due to margin calls. That number is likely much…
JUST IN 🚨: Some special guests will be ringing the opening bell on the Kospi tonight
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❗️🇺🇦Ukraine has struck the Wildberries logistics hub in 🇷🇺Penza
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🇺🇸🇨🇳 A U.S. startup's $240,000 autonomous sea drone got close enough to film a Chinese Type 052D destroyer in Philippine waters. The footage highlights how cheap unmanned vessels can surveil—and potentially threaten—much more expensive warships - Reuters
This thing can't be detected by a surface naval radar.
Why build a submarine that costs billions?
Why build a submarine that costs billions?
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