The US acquired Japan's manufacturing power in 1985. It acquired its future in chips in 1999.
Today, only one machine is used in the world to produce the most advanced chips.
There is only one company that can make it, and last year it produced only 48.
That company is located in the Netherlands.
The person who came up with the idea for the machine is Japanese.
When asked how Japan lost this opportunity, everyone looks at the same place.
In 1985, an agreement was signed with the US. Japan's currency strengthened, and its exports collapsed.
Most people know this part.
The real decision was made 14 years later. It didn't even make the news.
Today, all the advanced chips in the world are the result of that second decision.
Let's start from the beginning.
In 1986, at a physics conference in Japan, a researcher working at NTT took the podium.
His name was Hiroo Kinoshita.
He said that they were approaching the limit of light used to produce chips.
He then explained that the wavelength would need to be much shorter, but such a short wavelength wouldn't be able to pass through glass.
In other words, lenses wouldn't be usable; the light would be directed by mirrors.
The audience didn't believe him.
Today, all advanced chips in the world are produced using exactly that method.
In those years, Japan dominated this industry.
In 1995, 77.6% of chip-producing machines came from Japanese companies.
Today, only one machine is used in the world to produce the most advanced chips.
There is only one company that can make it, and last year it produced only 48.
That company is located in the Netherlands.
The person who came up with the idea for the machine is Japanese.
When asked how Japan lost this opportunity, everyone looks at the same place.
In 1985, an agreement was signed with the US. Japan's currency strengthened, and its exports collapsed.
Most people know this part.
The real decision was made 14 years later. It didn't even make the news.
Today, all the advanced chips in the world are the result of that second decision.
Let's start from the beginning.
In 1986, at a physics conference in Japan, a researcher working at NTT took the podium.
His name was Hiroo Kinoshita.
He said that they were approaching the limit of light used to produce chips.
He then explained that the wavelength would need to be much shorter, but such a short wavelength wouldn't be able to pass through glass.
In other words, lenses wouldn't be usable; the light would be directed by mirrors.
The audience didn't believe him.
Today, all advanced chips in the world are produced using exactly that method.
In those years, Japan dominated this industry.
In 1995, 77.6% of chip-producing machines came from Japanese companies.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
Nikon alone held 48.9%, Canon 28.7%.
The Dutch company ASML held 15.9%.
So they had the idea, and they had the market.
In the late 1990s, the US formed a research alliance to turn this idea into a working machine.
It included Intel and three US national laboratories:
Lawrence Livermore, Lawrence Berkeley, and Sandia.
Nikon and Canon wanted to join this alliance.
Congress did not allow it. The reason was clear:
Research funded by American taxpayers could not be given to a competitor that had set back American industry. Thus, neither of the two Japanese companies gained access to the patents.
In 1999, the same door opened for ASML.
The reason is also on record:
The Netherlands was considered a neutral zone in the semiconductor war between the US and Japan.
So the decision wasn't technical; it was about who was in which country.
According to the latest data, ASML holds 94.1% of the market.
Nikon is at 2.5%, and Canon at 3.4%.
The current dominance of that machine is also evident.
That machine is at the heart of the chip bans the US has imposed on China.
It's also what China has been trying to achieve for years.
What's happening here isn't actually specific to the chip.
Finding an idea isn't enough. Often, someone else decides who will develop that idea.
The same thing happened in Japan in other fields.
Shuji Nakamura invented the blue-light LED in Japan.
He received about $170 for transferring the patent to the company. He left the country, went to the US, became an American citizen there, and received the Nobel Prize there.
Fujio Masuoka invented flash memory at Toshiba in 1980.
He received a bonus of a few hundred dollars, after which he was demoted. Intel was the first company to make big money from that technology.
So the problem wasn't the inability to generate ideas. It was the inability to retain them.
So where does Japan stand in this chain today?
More than 90% of the light-sensitive chemicals used in advanced chips are Japanese.
More than half of the silicon wafers are Japanese.
Approximately 88% of the machines that apply that chemical to the wafers are Japanese.
But another name is written on the chip.
Now let's look at today.
The US has tied almost its entire future to artificial intelligence. Its companies, stock market, energy plans, and foreign policy are built upon it.
And what artificial intelligence works on is the chip.
The method of producing those chips is based on an idea described by a Japanese person in 1986.
The entire future of the US rests on a sentence that a room didn't believe in 40 years ago.
The Dutch company ASML held 15.9%.
So they had the idea, and they had the market.
In the late 1990s, the US formed a research alliance to turn this idea into a working machine.
It included Intel and three US national laboratories:
Lawrence Livermore, Lawrence Berkeley, and Sandia.
Nikon and Canon wanted to join this alliance.
Congress did not allow it. The reason was clear:
Research funded by American taxpayers could not be given to a competitor that had set back American industry. Thus, neither of the two Japanese companies gained access to the patents.
In 1999, the same door opened for ASML.
The reason is also on record:
The Netherlands was considered a neutral zone in the semiconductor war between the US and Japan.
So the decision wasn't technical; it was about who was in which country.
According to the latest data, ASML holds 94.1% of the market.
Nikon is at 2.5%, and Canon at 3.4%.
The current dominance of that machine is also evident.
That machine is at the heart of the chip bans the US has imposed on China.
It's also what China has been trying to achieve for years.
What's happening here isn't actually specific to the chip.
Finding an idea isn't enough. Often, someone else decides who will develop that idea.
The same thing happened in Japan in other fields.
Shuji Nakamura invented the blue-light LED in Japan.
He received about $170 for transferring the patent to the company. He left the country, went to the US, became an American citizen there, and received the Nobel Prize there.
Fujio Masuoka invented flash memory at Toshiba in 1980.
He received a bonus of a few hundred dollars, after which he was demoted. Intel was the first company to make big money from that technology.
So the problem wasn't the inability to generate ideas. It was the inability to retain them.
So where does Japan stand in this chain today?
More than 90% of the light-sensitive chemicals used in advanced chips are Japanese.
More than half of the silicon wafers are Japanese.
Approximately 88% of the machines that apply that chemical to the wafers are Japanese.
But another name is written on the chip.
Now let's look at today.
The US has tied almost its entire future to artificial intelligence. Its companies, stock market, energy plans, and foreign policy are built upon it.
And what artificial intelligence works on is the chip.
The method of producing those chips is based on an idea described by a Japanese person in 1986.
The entire future of the US rests on a sentence that a room didn't believe in 40 years ago.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
🚨 Andrew Tate is being sued over an alleged "Hackathon" scam.
The lawsuit alleges that the Tate promised over $1 million in prizes, never announced any winners and gave away nothing.
The lawsuit alleges that the Tate promised over $1 million in prizes, never announced any winners and gave away nothing.
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🇷🇺 Russian authorities have issued an international arrest warrant for Telegram founder Pavel Durov – accusing him of aiding and abetting terrorism.
The response came via a Telegram account on X, wordlessly, as an image.
The domestic intelligence service, the FSB, justifies the arrest warrant by claiming that Telegram operators failed to delete numerous channels, chats, and bots, even though, according to the FSB, these were used by Ukrainian intelligence services and "extremist organizations" to plan attacks, mass murders, and cybercrimes in Russia – with victims "among women and children," the agency stated. These allegations have so far originated solely from the FSB and have not been independently verified.
Durov himself calls such proceedings politically motivated – Moscow is seeking pretexts to further restrict access to the app within its own borders. The response was swift and wordless: Telegram's official account on X simply posted a picture of Durov giving the middle finger.
Durov left Russia in 2014 after authorities pressured his then-network VKontakte. He now holds French and Emirati citizenship and runs Telegram from Dubai. Meanwhile, French authorities are also investigating him for inadequate moderation and a lack of cooperation with law enforcement—a case that led to his temporary arrest in Paris in 2014.
The irony: Russia has been trying to restrict Telegram for years and promotes the state-controlled messenger MAX as an alternative—while, according to Reuters, the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense continue to use the service daily.
The response came via a Telegram account on X, wordlessly, as an image.
The domestic intelligence service, the FSB, justifies the arrest warrant by claiming that Telegram operators failed to delete numerous channels, chats, and bots, even though, according to the FSB, these were used by Ukrainian intelligence services and "extremist organizations" to plan attacks, mass murders, and cybercrimes in Russia – with victims "among women and children," the agency stated. These allegations have so far originated solely from the FSB and have not been independently verified.
Durov himself calls such proceedings politically motivated – Moscow is seeking pretexts to further restrict access to the app within its own borders. The response was swift and wordless: Telegram's official account on X simply posted a picture of Durov giving the middle finger.
Durov left Russia in 2014 after authorities pressured his then-network VKontakte. He now holds French and Emirati citizenship and runs Telegram from Dubai. Meanwhile, French authorities are also investigating him for inadequate moderation and a lack of cooperation with law enforcement—a case that led to his temporary arrest in Paris in 2014.
The irony: Russia has been trying to restrict Telegram for years and promotes the state-controlled messenger MAX as an alternative—while, according to Reuters, the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense continue to use the service daily.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
FP-1 and FP-2 are the result of continuous development, engineering expertise, and operational experience gained alongside the military. From the first versions to today: FP-1 — up to 3,400 km with a 60 kg warhead. FP-2 — up to 700 km with a warhead of up…
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On the night of July 29, 2026, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery and the Wildberries logistics hub with FP-1 drones🏭🔥
The Ryazan Oil Refinery is one of russia’s largest oil refining facilities. Owned by Rosneft, the plant is capable of processing more than 17 million tonnes of crude oil per year, producing gasoline, diesel fuel and aviation fuel.
As for Wildberries, the rebranding into Fireberries seems to be progressing nicely.
The Ryazan Oil Refinery is one of russia’s largest oil refining facilities. Owned by Rosneft, the plant is capable of processing more than 17 million tonnes of crude oil per year, producing gasoline, diesel fuel and aviation fuel.
As for Wildberries, the rebranding into Fireberries seems to be progressing nicely.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Putin can’t do peace deal in Ukraine. It would lead to him losing job, having money taken away, going to jail, and losing life. No matter how much it may be in Russia’s national interest to compromise, cut a deal, end the war, Putin understands his survival…
The Kremlin’s global influence is fracturing. 📄📉
According to a new report from Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU), Russia has just received formal diplomatic protests from India, Azerbaijan, and Botswana—three nations where Moscow has historically fought hard to maintain ties.
The SZRU notes that partners are increasingly turning their backs on Moscow due to its toxic international behavior. As the agency bluntly put it: "The world is distancing itself from its toxic partner, Russia."
When you manage to alienate long-standing, non-aligned partners like India, your geopolitical strategy is officially in freefall
According to a new report from Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU), Russia has just received formal diplomatic protests from India, Azerbaijan, and Botswana—three nations where Moscow has historically fought hard to maintain ties.
The SZRU notes that partners are increasingly turning their backs on Moscow due to its toxic international behavior. As the agency bluntly put it: "The world is distancing itself from its toxic partner, Russia."
When you manage to alienate long-standing, non-aligned partners like India, your geopolitical strategy is officially in freefall
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The philosophy of the Unmanned Systems Forces is to deploy drones to perform tasks wherever it reduces risks for service members.
This approach protects human lives.
This approach protects human lives.
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🇺🇸🇨🇳 A U.S. startup's $240,000 autonomous sea drone got close enough to film a Chinese Type 052D destroyer in Philippine waters.
The footage highlights how cheap unmanned vessels can surveil—and potentially threaten—much more expensive warships - Reuters
The footage highlights how cheap unmanned vessels can surveil—and potentially threaten—much more expensive warships - Reuters
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FACT: 3.75% (PAUSE)
FORECAST: 3.75%
PREDICTION: 3.75%
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❗️ ACCOMPANYING NOTE #FederalReserve
❗️Immediately, 3 members voted in favor of raising the interest rate by 25 basis points – Hammock, Kashkari, and Logan. The decision on the Federal Reserve interest rate was made with 9 votes (in favor of a pause) against 3.
▫️ Economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace, despite increased uncertainty, partly related to the conflict in the Middle East.
▫️ Productivity growth and capital investment remain strong.
▫️ Job growth is consistent with the growth of the labor force, and unemployment has remained virtually unchanged.
▫️ Inflation remains above the 2% target, in part due to supply shocks and rising prices in certain sectors, including energy. The Federal Reserve stated that it will ensure price stability.
❗️The Federal Reserve's balance sheet policy remains unchanged (#QE):
▫️ The Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury bills and other government securities with maturities of up to 3 years, as needed, to maintain an adequate level of reserves.
▫️ Maturities of Treasury securities will be fully reinvested, and payments on agency securities will be directed to Treasury bills.
Next: Live text transcript of the conference with K. Warsh.
❗️Immediately, 3 members voted in favor of raising the interest rate by 25 basis points – Hammock, Kashkari, and Logan. The decision on the Federal Reserve interest rate was made with 9 votes (in favor of a pause) against 3.
▫️ Economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace, despite increased uncertainty, partly related to the conflict in the Middle East.
▫️ Productivity growth and capital investment remain strong.
▫️ Job growth is consistent with the growth of the labor force, and unemployment has remained virtually unchanged.
▫️ Inflation remains above the 2% target, in part due to supply shocks and rising prices in certain sectors, including energy. The Federal Reserve stated that it will ensure price stability.
❗️The Federal Reserve's balance sheet policy remains unchanged (#QE):
▫️ The Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury bills and other government securities with maturities of up to 3 years, as needed, to maintain an adequate level of reserves.
▫️ Maturities of Treasury securities will be fully reinvested, and payments on agency securities will be directed to Treasury bills.
Next: Live text transcript of the conference with K. Warsh.
✔ The economy is demonstrating impressive resilience.
✔ The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to ensuring price stability.
✔ The Federal Reserve consciously avoids making economic forecasts.
✔ The inflation target is not a flexible benchmark.
✔ Five years of high inflation have created a lasting impression that the Fed's actual target was higher than 2%.
✔ The Federal Reserve will not deviate from its course. Inflation cannot be defeated in nine weeks.
✔ We did not act out of inertia in our discussions or in choosing a strategy.
✔ Some of the yield movements between Fed meetings have been among the most significant in recent decades.
✔ The market is reacting to incoming macroeconomic data in real time. One factor may have been the Fed's reduction of forward guidance. In my view, this is a positive development.
✔ The surge in capital investment in high technology has been impressive.
✔ The market will continue to react as it sees fit – both in terms of direction and magnitude.
✔ Investment activity remains high. Capital investment is laying the foundation for future economic growth.
✔ Investment in AI is laying the foundation for future growth. The boom in capital investment is increasing the cost of infrastructure for AI.
✔ We discussed the high inflation of the past five years extensively.
✔ We considered recent economic shocks. We discussed price increases, monetary policy tools, and strategy.
✔ The market is now reacting much more directly to events, and we are trying not to interfere and to get the clearest signal possible from it.
✔ We are observing rising yields and are trying not to interfere in this process.
✔ Interpreting market signals is far from an exact science.
✔ According to the bond market, the economy remains strong and stable.
✔ Even if we have done very little, the market has already done a significant amount of work.
✔ Regarding disagreements on interest rates within the Federal Reserve: I wanted a good family discussion – and I got one. The majority agreed that we have all the necessary tools to ensure price stability. The discussion was active and substantive.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
(Part 2)
✔ When using a macro data-driven approach, there are two problems: the data itself and the excessive reliance on it. The overall trend is what's important.
✔ The June data on core inflation had almost no impact on today's decision.
✔ We have received several encouraging signals regarding inflation and will continue to closely monitor the data.
✔ I don't want to create the impression that we are anxiously awaiting each new economic indicator.
✔ In a couple of weeks, we will discuss the situation with the working group on inflation.
✔ U.S. Treasury yields are currently higher than at the previous Federal Reserve meeting.
✔ We will need to make some important decisions in the near future. During that time, the market will also have a lot to assess.
❗️Market prices are one of many channels through which monetary policy affects the economy. We will continue to monitor market signals.
✔ The discussion showed a high level of agreement within the Federal Reserve on complex issues.
✔ In my opinion, now is the time to carefully observe and analyze the situation.
✔ There has been a mistaken impression that the Federal Reserve is willing to tolerate inflation slightly above the target level.
❗️If inflation remains high, a rate hike may be part of our decision.
✔ A significant portion of our discussion was devoted to the underlying factors of inflation in the context of economic shocks.
✔ At this stage, economic shocks are making our task somewhat more difficult.
✔ If you were to call today's decision a pause, the financial markets would not agree. Today's Federal Reserve decision is just the beginning, not the end of the story.
✔ We have not yet begun to discuss the content of my speech in Jackson Hole. In Jackson Hole, I would like to outline the key issues.
✔ I do not believe that the two goals of the Federal Reserve (labor market/inflation) are in conflict with each other.
✔ The situation with full employment in the country is quite good, while the situation with price stability is significantly worse.
✔ We have a reasonable understanding of demand, and we are basing our supply decisions on that.
✔ I will give dissenting members of the Federal Reserve the opportunity to express their views themselves.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
(Part 3)
✔ I was encouraged that the market reacted not to the Fed's statements or the specific interest rate forecast, but to real-time events.
✔ We neither support nor condemn specific market movements, but we are closely monitoring them.
❗️ When inflation accelerates, central banks are likely to tighten monetary policy.
✔ When employment remains stable, but core inflation accelerates, any central bank leader is more likely to lean towards tightening policy.
✔ Who knows what we will say about our strategy in January. Our primary inflation indicator is the PCE index, and we will continue to focus on it.
✔ To bring inflation back to 2%, I analyze a broader set of indicators, not just the PCE.
✔ This is not an exact science, but we have a separate project that helps to separate market noise from meaningful signals.
❗️ Today's decision was the complete opposite of a knee-jerk reaction. Our approach may change significantly in the coming months.
❗️ Judging by the yield curve of government bonds and the dollar exchange rate, the market generally believes that the Fed is in control and is capable of achieving results.
✔ I selected 15 leading experts to work on five key questions, but we make the final decisions.
✔ I see that households and businesses are running out of patience. We are fully focused on achieving price stability.
❗️ Looking at market prices overall, they do not signal that all risks are behind us – financial conditions have tightened.
✔ The market can be a valuable source of information, but it is not the ultimate source of truth. We simply want to receive information in the most direct and unbiased way possible.
❗️ By the end of the year, I intend to hold press conferences after Fed meetings.
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