🔥 The Fed meeting is tomorrow!

There is a nearly 66.3% probability that the interest rate will remain unchanged (a PAUSE). The chance of an interest rate increase is 33.7%.

▪️Reuters:
- All 104 economists surveyed expect a pause, however, the market anticipates a possible surprise increase.
- The most likely time for the start of an interest rate hike is September.

▪️WSJ:
- This is one of the most unpredictable Fed meetings in recent years.
- The slowdown in inflation speaks in favor of a pause, while the surge in oil prices and the hawkish stance of some members of the Fed support a potential increase.
- Kevin Warsh has deliberately not revealed his position, so the outcome of the meeting remains uncertain.

▪️FT:
- Investors have sharply increased their bets on a tightening of monetary policy.
- Even with a pause, the market will be looking for hints of a possible rate hike in September.

▪️Bank of America:
- The base case scenario is a pause. However, the bank expects three rate hikes in subsequent meetings, with the first one in September.

▪️Deutsche Bank:
- Expects a pause in July. Forecasts two rate hikes, starting in September.

▪️UBS:
- Does not rule out a rate hike as early as tomorrow, in order for the Fed to demonstrate its determination to bring inflation back to its target. The final decision will largely depend on Kevin Warsh's position.

▪️Citigroup:
- Expects a pause. Considers a rate hike solely to maintain the Fed's reputation to be unjustified, as long-term inflation expectations remain low.