🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
He really looks very dead ☠
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❗️“All of this needs to be stopped,” — the president of Kazakhstan proposed to Putin that the war in Ukraine be frozen.
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Everyone is looking at who is selling US Treasury bonds. The real question is who has stopped buying.
Everyone is looking at the same thing in the US Treasury market: Who is selling, how much are they selling, and how much did China reduce its stock this month?
However, a bond market is often shaken not by selling, but by a halt in buying. Selling is visible, everyone talks about it. A halt in buying, however, is silent; it's simply that a buyer who sits at the table every month one day doesn't.
That buyer is Japan.
Japan is the country holding the most US Treasury bonds in the world, with approximately $1.2 trillion. This figure is almost double China's.
Last month, that silence was broken.
In June, Japanese insurance companies bought $3.9 billion worth of long-term Japanese government bonds. This was the highest monthly purchase in three years, and the same companies were sellers just a month earlier.
Because the figure was small, nobody focused on it.
What's important here isn't the size, but the change in direction. Because they didn't just earn that money, they simply took it from one place and put it somewhere else.
So how did that $1.2 trillion get there?
In 1985, the US faced a serious problem. Japanese goods were cheaper in every sector, and American factories were closing.
The solution was simple: the Japanese currency was made more expensive.
As the yen gained value, Japanese products became expensive in the global market, and export power quickly eroded.
To compensate, Japan lowered interest rates and flooded the market with money. But that money didn't go to factories; it went to land and the stock market.
In 1990, the bubble burst.
Afterward, prices fell for years.
As prices fell, consumption and investment stalled because those who waited profited. To break this, Japan first lowered interest rates to zero, then to negative levels.
The ironic part is this:
Japan didn't keep interest rates at zero to finance the world; it kept them there to stop the price decline within its own country.
The result was that the yen became the only major currency in the world that could be borrowed from for free.
For the Japanese saver, the equation was simple.
Everyone is looking at the same thing in the US Treasury market: Who is selling, how much are they selling, and how much did China reduce its stock this month?
However, a bond market is often shaken not by selling, but by a halt in buying. Selling is visible, everyone talks about it. A halt in buying, however, is silent; it's simply that a buyer who sits at the table every month one day doesn't.
That buyer is Japan.
Japan is the country holding the most US Treasury bonds in the world, with approximately $1.2 trillion. This figure is almost double China's.
Last month, that silence was broken.
In June, Japanese insurance companies bought $3.9 billion worth of long-term Japanese government bonds. This was the highest monthly purchase in three years, and the same companies were sellers just a month earlier.
Because the figure was small, nobody focused on it.
What's important here isn't the size, but the change in direction. Because they didn't just earn that money, they simply took it from one place and put it somewhere else.
So how did that $1.2 trillion get there?
In 1985, the US faced a serious problem. Japanese goods were cheaper in every sector, and American factories were closing.
The solution was simple: the Japanese currency was made more expensive.
As the yen gained value, Japanese products became expensive in the global market, and export power quickly eroded.
To compensate, Japan lowered interest rates and flooded the market with money. But that money didn't go to factories; it went to land and the stock market.
In 1990, the bubble burst.
Afterward, prices fell for years.
As prices fell, consumption and investment stalled because those who waited profited. To break this, Japan first lowered interest rates to zero, then to negative levels.
The ironic part is this:
Japan didn't keep interest rates at zero to finance the world; it kept them there to stop the price decline within its own country.
The result was that the yen became the only major currency in the world that could be borrowed from for free.
For the Japanese saver, the equation was simple.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
Bonds weren't yielding any returns domestically, so the money didn't stay there. It went out to seek yield, and the biggest destination became US Treasury bonds.
Here's the crucial point.
In 1985, the US established a system to stop Japan. That system kept Japan stagnant for 40 years, and the same system financed the US cheaply for 40 years.
The trap turned into a supply line.
Now that line is closing. Prices are rising in Japan, waiting is costing them money, and government bonds are yielding a real return for the first time. The reason for the money to stay abroad is disappearing.
Insurance companies have also returned for this reason.
Japan isn't leaving this return to chance.
It's proposing to include government bonds in the tax-free program for individual investors and telling large pension funds to increase their weighting in domestic assets.
Both seem like technical adjustments, but what's being done is opening a way for money sitting abroad to return home.
Another announcement came this week.
The Japanese Finance Minister said they are ready to take appropriate and decisive action if necessary.
Market intervention has already been attempted. Japan intervened four times in recent months, spending a total of $72 billion, and the yen did not recover. That leaves interest rates.
There's no need to predict what will happen if interest rates rise; it happened two years ago.
In August 2024, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.25%.
Funds that borrowed cheaply from Japan and invested globally saw their positions reversed simultaneously, as they now needed more money to repay the same debt. They started selling to repay, and the sell-off spread to markets unrelated to Japan.
The Tokyo stock exchange fell 12.4% in a single day, the largest daily drop since 1987. Two days later, the deputy governor of the central bank stated that they would not raise interest rates while the markets were unstable.
A 0.25% interest rate decision shook the world, and the central bank that made the decision reversed itself within 48 hours.
There's something else. That $1.2 trillion isn't actually the total.
The figure comes from the tracking data published monthly by the US, and that data records where the bond is stored, not who owns it. When a Japanese institution invests its money through a fund in the Cayman Islands, that bond is recorded as Cayman, not Japan.
The Cayman Islands don't have a significant economy. Despite this, they rank high on the list of holders of US bonds.
That's a base of $1.2 trillion.
Moreover, it's the slowest-moving part because the tracked money moves slowly as it passes through institutional channels. The untraceable part is debt-driven, yield-seeking money, and that's the first to exit.
There's also the issue of timing on the US side.
This year, approximately $10 trillion of old debt will be renewed, and the yield on the new bond will be determined by demand. If the most loyal ally withdraws slightly from the table, the remaining creditors will have a justification ready.
Let me add a note here.
Some of this is not certain. Japan hasn't officially confirmed its interventions, and the bond data doesn't show who owns it. But the data points in the same direction.
What's happening here isn't unique to Japan.
Sales don't usually signal the end of a system. Sales are noisy; everyone hears them. A halt in buying is silent; it's just that one less person sits at the table for a day.
Money is where it finds its value.
For many years, the Japanese currency lacked value in its own country, so it went abroad and expanded its reach. If value begins to build up domestically, no one needs to make a separate decision for it to return.
You can track this without waiting for news.
Are insurance companies continuing their monthly bond purchases?
Is Japanese investors reducing their overseas bond purchases?
Is government bond entering the tax-free investment program?
Are large pension funds changing their asset allocation?
If these four points are pointing in the same direction, the issue isn't a one-month fluctuation.
Everyone is still looking at who's selling.
However, in a 40-year-old system, the real break doesn't begin with someone selling, but with someone who buys every month stopping one day.
Here's the crucial point.
In 1985, the US established a system to stop Japan. That system kept Japan stagnant for 40 years, and the same system financed the US cheaply for 40 years.
The trap turned into a supply line.
Now that line is closing. Prices are rising in Japan, waiting is costing them money, and government bonds are yielding a real return for the first time. The reason for the money to stay abroad is disappearing.
Insurance companies have also returned for this reason.
Japan isn't leaving this return to chance.
It's proposing to include government bonds in the tax-free program for individual investors and telling large pension funds to increase their weighting in domestic assets.
Both seem like technical adjustments, but what's being done is opening a way for money sitting abroad to return home.
Another announcement came this week.
The Japanese Finance Minister said they are ready to take appropriate and decisive action if necessary.
Market intervention has already been attempted. Japan intervened four times in recent months, spending a total of $72 billion, and the yen did not recover. That leaves interest rates.
There's no need to predict what will happen if interest rates rise; it happened two years ago.
In August 2024, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.25%.
Funds that borrowed cheaply from Japan and invested globally saw their positions reversed simultaneously, as they now needed more money to repay the same debt. They started selling to repay, and the sell-off spread to markets unrelated to Japan.
The Tokyo stock exchange fell 12.4% in a single day, the largest daily drop since 1987. Two days later, the deputy governor of the central bank stated that they would not raise interest rates while the markets were unstable.
A 0.25% interest rate decision shook the world, and the central bank that made the decision reversed itself within 48 hours.
There's something else. That $1.2 trillion isn't actually the total.
The figure comes from the tracking data published monthly by the US, and that data records where the bond is stored, not who owns it. When a Japanese institution invests its money through a fund in the Cayman Islands, that bond is recorded as Cayman, not Japan.
The Cayman Islands don't have a significant economy. Despite this, they rank high on the list of holders of US bonds.
That's a base of $1.2 trillion.
Moreover, it's the slowest-moving part because the tracked money moves slowly as it passes through institutional channels. The untraceable part is debt-driven, yield-seeking money, and that's the first to exit.
There's also the issue of timing on the US side.
This year, approximately $10 trillion of old debt will be renewed, and the yield on the new bond will be determined by demand. If the most loyal ally withdraws slightly from the table, the remaining creditors will have a justification ready.
Let me add a note here.
Some of this is not certain. Japan hasn't officially confirmed its interventions, and the bond data doesn't show who owns it. But the data points in the same direction.
What's happening here isn't unique to Japan.
Sales don't usually signal the end of a system. Sales are noisy; everyone hears them. A halt in buying is silent; it's just that one less person sits at the table for a day.
Money is where it finds its value.
For many years, the Japanese currency lacked value in its own country, so it went abroad and expanded its reach. If value begins to build up domestically, no one needs to make a separate decision for it to return.
You can track this without waiting for news.
Are insurance companies continuing their monthly bond purchases?
Is Japanese investors reducing their overseas bond purchases?
Is government bond entering the tax-free investment program?
Are large pension funds changing their asset allocation?
If these four points are pointing in the same direction, the issue isn't a one-month fluctuation.
Everyone is still looking at who's selling.
However, in a 40-year-old system, the real break doesn't begin with someone selling, but with someone who buys every month stopping one day.
✍1
Why does Trump want the Clarity Act so much? The answer isn't in crypto.
Trump recently made a statement.
He said that they are far ahead of China and all other countries in the crypto space, and that they want to stay ahead. He added that the only thing missing is the passage of the Clarity Act.
Everyone thought this was a crypto statement. However, what Trump was really talking about was the future of the dollar.
So what is this Clarity Act?
For years, the rules of cryptocurrency in the US have been unclear.
Whether a cryptocurrency counts as a stock or a commodity, nobody knew for sure. Two separate institutions, overlapping authorities, endless lawsuits.
Because of this uncertainty, many companies either couldn't do business or fled abroad.
The Clarity Act ends this confusion.
It clarifies which cryptocurrency will be regulated by which institution and according to which rules. Its name itself means clarity.
So why would a president attach so much importance to an ordinary regulatory law? The answer isn't in the law, it's in the dollar itself.
The dollar has been the world's currency for 80 years. Oil is sold in dollars, countries hold their reserves in dollars, and payments go through the dollar system.
Everyone needs dollars, so they accumulate dollars and US Treasury bonds.
But now money is becoming digital. This is where dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies, or stablecoins, come into play.
A stablecoin is always worth $1 because it is backed by real dollars and US Treasury bonds.
When someone in Germany, Japan, or Türkiye receives this currency on their phone, they are holding dollars without a US bank. Thus, dollars enter the pockets of billions of people at internet speed.
There's more.
As these currencies grow, the companies that issue them are forced to buy more US Treasury bonds. Today, Tether holds over $120 billion in US Treasury bonds.
This makes it one of the world's largest bondholders, even larger than Germany.
So, the dollar stablecoin is a double win for the US. It both spreads the dollar globally and creates a huge buyer for US debt.
With so much money circulating, a fight has broken out within the US itself.
On one side are the banks, on the other, the cryptocurrency exchanges.
The banks' fear is clear.
If stablecoins pay interest, people will withdraw their money from banks and move it there. The bank will then lose its most valuable asset: cheap deposits.
After long negotiations, a middle ground was found. Paying interest on idle stablecoins was prohibited, but usage-based rewards were allowed.
The banks were still not happy with this, sending over 8,000 letters of objection to the Senate offices.
The law has now passed the Senate Banking Committee. However, it still has a few hurdles to overcome before it can pass the entire Senate and become law.
This is why Trump insisted on only passing the Clarity Act.
Now let's look at the bigger picture.
The US and China have chosen two diametrically opposed paths for the currency of the future.
The US government has banned digital currency. It has left the job to dollar stablecoins issued by private companies. The government only sets the rules, and those rules are the Clarity Act.
China, on the other hand, is doing the opposite. It's nationalizing the currency, issuing the digital yuan itself, and monitoring every transaction. Its goal is to create a world independent of the dollar and SWIFT.
Two contrasting models, but the same goal: to become the global currency of the future.
That's why when Trump says we should stay ahead of China in crypto, he's not actually talking about a technology race. He's defending a throne.
That's why the Clarity Act isn't just an ordinary law.
It's the US move to bring the dollar into the digital world. China is trying the same thing with its own currency.
The issue isn't crypto.
The issue is which currency will govern the digital world.
Trump recently made a statement.
He said that they are far ahead of China and all other countries in the crypto space, and that they want to stay ahead. He added that the only thing missing is the passage of the Clarity Act.
Everyone thought this was a crypto statement. However, what Trump was really talking about was the future of the dollar.
So what is this Clarity Act?
For years, the rules of cryptocurrency in the US have been unclear.
Whether a cryptocurrency counts as a stock or a commodity, nobody knew for sure. Two separate institutions, overlapping authorities, endless lawsuits.
Because of this uncertainty, many companies either couldn't do business or fled abroad.
The Clarity Act ends this confusion.
It clarifies which cryptocurrency will be regulated by which institution and according to which rules. Its name itself means clarity.
So why would a president attach so much importance to an ordinary regulatory law? The answer isn't in the law, it's in the dollar itself.
The dollar has been the world's currency for 80 years. Oil is sold in dollars, countries hold their reserves in dollars, and payments go through the dollar system.
Everyone needs dollars, so they accumulate dollars and US Treasury bonds.
But now money is becoming digital. This is where dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies, or stablecoins, come into play.
A stablecoin is always worth $1 because it is backed by real dollars and US Treasury bonds.
When someone in Germany, Japan, or Türkiye receives this currency on their phone, they are holding dollars without a US bank. Thus, dollars enter the pockets of billions of people at internet speed.
There's more.
As these currencies grow, the companies that issue them are forced to buy more US Treasury bonds. Today, Tether holds over $120 billion in US Treasury bonds.
This makes it one of the world's largest bondholders, even larger than Germany.
So, the dollar stablecoin is a double win for the US. It both spreads the dollar globally and creates a huge buyer for US debt.
With so much money circulating, a fight has broken out within the US itself.
On one side are the banks, on the other, the cryptocurrency exchanges.
The banks' fear is clear.
If stablecoins pay interest, people will withdraw their money from banks and move it there. The bank will then lose its most valuable asset: cheap deposits.
After long negotiations, a middle ground was found. Paying interest on idle stablecoins was prohibited, but usage-based rewards were allowed.
The banks were still not happy with this, sending over 8,000 letters of objection to the Senate offices.
The law has now passed the Senate Banking Committee. However, it still has a few hurdles to overcome before it can pass the entire Senate and become law.
This is why Trump insisted on only passing the Clarity Act.
Now let's look at the bigger picture.
The US and China have chosen two diametrically opposed paths for the currency of the future.
The US government has banned digital currency. It has left the job to dollar stablecoins issued by private companies. The government only sets the rules, and those rules are the Clarity Act.
China, on the other hand, is doing the opposite. It's nationalizing the currency, issuing the digital yuan itself, and monitoring every transaction. Its goal is to create a world independent of the dollar and SWIFT.
Two contrasting models, but the same goal: to become the global currency of the future.
That's why when Trump says we should stay ahead of China in crypto, he's not actually talking about a technology race. He's defending a throne.
That's why the Clarity Act isn't just an ordinary law.
It's the US move to bring the dollar into the digital world. China is trying the same thing with its own currency.
The issue isn't crypto.
The issue is which currency will govern the digital world.
✍1
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Every mistake is a lesson, but every risk is a possibilty
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 My Analysis: The U.S. May Be Entering a New Phase of the Iran War
The biggest challenge for the United States is no longer simply striking targets inside Iran. The real problem is what comes next.
Iran has shown that it can absorb heavy airstrikes while continuing to launch missiles and drones against U.S. forces, military bases, and infrastructure across the Gulf. That creates a much more complicated battlefield for Washington.
If the conflict expands toward critical energy infrastructure, the risks become even greater. Any major damage to Gulf oil facilities or shipping routes could trigger a massive economic shock, while an Iranian retaliation against regional energy infrastructure could create enormous consequences for the U.S., its allies, and the global economy.
This could force Washington to reconsider its strategy.
The U.S. may need to combine sustained long range airpower with stronger ground based air defense, deploying significantly larger numbers of interceptors and layered missile defense systems to protect its forces and regional allies from Iranian retaliation.
A ground operation would be an extremely costly and dangerous option, but if the current air campaign fails to achieve its objectives, pressure for a broader change in strategy could increase.
One thing that stands out to me is the continued effectiveness of the B 2 Spirit. The stealth bomber's ability to penetrate heavily defended airspace, operate at long range, and deliver precision strikes against high value and hardened targets makes it one of the most important platforms in the U.S. arsenal for this type of conflict.
My assessment is that the U.S. is approaching a strategic decision point: continue the current air campaign, significantly expand defensive capabilities, or fundamentally change the way the war is being fought.
The next phase could determine whether Iran can be forced to change its behavior or whether the conflict evolves into a much larger regional war.
The biggest challenge for the United States is no longer simply striking targets inside Iran. The real problem is what comes next.
Iran has shown that it can absorb heavy airstrikes while continuing to launch missiles and drones against U.S. forces, military bases, and infrastructure across the Gulf. That creates a much more complicated battlefield for Washington.
If the conflict expands toward critical energy infrastructure, the risks become even greater. Any major damage to Gulf oil facilities or shipping routes could trigger a massive economic shock, while an Iranian retaliation against regional energy infrastructure could create enormous consequences for the U.S., its allies, and the global economy.
This could force Washington to reconsider its strategy.
The U.S. may need to combine sustained long range airpower with stronger ground based air defense, deploying significantly larger numbers of interceptors and layered missile defense systems to protect its forces and regional allies from Iranian retaliation.
A ground operation would be an extremely costly and dangerous option, but if the current air campaign fails to achieve its objectives, pressure for a broader change in strategy could increase.
One thing that stands out to me is the continued effectiveness of the B 2 Spirit. The stealth bomber's ability to penetrate heavily defended airspace, operate at long range, and deliver precision strikes against high value and hardened targets makes it one of the most important platforms in the U.S. arsenal for this type of conflict.
My assessment is that the U.S. is approaching a strategic decision point: continue the current air campaign, significantly expand defensive capabilities, or fundamentally change the way the war is being fought.
The next phase could determine whether Iran can be forced to change its behavior or whether the conflict evolves into a much larger regional war.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
“Crypto is a scam” Me:
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You thought trading was a shortcut to money but it taught you the meaning of life instead
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The most violent encounter is looking in the eyes of the version of you who actually did it
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
👀 Ships involved in transporting military cargo from Iran, as well as a military ship, have been attacked in the Caspian Sea, — Zelenskyy.
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Ukraine says it has struck several vessels in the Caspian Sea used to transport Russian military cargo to Iran. Reports suggest the cargo ships Port Olya 2 and Begey were hit. Meanwhile, Iranian regime-affiliated channels are threatening ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
❗️“All of this needs to be stopped,” — the president of Kazakhstan proposed to Putin that the war in Ukraine be frozen.
🙈 Putin's face when Tokayev told him it was time to end the war in Ukraine
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Zelensky in a meeting with Raytheon VP Joseph DeAntona announces plans to co-produce Patriot interceptors “I am grateful for the company’s readiness to take our partnership to an even higher level, where Ukraine would co-produce, together with Raytheon, some…
Ukraine is going to end up being the backbone of US defense production.
Putin's a moron.
Putin's a moron.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Count Dorcula 🩸🩸🩸
❗️The Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, stated that the number of RF Armed Forces personnel on the front line has increased by 18% compared to May (or by 12% compared to June). Russian commanders, fearing inspections and the discrepancy between the real situation and the “painted-over” maps, are increasing the number of fighters in assaults, which has led to a rise in suicidal infiltration attempts aimed at displaying the flag on a drone camera. At the same time, the Russians are actively intensifying the covert mobilization of the population, so the situation should be treated soberly.
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