The Federal Reserve is currently in a "quiet period" (the chairpersons are not making public statements) – the meeting will be held on July 29th.
▪️Reuters:
- Most economists expect the interest rate to remain at 3.50-3.75%.
- The probability of a rate hike by the end of the year has increased significantly.
- Rising oil prices and persistent inflation make a rate cut in 2026 almost impossible.
▪️WSJ:
- The Federal Reserve's decision has become less predictable – the probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting has increased to approximately one-third.
▪️Barclays:
- Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to keep the interest rate unchanged.
- However, the bank does not rule out the continuation of a hawkish stance due to energy risks.
▪️JPMorgan:
- The bank expects the interest rate to remain unchanged until the end of 2026.
- The first rate change is forecast only in September 2027, and it could be a 25 basis point increase.
▪️Morgan Stanley:
- The Federal Reserve will continue to hold the interest rate at its current level.
- Despite the market pricing in at least one rate hike in 2026, Morgan Stanley believes that slowing inflation will prevent further tightening.
❗️Market expectations (interest rate #FederalReserve):
- July 29th: PAUSE.
- September 16th: Increase by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
This is the most underrated Hermes use case that 99% of people haven't set up yet. In just 3 minutes, you can set up Hermes to run as your personal assistant. This setup genuinely feels like having a real employee who never sleeps and remembers everything.…
Robinhood recently launched its new agentic trading MCP.
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It can manage your entire portfolio and execute live trades.
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In 5 minutes, you can connect a real Claude agent to Robinhood.
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This guide walks you through the entire process (from zero)
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Nasdaq $NDX is bouncing along the parabolic. If the previous trendline is still valid it should provide resistance instead of support beginning tomorrow. All volatility options expire on VIXpiration 9:00 am ET tomorrow.
The Nasdaq $NDX has broken the parabolic and has now begun the process of rolling over.
Right on schedule (July 20th).
Right on schedule (July 20th).
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The Nasdaq $NDX has broken the parabolic and has now begun the process of rolling over. Right on schedule (July 20th).
S&P 500 $SPX stocks above the 150 day moving average is still on target to the trendline that has provided resistance since 2024.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
#WTI Everyone still doesn't understand... The real reason oil is falling is the economic destruction unleashed on the global economy during the oil spike to $120. Jan 2020, oil began collapsing after a spike. 60 days later the market crashed. July 2008,…
#WTI Well, we just finished the 2nd week of the oil rebound.
If history is repeating it should begin rolling over next week, as the economic destruction and slowing growth begins to become apparent.
Not long to find out... 🤫
If history is repeating it should begin rolling over next week, as the economic destruction and slowing growth begins to become apparent.
Not long to find out... 🤫
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
What now Kevin Warsh? 😜 The 1 year yield has risen from 3.5% to 4.1% with no signs of stopping. This comes despite the Federal Reserve purchasing $511B worth of these T-Bills since Dec 2025. The last time we saw something like this was the 1970s with the…
Huge earnings week next week + Kevin Warsh's rate decision on July 29th
The Fed Funds range is 3.5-3.75% with the 3 month yield at 3.9% and rising.
This implies Kevin Warsh will be forced to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%
The Fed Funds range is 3.5-3.75% with the 3 month yield at 3.9% and rising.
This implies Kevin Warsh will be forced to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
S&P 500 $SPX stocks above the 150 day moving average is still on target to the trendline that has provided resistance since 2024.
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Listen to this... #jam_croissant is warning that some type of volatility shock potentially hits at the end of the month.
He is also warning that volatility begins expanding due to flows into the fall.
Keep in mind, there was a volatility shock precisely 1 month before the Feb 2020 crash. Historically markets also like to become unstable in September.
He is also warning that volatility begins expanding due to flows into the fall.
Keep in mind, there was a volatility shock precisely 1 month before the Feb 2020 crash. Historically markets also like to become unstable in September.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Robinhood recently launched its new agentic trading MCP. In 5 minutes, you can connect a real Claude agent to Robinhood. It can manage your entire portfolio and execute live trades. This guide walks you through the entire process (from zero)
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Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
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🚨🇷🇺🇺🇦 BREAKING: An oil refinery in Tyumen, Russia, is reportedly burning after a drone attack.
Tyumen is located more than 2,000 km from Ukraine.
The distance is the real story.
Ukraine’s strike capability is no longer limited to Russia’s border regions. Energy infrastructure deep inside the country is increasingly within reach.
Tyumen is located more than 2,000 km from Ukraine.
The distance is the real story.
Ukraine’s strike capability is no longer limited to Russia’s border regions. Energy infrastructure deep inside the country is increasingly within reach.
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Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
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JUST IN: 🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia is preparing to launch a MASSIVE retaliatory attack against the Houthis.
The move follows reports that multiple Houthi ballistic missiles struck Saudi Aramco facilities, prompting Riyadh to close its airspace as military preparations intensify.
A large scale wave of airstrikes is now widely anticipated, with the latest developments raising fears of one of the biggest escalations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in years.
The move follows reports that multiple Houthi ballistic missiles struck Saudi Aramco facilities, prompting Riyadh to close its airspace as military preparations intensify.
A large scale wave of airstrikes is now widely anticipated, with the latest developments raising fears of one of the biggest escalations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in years.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump Shifts Into ‘Revenge Mode’, Tehran Braces as Diplomacy Appears to Collapse President Donald Trump has grown deeply skeptical that diplomacy with Iran can succeed and is now in "revenge mode," according to a senior administration official.…
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 America's most powerful bombers are moving into position.
Long range B-2 Spirit and B-52 Stratofortress bombers are reportedly on high alert, while additional aerial refueling aircraft have been repositioned closer to the Middle East, significantly expanding the U.S. military's long range strike capability.
The buildup is fueling speculation that Washington could be preparing for a massive bombing campaign against Iran if the crisis escalates further.
Long range B-2 Spirit and B-52 Stratofortress bombers are reportedly on high alert, while additional aerial refueling aircraft have been repositioned closer to the Middle East, significantly expanding the U.S. military's long range strike capability.
The buildup is fueling speculation that Washington could be preparing for a massive bombing campaign against Iran if the crisis escalates further.
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Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
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🇨🇳🇾🇪🇸🇦 China is now operating with a strategy built decades in advance. Following the Houthi blockade of the Bab el Mandeb, while the region faces growing disruption, China appears to be calmly maintaining access to its energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, while its commercial vessels continue transiting the Red Sea without facing significant interference.
Why?
China identified the world's key strategic chokepoints years ago and began establishing military and logistical footholds near them long before today's crises emerged.
At present, two Chinese commercial vessels are reportedly loading oil at Yanbu and continuing their journey through the Red Sea toward the Arabian Sea. The Houthis have issued warnings and imposed a blockade, yet Chinese shipping continues to move.
The reason is simple. China has a military presence in Djibouti, positioned near the Bab el Mandeb. Any serious attack on Chinese shipping could trigger a much stronger response.
This is the advantage of long term strategic planning. China is not reacting to the crisis today. It positioned itself for it years ago.
Why?
China identified the world's key strategic chokepoints years ago and began establishing military and logistical footholds near them long before today's crises emerged.
At present, two Chinese commercial vessels are reportedly loading oil at Yanbu and continuing their journey through the Red Sea toward the Arabian Sea. The Houthis have issued warnings and imposed a blockade, yet Chinese shipping continues to move.
The reason is simple. China has a military presence in Djibouti, positioned near the Bab el Mandeb. Any serious attack on Chinese shipping could trigger a much stronger response.
This is the advantage of long term strategic planning. China is not reacting to the crisis today. It positioned itself for it years ago.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🇸🇦💥🇾🇪 The Royal Saudi Air Force has launched airstrikes against Hodeidah Port in western Yemen. The strategic Red Sea port is controlled by Ansarallah, also known as the Houthis, and serves as a critical maritime and logistics hub for the group. 🔥 The strikes…
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🇸🇦🇾🇪 Overnight, the Houthis reportedly launched a retaliatory missile attack against Saudi Arabia following recent Royal Saudi Air Force strikes.
Several Houthi missiles were reported to have targeted the Jizan region.
Several Houthi missiles were reported to have targeted the Jizan region.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Overnight, the Houthis reportedly launched a retaliatory missile attack against Saudi Arabia following recent Royal Saudi Air Force strikes. Several Houthi missiles were reported to have targeted the Jizan region.
BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis have reportedly struck Saudi Aramco's Jazan oil facilities with multiple ballistic missiles, with videos appearing to show a massive fire and mushroom-shaped plume rising over the area.
Regional reports indicate at least five ballistic missiles were fired toward Jazan on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast.
A second wave of Yemeni ballistic missiles was reportedly launched shortly afterward, with targets said to include Yanbu (East-West Pipeline), Jazan (Saudi Aramco facilities), and Khamis Mushait (King Khalid Air Base) in Saudi Arabia.
Regional reports indicate at least five ballistic missiles were fired toward Jazan on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast.
A second wave of Yemeni ballistic missiles was reportedly launched shortly afterward, with targets said to include Yanbu (East-West Pipeline), Jazan (Saudi Aramco facilities), and Khamis Mushait (King Khalid Air Base) in Saudi Arabia.
🔥1
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
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One of Saudi Arabia’s largest and most strategic oil refineries has been struck by Yemen’s Houthi's using ballistic missiles.
Saudi Aramco’s Jazan complex processes 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day and is a key fuel export hub on the Red Sea.
Saudi Aramco’s Jazan complex processes 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day and is a key fuel export hub on the Red Sea.
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🚨🇸🇦 BREAKING: Smoke is rising over Jazan, Saudi Arabia right now
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