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This might be the best video you'll watch online today 😂😂
⚠️US Treasury yields are up to the highest level since the Great Financial Crisis:
The 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield, a measure of real, inflation-adjusted yields, has risen to 2.96%, the highest level since 2008.
This means investors are demanding a much higher real return to hold long-dated US debt than at almost any point in nearly 2 decades, even though the Fed's benchmark rate is currently ~150 bps lower than in 2007.
This comes as the US public has exploded to $39.5 trillion, up from $8.8 trillion in 2007. US debt now exceeds 120% of GDP, while annual interest costs have surpassed $1.2 trillion.
Adding further pressure, more than $500 billion in AI-related corporate debt issuance is now competing with the government for long-term investor capital.
Meanwhile, traders now see roughly a 1-in-3 chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 28–29 meeting, reversing earlier expectations for rate cuts this year as uncertainty around the Fed’s next move increases.
As a result, bond market volatility, measured by the MOVE Index, has climbed to a 2-month high.
One clear casualty has been the long-duration bond trade: the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has fallen nearly 5% over the past month and has now lost more than half its value since 2020.
Rising yields are also becoming a bigger threat to stocks as higher long-term rates raise the discount rate for equities and put pressure on valuations.
If fiscal deterioration continues while private-sector borrowing keeps expanding, real yields may have further to rise.
The 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield, a measure of real, inflation-adjusted yields, has risen to 2.96%, the highest level since 2008.
This means investors are demanding a much higher real return to hold long-dated US debt than at almost any point in nearly 2 decades, even though the Fed's benchmark rate is currently ~150 bps lower than in 2007.
This comes as the US public has exploded to $39.5 trillion, up from $8.8 trillion in 2007. US debt now exceeds 120% of GDP, while annual interest costs have surpassed $1.2 trillion.
Adding further pressure, more than $500 billion in AI-related corporate debt issuance is now competing with the government for long-term investor capital.
Meanwhile, traders now see roughly a 1-in-3 chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 28–29 meeting, reversing earlier expectations for rate cuts this year as uncertainty around the Fed’s next move increases.
As a result, bond market volatility, measured by the MOVE Index, has climbed to a 2-month high.
One clear casualty has been the long-duration bond trade: the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has fallen nearly 5% over the past month and has now lost more than half its value since 2020.
Rising yields are also becoming a bigger threat to stocks as higher long-term rates raise the discount rate for equities and put pressure on valuations.
If fiscal deterioration continues while private-sector borrowing keeps expanding, real yields may have further to rise.
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Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
‼️THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL OIL IS SURGING AGAIN:
Dated Brent, the benchmark price for actual physical crude cargoes rather than paper futures contracts, surged to $105.6, its highest in 2 months.
This is the price refiners and traders actually pay for real barrels of oil, making it the cleanest signal of true physical tightness in the crude market.
Meanwhile, Brent futures surged above $100 on Thursday, creating a nearly $5 gap between physical barrels and financial contracts, a level of backwardation that signals the market expects conditions to get worse.
This is all unfolding as Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked 2 Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, opening a new front alongside an already-snarled Strait of Hormuz, while separate strikes on Russia's Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal add a 3rd chokepoint to global oil flows.
The oil market is entering a more fragile phase, with multiple supply chokepoints under pressure.
Dated Brent, the benchmark price for actual physical crude cargoes rather than paper futures contracts, surged to $105.6, its highest in 2 months.
This is the price refiners and traders actually pay for real barrels of oil, making it the cleanest signal of true physical tightness in the crude market.
Meanwhile, Brent futures surged above $100 on Thursday, creating a nearly $5 gap between physical barrels and financial contracts, a level of backwardation that signals the market expects conditions to get worse.
This is all unfolding as Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked 2 Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, opening a new front alongside an already-snarled Strait of Hormuz, while separate strikes on Russia's Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal add a 3rd chokepoint to global oil flows.
The oil market is entering a more fragile phase, with multiple supply chokepoints under pressure.
🔴MAGNIFICENT 7 STOCKS JUST HAD THEIR WORST DAY IN OVER A YEAR:
Mag 7 wiped out -$797 billion in market value on Thursday, its biggest one-day drop since April 2025.
Alphabet, $GOOGL , led the carnage, falling -7.1% for its biggest drop since May 2025, after posting its first-ever negative quarterly free cash flow while raising its 2026 CapEx forecast to $195-205 billion, up from a prior $180-190 billion.
Tesla, $TSLA , fell even harder, plunging -15% for its worst day since March 2025, as Elon Musk called 2026 "a massive CapEx year" following earnings that missed expectations.
Microsoft, $MSFT, Amazon, $AMZN, and Meta, $META, also fell -2.2%, -4.6%, and -3.4% respectively, with all 3 set to report earnings next week.
Apple, $AAPL, was the lone exception, posting the shallowest decline in the group, up +18% this year as the one Magnificent 7 name that largely did not participate in the AI spending surge.
Investors are no longer applauding big AI spending plans, they are punishing them for the lack of visible returns.
Mag 7 wiped out -$797 billion in market value on Thursday, its biggest one-day drop since April 2025.
Alphabet, $GOOGL , led the carnage, falling -7.1% for its biggest drop since May 2025, after posting its first-ever negative quarterly free cash flow while raising its 2026 CapEx forecast to $195-205 billion, up from a prior $180-190 billion.
Tesla, $TSLA , fell even harder, plunging -15% for its worst day since March 2025, as Elon Musk called 2026 "a massive CapEx year" following earnings that missed expectations.
Microsoft, $MSFT, Amazon, $AMZN, and Meta, $META, also fell -2.2%, -4.6%, and -3.4% respectively, with all 3 set to report earnings next week.
Apple, $AAPL, was the lone exception, posting the shallowest decline in the group, up +18% this year as the one Magnificent 7 name that largely did not participate in the AI spending surge.
Investors are no longer applauding big AI spending plans, they are punishing them for the lack of visible returns.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Only counting fully destroyed locations, the new Russian logistics center bingo board has arrived. Clear that Ukraine is hunting big game first, already the 4 largest facilities in the country have been hit, with 3 fully destroyed. We wait for news..
Russia's Wildberries logistics archipelago awaits.
There's still 16 left standing, almost all with Ukraine's range.
There's still 16 left standing, almost all with Ukraine's range.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Russia attempted a traditional armored breakthrough near Dobropillia — a move straight out of Soviet doctrine. But modern warfare doesn’t care about Soviet doctrine. 🔥 What happened • Dozens of Russian tanks and armored vehicles advanced. • Ukraine detected…
Count Dorcula 🩸🩸🩸
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🇷🇺 Elvira Nabiullina: There are no restrictions on transferring cryptocurrency out of Russia for any category of investors. However, it should be noted that such transactions do not have legal protection. Other statements by the head of the Central Bank of…
‼️ BREAKING: The Russian Central Bank decided to lower the Key Rate to
👉 14.00%
👉 14.00%
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🛢️Refinery complexity is the real edge in this market right now.
A high complexity refinery can process heavy, sour crude that trades at a discount, and turn it into the same gasoline and diesel a simple refinery makes from expensive light sweet crude.
That gap between what you pay for the barrel and what you can do with it is exactly why refining margins just hit an all time record.
Complexity is not a technical detail.
It is the entire business model.
A high complexity refinery can process heavy, sour crude that trades at a discount, and turn it into the same gasoline and diesel a simple refinery makes from expensive light sweet crude.
That gap between what you pay for the barrel and what you can do with it is exactly why refining margins just hit an all time record.
Complexity is not a technical detail.
It is the entire business model.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
MAGA straight-maxing-alpha-male, #Cobratate arrives at court for his trial 😂
China's Military Support to Iran: Dual-Use Technology & Arms Transfers (2023–July 2026)
2023 • Chinese and Hong Kong front companies continued supplying dual-use electronics, sensors, gyroscopes, MEMS devices, guidance components, and other precision parts for Iranian UAV and missile programs. • Multiple procurement networks were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury. • Iran also retained full access to China's BeiDou satellite navigation system, granted in 2021. • No confirmed deliveries of major finished weapons systems.
2024 Support shifted toward strengthening Iran's domestic production.
• Continued transfers of dual-use sensors, navigation equipment, CNC-related machinery, and industrial technology used in UAV and missile manufacturing. • Several Chinese firms were sanctioned for supplying HESA and IRGC-linked procurement networks. • No independently confirmed major weapons deliveries.
2025 Support expanded beyond electronics.
• Around 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate were reportedly loaded onto Iranian ships Golbon and Jairan at Chinese ports (FT/WSJ). • Western intelligence assessed this quantity could produce propellant for roughly 200–260 medium-range ballistic missiles after conversion to ammonium perchlorate.
Later in 2025:
• CNN, citing European intelligence, reported an additional ~2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate shipments. • Dual-use industrial chemicals and missile/drone production components continued flowing into Iran.
Following the June Israel-Iran conflict:
• Reports emerged that China supplied surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries in exchange for Iranian oil. • Possible HQ-series systems were mentioned, but specific variants remain unconfirmed. • Negotiations for more advanced air-defense systems were also reported.
2026 (Through 24 July) Chinese support accelerated as Iran rebuilt combat losses.
• Multiple additional sodium perchlorate shipments departed Chinese ports. • The Telegraph and ISW reported at least five Iranian-owned cargo vessels transporting precursor chemicals—quantities assessed as sufficient for hundreds of additional missiles.
February 2026 According to Reuters (citing six sources):
• Iran and China entered near-final negotiations for the CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile (export version of the YJ-12). • No confirmed deliveries have been reported.
Parallel regional intelligence reporting also claimed transfers of:
• Loitering munitions • HQ-16 • HQ-17AE surface-to-air missile systems
These reports remain unconfirmed independently.
April–June 2026 U.S. intelligence assessed China was preparing—or may already have transferred—MANPADS (often reported as FN-6-class) via third countries.
• China denied the allegations. • Reports also highlighted continued satellite/intelligence cooperation, including access to a Chinese reconnaissance satellite first reported in late 2024.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned additional China/Hong Kong procurement networks supporting the IRGC and MODAFL, including attempted MANPADS acquisitions.
Ongoing Support Throughout 2026, China has continued supplying:
• Dual-use electronics • Precision guidance components • Navigation systems • Industrial manufacturing equipment • BeiDou satellite navigation access
These technologies continue supporting Iran's efforts to rebuild missile and drone inventories after wartime losses.
Bottom Line China's strategy remains clear:
Rather than openly exporting major weapons, Beijing primarily provides dual-use technology, industrial materials, navigation support, and procurement channels that enable Iran to manufacture missiles and drones domestically while reducing the diplomatic and economic risks associated with overt arms sales.
2023 • Chinese and Hong Kong front companies continued supplying dual-use electronics, sensors, gyroscopes, MEMS devices, guidance components, and other precision parts for Iranian UAV and missile programs. • Multiple procurement networks were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury. • Iran also retained full access to China's BeiDou satellite navigation system, granted in 2021. • No confirmed deliveries of major finished weapons systems.
2024 Support shifted toward strengthening Iran's domestic production.
• Continued transfers of dual-use sensors, navigation equipment, CNC-related machinery, and industrial technology used in UAV and missile manufacturing. • Several Chinese firms were sanctioned for supplying HESA and IRGC-linked procurement networks. • No independently confirmed major weapons deliveries.
2025 Support expanded beyond electronics.
• Around 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate were reportedly loaded onto Iranian ships Golbon and Jairan at Chinese ports (FT/WSJ). • Western intelligence assessed this quantity could produce propellant for roughly 200–260 medium-range ballistic missiles after conversion to ammonium perchlorate.
Later in 2025:
• CNN, citing European intelligence, reported an additional ~2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate shipments. • Dual-use industrial chemicals and missile/drone production components continued flowing into Iran.
Following the June Israel-Iran conflict:
• Reports emerged that China supplied surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries in exchange for Iranian oil. • Possible HQ-series systems were mentioned, but specific variants remain unconfirmed. • Negotiations for more advanced air-defense systems were also reported.
2026 (Through 24 July) Chinese support accelerated as Iran rebuilt combat losses.
• Multiple additional sodium perchlorate shipments departed Chinese ports. • The Telegraph and ISW reported at least five Iranian-owned cargo vessels transporting precursor chemicals—quantities assessed as sufficient for hundreds of additional missiles.
February 2026 According to Reuters (citing six sources):
• Iran and China entered near-final negotiations for the CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile (export version of the YJ-12). • No confirmed deliveries have been reported.
Parallel regional intelligence reporting also claimed transfers of:
• Loitering munitions • HQ-16 • HQ-17AE surface-to-air missile systems
These reports remain unconfirmed independently.
April–June 2026 U.S. intelligence assessed China was preparing—or may already have transferred—MANPADS (often reported as FN-6-class) via third countries.
• China denied the allegations. • Reports also highlighted continued satellite/intelligence cooperation, including access to a Chinese reconnaissance satellite first reported in late 2024.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned additional China/Hong Kong procurement networks supporting the IRGC and MODAFL, including attempted MANPADS acquisitions.
Ongoing Support Throughout 2026, China has continued supplying:
• Dual-use electronics • Precision guidance components • Navigation systems • Industrial manufacturing equipment • BeiDou satellite navigation access
These technologies continue supporting Iran's efforts to rebuild missile and drone inventories after wartime losses.
Bottom Line China's strategy remains clear:
Rather than openly exporting major weapons, Beijing primarily provides dual-use technology, industrial materials, navigation support, and procurement channels that enable Iran to manufacture missiles and drones domestically while reducing the diplomatic and economic risks associated with overt arms sales.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
🇨🇳 CHINA IS SELLING THE DOLLAR'S DEBT AND BUYING THE METAL IT REPLACED
Treasury holdings: $659,000,000,000. Lowest since 2008.
Gold reserves: $303,000,000,000. 17 straight months of buying.
Central banks are not diversifying. They are choosing.
Treasury holdings: $659,000,000,000. Lowest since 2008.
Gold reserves: $303,000,000,000. 17 straight months of buying.
Central banks are not diversifying. They are choosing.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Russia's Wildberries logistics archipelago awaits. There's still 16 left standing, almost all with Ukraine's range.
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❗️Next year, Ukraine will have drones capable of flying 5–10 thousand km. Currently, we have UAVs with a range of 3,000+ km. This year there will be ones with a range of 4,000 km, – Zelenskyy.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The "Drone Wall" — The Future Shield Against Mass Drone Attacks As drones become cheaper, smarter, and deadlier, nations are racing to build a Drone Wall—a multi-layered defensive network designed to stop hostile UAVs before they can penetrate national airspace…
❗️Ukrainian company Stetman plans to launch 120 UASAT LEO communication satellites with SpaceX in 2027. The full constellation of 360 satellites is to be placed into orbit over three years and completed by 2030. The total project cost (satellites, software, launches, fees, and staff salaries) exceeds €1 billion ($1.13 billion). This was reported by Data Center Dynamics.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
$TSLA/USD H2 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
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Somewhere Michael Burry is celebrating.
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🇨🇭Switzerland has one of world’s safest rail systems, not just because of engineering, but because critical decisions are backed by traceable context.
We're chasing journeys that end safely, where the failing part gets caught before it fails.
We set out to do one thing: make facts traceable. Every answer tied to its source. Every objective tied to a real outcome it's meant to serve.
We're chasing journeys that end safely, where the failing part gets caught before it fails.
We set out to do one thing: make facts traceable. Every answer tied to its source. Every objective tied to a real outcome it's meant to serve.
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POV: You're a disciplined trader waiting for your setup during high volatility.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
❗️Axios: The US Senate may vote as early as next week on an updated package of sanctions against Russia, which is supported by more than 60 senators. After the death of Lindsey Graham, the document was revised twice: the maximum size of secondary tariffs was…
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The European Union is at it again and, as usual, taking direct aim at GREAT American Companies! After having fined Apple, for no reason at all, 15 Billion Dollars, Meta, 3 Billion Dollars, Amazon 2.5 Billion Dollars, and many others, we have just been informed that Google, a truly advanced and amazing group, has been fined yet another 1 Billion Dollars, without explanation. This brings the Google total to over 18 Billion Dollars! This illegal and highly discriminatory practice started at these high levels during the first year of the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration, but it’s not going to continue during the Trump Administration. The United States of America is not a “PIGGYBANK” for Europe, nor will we allow it to be! Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that we will immediately initiate a 301 Investigation into the practice of “ROBBING” American Companies and, in turn, the American Taxpayer. The European Union will pay a very big price for this illegal and highly unethical conduct, which I have consistently warned them about. The penalties will be entirely reversed and, we anticipate, a substantial TARIFF to be placed on them at the earliest possible moment. Stay tuned! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
China's Military Support to Iran: Dual-Use Technology & Arms Transfers (2023–July 2026) 2023 • Chinese and Hong Kong front companies continued supplying dual-use electronics, sensors, gyroscopes, MEMS devices, guidance components, and other precision parts…
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President Xi, at our recent meeting in Beijing, China, told me that he would not, under any circumstances, give or sell Weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran — And that statement included Chinese Companies. Considering our relationship, I take him at his word and, besides, l am doing him very big favors, also. Likewise, President Putin, despite the horrible War going on in Ukraine (The relationship remains, as it does with President Zelenskyy), told me that he would not sell Weapons to Iran. He understands that I do not sell Weapons to Ukraine, but to NATO Countries. They pay full price, and how those Weapons are distributed, I have no idea. Therefore, two major Countries that people speak of often in terms of Iran are, in my opinion, not participating. If they did, it would be very bad for them — Certainly not in their best interests. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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