🇺🇸 Fed balance sheet looks exactly like Q4 2019.
Back then, the Fed ended QT and slowly started injecting liquidity.
After that, Covid happened, and Trillions of dollars were printed.
This time, the Fed ended QT in December 2019 and has injected $210 Billion in liquidity so far.
Now, there are 2 major crises that could turn on the money printer.
Japan's bond market or the AI bubble.
Whichever breaks first, the markets will crash and the Fed will go full-on QE mode like 2020.
Back then, the Fed ended QT and slowly started injecting liquidity.
After that, Covid happened, and Trillions of dollars were printed.
This time, the Fed ended QT in December 2019 and has injected $210 Billion in liquidity so far.
Now, there are 2 major crises that could turn on the money printer.
Japan's bond market or the AI bubble.
Whichever breaks first, the markets will crash and the Fed will go full-on QE mode like 2020.
CHINA JUST BOUGHT GOLD AT THE FASTEST PACE IN 3 YEARS
China added 14.93 tonnes of gold in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, a 50% jump from May.
This came as gold fell to roughly $4,000-4,165, its worst quarterly level since 2013.
The pattern across the last four months is the real story:
March: 4.98 tonnes bought, gold near $5,400
April: 8.09 tonnes bought, gold near $4,600
May: 9.95 tonnes bought, gold near $4,400
June: 14.93 tonnes bought, gold near $4,000-4,165
As the price fell, China's buying accelerated every single month.
This extends the PBoC's buying streak to 20 consecutive months, the longest since records began in 2015, taking China's total holdings to 2,346 tonnes.
Gold itself crashed nearly 27% from January's record high near $5,590, its worst quarter since the 2013 taper tantrum.
The drop came from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh turning hawkish, a US-Iran peace deal removing war-risk premium, and markets pricing a 65% chance of a September rate hike.
Gold ETFs saw $3 billion in outflows, and the metal even triggered a bearish "death cross."
But this isn't just China.
Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes globally in Q1 2026 alone, and a World Gold Council survey of 76 central banks found 89% expect global reserves to keep rising, with 45% planning to add themselves, up from just 29% two years ago.
Gold still makes up less than 10% of China's total reserves, versus roughly 70% for the US and Germany.
This looks less like defending a price level and more like a multi-decade push to hold less of its reserves in dollars, with cheaper prices simply making that shift less expensive to execute.
China added 14.93 tonnes of gold in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, a 50% jump from May.
This came as gold fell to roughly $4,000-4,165, its worst quarterly level since 2013.
The pattern across the last four months is the real story:
March: 4.98 tonnes bought, gold near $5,400
April: 8.09 tonnes bought, gold near $4,600
May: 9.95 tonnes bought, gold near $4,400
June: 14.93 tonnes bought, gold near $4,000-4,165
As the price fell, China's buying accelerated every single month.
This extends the PBoC's buying streak to 20 consecutive months, the longest since records began in 2015, taking China's total holdings to 2,346 tonnes.
Gold itself crashed nearly 27% from January's record high near $5,590, its worst quarter since the 2013 taper tantrum.
The drop came from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh turning hawkish, a US-Iran peace deal removing war-risk premium, and markets pricing a 65% chance of a September rate hike.
Gold ETFs saw $3 billion in outflows, and the metal even triggered a bearish "death cross."
But this isn't just China.
Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes globally in Q1 2026 alone, and a World Gold Council survey of 76 central banks found 89% expect global reserves to keep rising, with 45% planning to add themselves, up from just 29% two years ago.
Gold still makes up less than 10% of China's total reserves, versus roughly 70% for the US and Germany.
This looks less like defending a price level and more like a multi-decade push to hold less of its reserves in dollars, with cheaper prices simply making that shift less expensive to execute.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Japanese 🇯🇵 retail investors just bet $17B against the US dollar in anticipation of massive Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention in the Yen in the coming weeks. Japan’s army of retail forex traders just made the largest collective bet against the Dollar - Yen…
3 months ago Japan 🇯🇵 discussed shorting oil futures to prevent the Yen from devaluing against the Dollar.
Are we about to see that plan go into effect?
March 2026
Market sources have told Reuters Japan's government is considering intervening in the crude oil futures market as the Middle East crisis drives energy prices up sharply.
Under the scheme, Japan would tap its $1.4 trillion foreign exchange reserves and build short positions in the oil futures market by selling futures contracts to push down prices.
By dampening demand for dollars to buy oil, Tokyo can ease selling pressure on the yen. The oil futures and currency markets have recently moved in tandem, with the Middle East conflict pushing oil prices higher while lifting safe-haven demand for the dollar.
Japanese law allows use of foreign exchange reserves, preserved as a war chest for direct currency-market intervention, to take positions in futures markets if the objective is to stabilize the yen.
The idea is being contemplated within the government, though there is no consensus on its feasibility, said three government sources with knowledge of the deliberations.
Are we about to see that plan go into effect?
March 2026
Market sources have told Reuters Japan's government is considering intervening in the crude oil futures market as the Middle East crisis drives energy prices up sharply.
Under the scheme, Japan would tap its $1.4 trillion foreign exchange reserves and build short positions in the oil futures market by selling futures contracts to push down prices.
By dampening demand for dollars to buy oil, Tokyo can ease selling pressure on the yen. The oil futures and currency markets have recently moved in tandem, with the Middle East conflict pushing oil prices higher while lifting safe-haven demand for the dollar.
Japanese law allows use of foreign exchange reserves, preserved as a war chest for direct currency-market intervention, to take positions in futures markets if the objective is to stabilize the yen.
The idea is being contemplated within the government, though there is no consensus on its feasibility, said three government sources with knowledge of the deliberations.
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Reminder: China is shutting down paper gold trading for retail traders on July 24th
The last time China did something similar was late 2020, to prioritize institutional players and limit retail exposure, Chinese banks stopped opening new paper gold and silver trading accounts for individual investors.
This was triggered by the "Crude Oil Treasure" scandal where retail investors suffered severe losses on oil linked products from the oil collapse to -$40.
Chinese banks stopped allowing new retail accounts to be opened for leveraged and deferred precious metal contracts.
The last time China did something similar was late 2020, to prioritize institutional players and limit retail exposure, Chinese banks stopped opening new paper gold and silver trading accounts for individual investors.
This was triggered by the "Crude Oil Treasure" scandal where retail investors suffered severe losses on oil linked products from the oil collapse to -$40.
Chinese banks stopped allowing new retail accounts to be opened for leveraged and deferred precious metal contracts.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Potential Diamond Top (Bearish Reversal) forming in the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ 🚨 🚨 Look for a close below 693 and expanding volume for confirmation 👀 After confirmation, Diamond Tops have an 80% success rate
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ close below 693 will confirm the Diamond Top (Bearish Reversal) 🚨🚨 Almost there 🤯👀
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
If Russia's oil wells were destroyed on a widespread basis, the consequences would be very serious.
Although Russia has more than 130,000 active oil wells and around 2,000 explored oil and gas deposits, a widespread drop in production would have serious economic consequences for Moscow.
- Loss of production. A destroyed well immediately stops producing. If the destruction affects a large number of wells, national production would fall significantly.
- Permanent damage to some reservoirs. Many oil fields operate by maintaining a certain pressure through the injection of water or gas. Prolonged fires or damage to infrastructure can alter the behavior of the reservoir and make some of the oil unrecoverable.
- Slow and costly repairs. It is not enough to simply extinguish a fire. Drilling, wellheads, pipelines, pumping stations, and control systems must be rebuilt. Depending on the damage, recovery can take from weeks to several years.
- Massive loss of revenue. Oil and gas represent a very significant portion of Russian export revenues and a substantial fraction of state budget income. A sustained drop in production would reduce the capacity to finance public spending, including the war effort.
-Problems for domestic industry. Russia also consumes millions of barrels daily. If production were to fall sharply, there would be less raw material for refineries, and domestic supply restrictions could arise.
-Environmental damage. Large well fires generate enormous emissions, soil and water pollution, and can take months to extinguish.
But...if there are no refineries to which to send the crude oil, well closures will be inevitable.
Although Russia has more than 130,000 active oil wells and around 2,000 explored oil and gas deposits, a widespread drop in production would have serious economic consequences for Moscow.
- Loss of production. A destroyed well immediately stops producing. If the destruction affects a large number of wells, national production would fall significantly.
- Permanent damage to some reservoirs. Many oil fields operate by maintaining a certain pressure through the injection of water or gas. Prolonged fires or damage to infrastructure can alter the behavior of the reservoir and make some of the oil unrecoverable.
- Slow and costly repairs. It is not enough to simply extinguish a fire. Drilling, wellheads, pipelines, pumping stations, and control systems must be rebuilt. Depending on the damage, recovery can take from weeks to several years.
- Massive loss of revenue. Oil and gas represent a very significant portion of Russian export revenues and a substantial fraction of state budget income. A sustained drop in production would reduce the capacity to finance public spending, including the war effort.
-Problems for domestic industry. Russia also consumes millions of barrels daily. If production were to fall sharply, there would be less raw material for refineries, and domestic supply restrictions could arise.
-Environmental damage. Large well fires generate enormous emissions, soil and water pollution, and can take months to extinguish.
But...if there are no refineries to which to send the crude oil, well closures will be inevitable.
✍1
Never before have so many Americans been outside the labor force:
The number of Americans who are not in the labor force rose by +832,000 in June, to 105.8 million, an all-time high.
These are people who are neither employed nor actively looking for work.
This is now 2.2 million above the 2020 pandemic peak, when the global economy was shut down.
So far in 2026, 2.5 million Americans have exited the labor force.
By comparison, 68.7 million Americans were not in the labor force at the beginning of this century.
As a % of the population aged 16+, this figure is up to 38.5%, the highest since the 1970s, excluding the pandemic period.
The US job market is weak under the surface.
The number of Americans who are not in the labor force rose by +832,000 in June, to 105.8 million, an all-time high.
These are people who are neither employed nor actively looking for work.
This is now 2.2 million above the 2020 pandemic peak, when the global economy was shut down.
So far in 2026, 2.5 million Americans have exited the labor force.
By comparison, 68.7 million Americans were not in the labor force at the beginning of this century.
As a % of the population aged 16+, this figure is up to 38.5%, the highest since the 1970s, excluding the pandemic period.
The US job market is weak under the surface.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
📉 The Russian stock market suffered its longest decline since 1997. The Moscow Exchange Index, which includes the shares of 46 of Russia's largest companies, fell 8.72% and fell to 1956.4 points—its lowest since October 2022. The 18-week streak of declines…
On average, stocks in the Moscow Exchange index have fallen by 60% from their historical highs. Currently, all securities are in the red.
🔥1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Russian oligarchs are massively moving capital out of the country Kremlin-linked billionaires understand perfectly well that Russia under Putin’s “wise” leadership is heading to the bottom like the Titanic. This process can no longer be stopped. Oligarchs…
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As bankruptcies spike, Russian billionaires are moving money out of Russia because they fear economic and banking collapse.
A bank run seems near.💸📉💥
A bank run seems near.💸📉💥
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Live feed of the KOSPI open
⚠️WHAT A CHART:
The 3x leveraged long South Korea ETF, $KORU, listed in the US is down -71% since its June peak.
This decline has taken place in a matter of 7 weeks.
This also erases two-thirds of its year-to-date gains.
This comes as the KOSPI index has declined for 4 weeks straight, falling -25%, and entering a bear market.
Nothing ever goes up in a straight line.
The 3x leveraged long South Korea ETF, $KORU, listed in the US is down -71% since its June peak.
This decline has taken place in a matter of 7 weeks.
This also erases two-thirds of its year-to-date gains.
This comes as the KOSPI index has declined for 4 weeks straight, falling -25%, and entering a bear market.
Nothing ever goes up in a straight line.
💯1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🚨: South Korea 1.2 Million Retail Traders received margin calls this week, which is 3.4% of South Korea's entire adult population 🤯👀 Dear God
‼️SOUTH KOREA'S LEVERAGED TRADERS ARE DEEP IN THE RED:
Korean retail investors saw ~1.2 million of their trading accounts trigger margin calls, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts ultimately forcibly liquidated by brokers.
Korean retail investors saw ~1.2 million of their trading accounts trigger margin calls, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts ultimately forcibly liquidated by brokers.
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🇪🇺 The EU is preparing a banking union to compete with the US.
🔸 The reform could unlock around €230bn in liquid assets.
🔸 The EU would reduce national barriers to cross-border bank mergers.
🔸 European banking groups could manage capital and liquidity across the Single Market instead of duplicating requirements in every country.
The EU needs deeper financial markets to finance innovation and close the competitiveness gap.
🔸 The reform could unlock around €230bn in liquid assets.
🔸 The EU would reduce national barriers to cross-border bank mergers.
🔸 European banking groups could manage capital and liquidity across the Single Market instead of duplicating requirements in every country.
The EU needs deeper financial markets to finance innovation and close the competitiveness gap.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Another rugpull brewing...
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🚨🚨A new Matrix attack🚨🚨
The moment Andrew Tate’s body guard realizes that this was a U.S. Marshall. The body guard needed also to be arrested because of his weird hitler mustache 🤣
The moment Andrew Tate’s body guard realizes that this was a U.S. Marshall. The body guard needed also to be arrested because of his weird hitler mustache 🤣
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For Goldman the central banks do not buy gold for décor.
They buy it when trust in currency cracks.
1971: Nixon closes the gold window and central banks scramble to rebuild reserves
2008: the financial crisis triggers the first net buying year in 2 decades
2014: Russia doubles its gold reserves after Crimea sanctions hit
2022: central banks buy over 1,000 tonnes in a single year for the first time on record
Goldman clocks 81 tonnes of central bank gold buying in May, China as the largest buyer.
The bank pencils in $4,900 gold by the end of 2026.
They buy it when trust in currency cracks.
1971: Nixon closes the gold window and central banks scramble to rebuild reserves
2008: the financial crisis triggers the first net buying year in 2 decades
2014: Russia doubles its gold reserves after Crimea sanctions hit
2022: central banks buy over 1,000 tonnes in a single year for the first time on record
Goldman clocks 81 tonnes of central bank gold buying in May, China as the largest buyer.
The bank pencils in $4,900 gold by the end of 2026.
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