The IMF just measured this war against every major oil disruption in modern history. It is now the largest.

Every crisis eventually shows up in the barrels, whether or not the price reflects it yet.

Russia's war in Ukraine, barely 0.1 billion barrels lost
The Iraq war, 0.4 billion
The 1973 oil shock, 0.5 billion
The Iranian revolution, 0.7 billion
The Gulf War, 1.5 billion
This war, 2.3 billion and still falling

Crude prices do not fully reflect this yet, per the IMF's own words, because demand destruction, non Gulf production, and inventory draws absorbed it.

Those buffers are smaller now.

🇺🇸The US just slapped a 25% tariff on 🇧🇷Brazilian imports starting July 22.

🚨Oil and gas energy products are specifically exempted.

Coffee, beef, oranges, and aerospace parts got carved out too.

But energy is the one that matters for this feed.

Even in a trade war picking fights with a country the US already runs a surplus against, energy supply chains are the 1 thing Washington will not touch.

That is consistent with every other move covered this month. Energy security outranks trade politics every time.

135 million barrels of Russian crude are stuck at sea with nowhere to go.

Ukrainian strikes knocked out about a third of Russian refining capacity, down to 3.91 million bpd, the lowest since 2005

Forced to export instead of refine, Russia shipped 8.93 million bpd in June, still 830,000 bpd below its OPEC+ quota

Export hubs are gridlocked: Sokol and Sakhalin cargoes face week-long transfer delays, ESPO crude piling up near Kozmino

1.9 million bpd shows as "unknown destination" in tanker tracking, no disclosed buyer while still in transit
Export volumes hit a 4-year high.

Weekly revenue still fell $200 million.

Volume and value have decoupled.

🚨The Houthis are preparing to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the same playbook Iran already ran on Hormuz.

Bab el-Mandeb carries roughly 9% of global crude and 8% of global LNG flow, per the chokepoints table from the last piece.

Nothing has happened yet.

Per the reporting, Houthis are waiting for the moment that maximizes pressure on the US and its allies.

2 major chokepoints closing in the same window would be a different order of disruption than anything priced so far.