๐จ๐ญ Global One SI - Prompt
SpaceX $SPCX has fallen to $137 after-hours, only $2 above its historic IPO price of $135 per share. Since trading began at $150 per share, ever single retail investor is now underwater on the stock.
SpaceX $SPCX is meant to separate retail investors from their money, warns former Fidelity Fund Manager George Noble
๐จ๐ญ Global One SI - Prompt
SpaceX $SPCX is meant to separate retail investors from their money, warns former Fidelity Fund Manager George Noble
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The largest IPO in history is also shaping up to be the largest exit liquidity operation in history
SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today's price are about to start selling their shares to you.
Let me walk you through why this IPO is built to separate retail investors from their money:
SpaceX has NEVER turned a profit and lost close to $5 billion last year.
At the offering you were paying more than 90x revenue and at the peak the market briefly valued it near 140x.
30 years ago the head of Sun Microsystems explained in detail why paying even 10x revenue almost always ends in tears, and he was right.
But listen closely, because the valuation is not even the real story.
The scarcity is what CREATED this valuation in the first place, and the calendar that kills the scarcity is what kills the price.
Less than 5% of SpaceX shares were actually available to trade at the IPO. Then the index committees REWROTE their own rules to fast track the stock into the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after listing, which forced every passive fund and index ETF in the country to buy at the exact moment the float was at its tightest. The Nasdaq inclusion alone forced an estimated $4.3 billion of buying, and the Russell reweighting added roughly $3 billion more.
The supply was minuscule and the buying was mandatory. That's a manufactured squeeze, and it is why the stock went above $225 in its first week.
Now watch what happens next, because this is the part they ain't explaining to you:
The lockup was staggered on purpose, and the entire schedule is sitting in the prospectus for anyone who bothers to read it.
In early August, right after Q2 earnings, 20% of the locked shares come free. Another 10% unlocks early if the stock trades 30% above the $135 IPO price going into the report.
Then tranches of 7% hit the market at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after the IPO, which means fresh insider supply lands roughly every 2 to 3 weeks from late August through late October.
Q3 earnings triggers the single biggest release of all, another 28%, roughly 1.3 billion shares. On December 8 the 180 day lockup expires entirely. And on June 12, 2027 comes the final wave, when Musk's own 6.4 billion shares, 42% of the whole company, become sellable for the first time.
Add it all up and insiders could be free to sell as much as 44% of the company by early September, which would balloon the tradable float by roughly 900%.
All of that supply lands on a stock the company deliberately packed with retail, because SpaceX reserved close to 30% of the offering for individual investors vs the usual 10%.
This deal created over 4,400 paper millionaires inside the company. You think none of them are looking to cash out?
Early holders are already loading up on puts to lock in what they have.
First they keep the float tiny. Then they let the index rules force the world to buy at the top. Then they release a flood of insider stock into a crowd of retail buyers who were handed the shares up high.
When the price finally breaks the offering level, the people who got in years ago at pennies on today's dollar will hit the bid, and the exit liquidity is your retirement account.
And what are you actually left holding? Strip away the science fiction and the only business inside SpaceX that reliably earns money is Starlink, which produced $1.2 billion of operating income last quarter. A wonderful business worth hundreds of billions on its best day. NOT $2 trillion.
Serious fair value work lands around $30 a share.
Nobody has been a bigger bear on this deal than me. I called it out the moment it started trading, and it is already playing out on schedule as the shares have given back the entire squeeze and slipped below their opening print.
I was Peter Lynch's auto analyst back in 1981 and I have watched every disaster since, and I am telling you this is one of the great wealth transfers of my lifetime packed into a fancy narrative.
SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today's price are about to start selling their shares to you.
Let me walk you through why this IPO is built to separate retail investors from their money:
SpaceX has NEVER turned a profit and lost close to $5 billion last year.
At the offering you were paying more than 90x revenue and at the peak the market briefly valued it near 140x.
30 years ago the head of Sun Microsystems explained in detail why paying even 10x revenue almost always ends in tears, and he was right.
But listen closely, because the valuation is not even the real story.
The scarcity is what CREATED this valuation in the first place, and the calendar that kills the scarcity is what kills the price.
Less than 5% of SpaceX shares were actually available to trade at the IPO. Then the index committees REWROTE their own rules to fast track the stock into the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after listing, which forced every passive fund and index ETF in the country to buy at the exact moment the float was at its tightest. The Nasdaq inclusion alone forced an estimated $4.3 billion of buying, and the Russell reweighting added roughly $3 billion more.
The supply was minuscule and the buying was mandatory. That's a manufactured squeeze, and it is why the stock went above $225 in its first week.
Now watch what happens next, because this is the part they ain't explaining to you:
The lockup was staggered on purpose, and the entire schedule is sitting in the prospectus for anyone who bothers to read it.
In early August, right after Q2 earnings, 20% of the locked shares come free. Another 10% unlocks early if the stock trades 30% above the $135 IPO price going into the report.
Then tranches of 7% hit the market at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after the IPO, which means fresh insider supply lands roughly every 2 to 3 weeks from late August through late October.
Q3 earnings triggers the single biggest release of all, another 28%, roughly 1.3 billion shares. On December 8 the 180 day lockup expires entirely. And on June 12, 2027 comes the final wave, when Musk's own 6.4 billion shares, 42% of the whole company, become sellable for the first time.
Add it all up and insiders could be free to sell as much as 44% of the company by early September, which would balloon the tradable float by roughly 900%.
All of that supply lands on a stock the company deliberately packed with retail, because SpaceX reserved close to 30% of the offering for individual investors vs the usual 10%.
This deal created over 4,400 paper millionaires inside the company. You think none of them are looking to cash out?
Early holders are already loading up on puts to lock in what they have.
First they keep the float tiny. Then they let the index rules force the world to buy at the top. Then they release a flood of insider stock into a crowd of retail buyers who were handed the shares up high.
When the price finally breaks the offering level, the people who got in years ago at pennies on today's dollar will hit the bid, and the exit liquidity is your retirement account.
And what are you actually left holding? Strip away the science fiction and the only business inside SpaceX that reliably earns money is Starlink, which produced $1.2 billion of operating income last quarter. A wonderful business worth hundreds of billions on its best day. NOT $2 trillion.
Serious fair value work lands around $30 a share.
Nobody has been a bigger bear on this deal than me. I called it out the moment it started trading, and it is already playing out on schedule as the shares have given back the entire squeeze and slipped below their opening print.
I was Peter Lynch's auto analyst back in 1981 and I have watched every disaster since, and I am telling you this is one of the great wealth transfers of my lifetime packed into a fancy narrative.
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๐จ๐ญ Global One SI - Prompt
The largest IPO in history is also shaping up to be the largest exit liquidity operation in history SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today's price are about to start selling their shares to you.โฆ
Tesla was the biggest misallocation of capital in the history of stock markets. SpaceX may have just surpassed it.
SPCX goes straight onto my short list, and the beauty of this setup is that the catalyst is not a guess or something, it is literally a PUBLISHED CALENDAR.
This is the most grossly overpriced stock at scale that I have ever seen.
SPCX goes straight onto my short list, and the beauty of this setup is that the catalyst is not a guess or something, it is literally a PUBLISHED CALENDAR.
This is the most grossly overpriced stock at scale that I have ever seen.
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๐จ๐ญ Global One SI - Prompt
Oracle $ORCL fell 6.5% today and is about to cross the critical 60 month support level as concern over AI data center spending continues to worsen. If the selloff continues, this will be the first time it has broken this trendline since August 2001.
Oracle $ORCL Free Cash Flow has plummeted to its lowest level in history ๐จ๐จ
๐จ๐ญ Global One SI - Prompt
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The biggest lesson of the AI era: never get comfortable.
On June 2nd, IBM, $IBM, was up +13% for the year and trading at its highest level on record.
Today, just 42 days later, $IBM fell -25% posting its biggest daily decline since 1968.
The stock is now down -35% in 42 days erasing over -$100 billion in market cap.
AI is rapidly transforming the global economy.
Adapt or be left behind.
On June 2nd, IBM, $IBM, was up +13% for the year and trading at its highest level on record.
Today, just 42 days later, $IBM fell -25% posting its biggest daily decline since 1968.
The stock is now down -35% in 42 days erasing over -$100 billion in market cap.
AI is rapidly transforming the global economy.
Adapt or be left behind.
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๐จ๐ญ Global One SI - Prompt
Hit me with the harshest reality truth.
โThe hardest part of every journey is taking responsibility for where you are.โ
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#USTreasury is committed to disrupting and degrading Iranโs illicit financial activities, including its abuse of digital assets. Today, Treasuryโs Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned multiple wallets tied to the Central Bank of Iran, resulting in the freeze of over $130 million.
We will continue to aggressively follow the money and deny the Iranian regime access to the proceeds of its illicit revenue schemes.
We will continue to aggressively follow the money and deny the Iranian regime access to the proceeds of its illicit revenue schemes.
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๐จ๐ญ Global One SI - Prompt
#USTreasury is committed to disrupting and degrading Iranโs illicit financial activities, including its abuse of digital assets. Today, Treasuryโs Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned multiple wallets tied to the Central Bank of Iran, resulting inโฆ
The last great war was not decided by tanks or battleships. It was decided by attacks on the industrial systems, refineries, tankers....
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๐จ NOW: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announces there is $1 TRILLION in confirmed gold at Fort Knox โ the gold is still there
Q: Have you visited Fort Knox?
BESSENT: I am happy to say, all gold is present and accounted for! The US has the LARGEST pile of gold in the world, over $1 trillion. ๐บ๐ธ
Q: Have you visited Fort Knox?
BESSENT: I am happy to say, all gold is present and accounted for! The US has the LARGEST pile of gold in the world, over $1 trillion. ๐บ๐ธ
The US Treasury posted a $120 billion deficit in June, a sharp deterioration from a $27 billion surplus in June 2025.
This comes as government receipts dropped -$31 billion YoY, to $496 billion.
The decline was largely driven by a surge in tariff refund payments after the Supreme Court ruled the tariff increases illegal, resulting in a -$26 billion net decline in customs duty receipts.
At the same time, outlays surged +$117 billion YoY, to $616 billion.
In the first 9 months of FY2026, the US deficit rose +$29 billion YoY, to $1.37 trillion, the 3rd-highest deficit at this point in the fiscal year in history.
Over the same period, net interest expense rose +$78 billion YoY, to $827 billion, on track for the highest annual net interest expense on record.
The US deficit crisis is accelerating.
This comes as government receipts dropped -$31 billion YoY, to $496 billion.
The decline was largely driven by a surge in tariff refund payments after the Supreme Court ruled the tariff increases illegal, resulting in a -$26 billion net decline in customs duty receipts.
At the same time, outlays surged +$117 billion YoY, to $616 billion.
In the first 9 months of FY2026, the US deficit rose +$29 billion YoY, to $1.37 trillion, the 3rd-highest deficit at this point in the fiscal year in history.
Over the same period, net interest expense rose +$78 billion YoY, to $827 billion, on track for the highest annual net interest expense on record.
The US deficit crisis is accelerating.
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Forwarded from ๐ขWTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading ๐
Oil refiners are making historic profits.
The 3-2-1 WTI refining margin is up to a record $59 per barrel.
This is a key metric of how much profit refiners generate from turning crude oil into fuels like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Refining margins have nearly tripled since the start of 2026.
By comparison, this metric average ~$10 per barrel between 1985 and 2021 and never exceeded $30 per barrel during the 2004-2008 refining boom.
The surge reflects a severe shortage of global refining capacity, as the Iran War, attacks on Russian refineries, and lower fuel exports have tightened supply.
As a result, an estimated ~10% of global refining capacity, or ~8 million barrels per day, is offline, keeping gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices elevated even with crude oil trading ~$40 per barrel below its March high.
World refiners are cashing in on a tightening oil market.
The 3-2-1 WTI refining margin is up to a record $59 per barrel.
This is a key metric of how much profit refiners generate from turning crude oil into fuels like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Refining margins have nearly tripled since the start of 2026.
By comparison, this metric average ~$10 per barrel between 1985 and 2021 and never exceeded $30 per barrel during the 2004-2008 refining boom.
The surge reflects a severe shortage of global refining capacity, as the Iran War, attacks on Russian refineries, and lower fuel exports have tightened supply.
As a result, an estimated ~10% of global refining capacity, or ~8 million barrels per day, is offline, keeping gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices elevated even with crude oil trading ~$40 per barrel below its March high.
World refiners are cashing in on a tightening oil market.
๐จ๐ญ Global One SI - Prompt
THE DOLLAR IS FAKE.
If the dollar's fake, what are we supposed to make of all those Monopoly games?
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๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท Trump really won't want people seeing these images.
Iran appears to have hit what is believed to be a fighter jet maintenance facility at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, one of America's most important CENTCOM hubs in the Middle East.
And Tehran's message couldn't be more blunt: you can bomb Iran as hard as you want, but your bases across the region are still within our reach.
Iran appears to have hit what is believed to be a fighter jet maintenance facility at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, one of America's most important CENTCOM hubs in the Middle East.
And Tehran's message couldn't be more blunt: you can bomb Iran as hard as you want, but your bases across the region are still within our reach.
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Forwarded from ๐ขWTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading ๐
2 tankers carrying Iranian crude just switched their destination signals to Karachi.
The Rani and the Amil, a combined 1 million barrels, per Bloomberg ship tracking.
Both vessels were already outside the Persian Gulf when the blockade came back into force.
This is not a normal port change.
It looks like 2 ships looking for somewhere safe to sit while the blockade sorts itself out.
That is 1 million barrels now stranded in limbo, not sold and not headed home.
The Rani and the Amil, a combined 1 million barrels, per Bloomberg ship tracking.
Both vessels were already outside the Persian Gulf when the blockade came back into force.
This is not a normal port change.
It looks like 2 ships looking for somewhere safe to sit while the blockade sorts itself out.
That is 1 million barrels now stranded in limbo, not sold and not headed home.
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"Don't let social media fool you, the average millionaire is 50+ not 19"
But who wants to be average
But who wants to be average
๐จ๐ญ Global One SI - Prompt
"Don't let social media fool you, the average millionaire is 50+ not 19" But who wants to be average
Someone in their 20s who is:
- Delusionally optimistic
- Obsessed with their goals
- Moving with real urgency
- Productive, not just busy
- Seeing patterns early
That person is going to end up somewhere almost nobody else reaches. not because of luck. because they refused to move at the speed everyone told them was reasonable.
- Delusionally optimistic
- Obsessed with their goals
- Moving with real urgency
- Productive, not just busy
- Seeing patterns early
That person is going to end up somewhere almost nobody else reaches. not because of luck. because they refused to move at the speed everyone told them was reasonable.
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