Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
Iranian missiles hit 2 UAE tankers, the Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, in Omani waters. 1 Indian crew member killed, 8 wounded, per the UAE Ministry of Defence.
The UAE is now a direct target, not just a spectator.
Oman's territorial waters are part of the conflict zone.
The IRGC accuses the US of inciting an "illegal route," while the UAE says it retains its full right to respond.
The UAE is now a direct target, not just a spectator.
Oman's territorial waters are part of the conflict zone.
The IRGC accuses the US of inciting an "illegal route," while the UAE says it retains its full right to respond.
🔥1
China's June trade surplus just hit 125.6 billion dollars, the second highest monthly surplus any country has ever recorded.
Exports up 27% year on year.
Imports up 36%, per Michael Pettis's read of the data.
That keeps the full year 2026 surplus on pace to break 1 trillion dollars again, confirming the trajectory from my last piece.
The weapon just got a fresh reading.
Exports up 27% year on year.
Imports up 36%, per Michael Pettis's read of the data.
That keeps the full year 2026 surplus on pace to break 1 trillion dollars again, confirming the trajectory from my last piece.
The weapon just got a fresh reading.
🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
Russia's fuel crisis just reached a third dimension. First the gas stations ran dry⛽️ Then the tankers in the Sea of Azov stopped moving🚢 Now the runways are next... Refueling is limited or gone in Makhachkala, Krasnodar, Astrakhan, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg…
Russian refinery runs just crashed to 3.8 million barrels a day in June.
Down 1.5 million from where 2026 started.
2023, 2024, and 2025 all bounced around 5.0 to 5.7 million barrels a day at this point in the year.
2026 fell off a cliff in April and never stopped.
Ukrainian drone strikes did more damage to Russian refining capacity in months than sanctions did in years.
That is why crack spreads are surging everywhere else.
Less Russian product on the market tightens refined fuel supply globally.
Down 1.5 million from where 2026 started.
2023, 2024, and 2025 all bounced around 5.0 to 5.7 million barrels a day at this point in the year.
2026 fell off a cliff in April and never stopped.
Ukrainian drone strikes did more damage to Russian refining capacity in months than sanctions did in years.
That is why crack spreads are surging everywhere else.
Less Russian product on the market tightens refined fuel supply globally.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Ukraine's drone units claim 76 Russian vessels hit in the Azov and Black Seas in just 5 days. Claimed, per Ukrainian UAV units: 🚨28 more vessels engaged on the night of July 11 alone Total of 76 vessels hit between July 6 and July 11 Source: the units…
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
11 more Russian vessels hit in the Sea of Azov overnight. 5 tankers, 5 dry cargo ships, 1 tug.
That brings the running total to 116 vessels struck.
That brings the running total to 116 vessels struck.
🔥1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Annual processing capacity: roughly 10 million tons.
This is not a border region anymore. Ukrainian drones are now reaching deep into Russia's industrial interior, further than most people think this capability extends.
The refinery campaign has no effective safe zone left.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🔥1
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🇨🇳China's June crude imports: 7.15 million barrels a day.
Every other June in the last 5 years:
12.19 in 2025,
11.35 in 2024,
12.72 in 2023,
8.75 in 2022,
9.81 in 2021.
June 2026 is the lowest print in this entire window, well below even the 2022 low.
Beijing is not buying at war prices. It is running down the 1.1 billion barrel stockpile instead.
Every other June in the last 5 years:
12.19 in 2025,
11.35 in 2024,
12.72 in 2023,
8.75 in 2022,
9.81 in 2021.
June 2026 is the lowest print in this entire window, well below even the 2022 low.
Beijing is not buying at war prices. It is running down the 1.1 billion barrel stockpile instead.
👀1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
SpaceX $SPCX has fallen to $137 after-hours, only $2 above its historic IPO price of $135 per share. Since trading began at $150 per share, ever single retail investor is now underwater on the stock.
Every IPO in history follows the same script: SpaceX won't be different
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The South Korean KOSPI Index composed of 54% SK Hynix and Samsung, has now fallen to a critical support level. If broken, there's nothing stopping the market to continue gapping down. This comes after analysts warned of possible forced-selling to cover $19B…
The South Korean KOSPI index has officially entered a bear market after falling 20% from the peak.
Memory manufacturers SK Hynix and Samsung accounted for 54% of the index at the peak.
Memory manufacturers SK Hynix and Samsung accounted for 54% of the index at the peak.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Uh oh... The "Chief Investment Strategists" were all on CNBC today telling you to buy memory & chip stocks like $MU, $SNDK and $NVDA
Advising you to "ignore the volatility" and "hold Micron for the intermediate to long-term."
Take a guess what that means...😏
Advising you to "ignore the volatility" and "hold Micron for the intermediate to long-term."
Take a guess what that means...😏
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Uh oh... The "Chief Investment Strategists" were all on CNBC today telling you to buy memory & chip stocks like $MU, $SNDK and $NVDA Advising you to "ignore the volatility" and "hold Micron for the intermediate to long-term." Take a guess what that means...😏
They need some dumb money to sell to.
✍1
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
POV: U.S and Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz l about to shoot at each other the realizing the stock market just opened
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Nasdaq $NDX continues to find support on the trendline as it approaches the July 20th parabolic where it begins going backward in time. We're coming to the end of a market cycle that has been driven by Federal Reserve quantitative easing money printing 25…
Looks like the entire thing is about to pop.
Memory manufacturers have already broken the parabolics and rolled over.
Memory manufacturers have already broken the parabolics and rolled over.
🔥1👌1
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
Strikes across Iran, into Jordan, near Oman, and along the entire Hormuz corridor.
This is the instability actually moving the price.
Not a headline.
A map with strikes on both sides spanning 5 countries.
Brent does not need a new catalyst to keep rising. It just needs this map to stay this crowded.
This is the instability actually moving the price.
Not a headline.
A map with strikes on both sides spanning 5 countries.
Brent does not need a new catalyst to keep rising. It just needs this map to stay this crowded.
🔥1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
How to never hit your usage limits with GPT-5.6 Sol
The Anthropic team recently released a comprehensive guide to getting started with loop engineering.
99% of people missed it.
I translated the entire guide to plain English (send this to your Claude Code agents)
99% of people missed it.
I translated the entire guide to plain English (send this to your Claude Code agents)
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The point of making money is not so you can buy everything. the point of making money is so that no one can buy you. real wealth is not about flexing with material things, it is about freedom. it is about having the power to say no, to walk away, to live life…
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
There is freedom in being the bad guy.
You're uncaged.
You're real.
You let your nuts hang.
Some love you, some hate you. who cares?
At least you're living the full experience instead of shrinking yourself to avoid being disliked by nobodies.
Better to be feared and remembered than liked and forgotten.
You're uncaged.
You're real.
You let your nuts hang.
Some love you, some hate you. who cares?
At least you're living the full experience instead of shrinking yourself to avoid being disliked by nobodies.
Better to be feared and remembered than liked and forgotten.
🗿1
In 6 months, we'll likely have a Fable 5 quality model at a third of the cost.
In another ~12 months, Opus 4.8 intelligence will probably be available to run locally on your own machine.
Think about what that actually means:
The models that cost $15 per million output tokens today will soon cost only $5.
Plus, the intelligence that currently requires Anthropic's infrastructure will fit on a consumer laptop.
This isn't just my speculation; it's the current AI cost and progression curve playing out in real time.
GPT-3 launched in 2020 at $60 per million tokens. The same capability costs fractions of a cent today (Llama 3 runs locally on a MacBook and matches GPT-3.5 performance from two years ago).
Every 12 months, the same intelligence gets roughly 3x cheaper.
And every 18 to 24 months, the latest frontier models become available locally.
This right here is what gets me most excited about the future of AI.
And AI doomers have the nerve to say progression has slowed lol.
In another ~12 months, Opus 4.8 intelligence will probably be available to run locally on your own machine.
Think about what that actually means:
The models that cost $15 per million output tokens today will soon cost only $5.
Plus, the intelligence that currently requires Anthropic's infrastructure will fit on a consumer laptop.
This isn't just my speculation; it's the current AI cost and progression curve playing out in real time.
GPT-3 launched in 2020 at $60 per million tokens. The same capability costs fractions of a cent today (Llama 3 runs locally on a MacBook and matches GPT-3.5 performance from two years ago).
Every 12 months, the same intelligence gets roughly 3x cheaper.
And every 18 to 24 months, the latest frontier models become available locally.
This right here is what gets me most excited about the future of AI.
And AI doomers have the nerve to say progression has slowed lol.
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Howard Lutnick's family is set to make BILLIONS when the Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs. Cantor Fitzgerald, a "financial services" firm run by his two sons has been quietly buying up the rights to tariff refunds for 20-30¢ on the dollar since…
🇺🇸 US issues $81,000,000,000 in refunds after Supreme Court ruled President Trump's tariffs illegal.
💯1🍾1
$IBM is down -20% in premarket after Q2 revenue missed estimates.
- Preliminary Q2 revenue: $17.2 billion, vs $17.86 billion expected
- Infrastructure revenue fell 7%, driven by weak mainframe Z system sales
- Red Hat grew 11%, Distributed Infrastructure grew 37%
CEO Arvind Krishna said part of the miss came from clients shifting spending toward servers, storage, and memory ahead of expected supply constraints later this year.
- Preliminary Q2 revenue: $17.2 billion, vs $17.86 billion expected
- Infrastructure revenue fell 7%, driven by weak mainframe Z system sales
- Red Hat grew 11%, Distributed Infrastructure grew 37%
CEO Arvind Krishna said part of the miss came from clients shifting spending toward servers, storage, and memory ahead of expected supply constraints later this year.