China's newest rocket, the Long March 10B, just achieved a breakthrough recovery.

Its fuel is high purity methane made from LNG.

Even China's frontier industry now runs on the resource it does not produce enough of.

Gas demand does not shrink as an economy advances. It compounds.

America controls that input.

80% of America's rare earth supply comes from 1 country.

China.

That is real leverage.

But rare earths only bite a handful of industries.

LNG heats entire economies.

China has the rare earths.
America has the LNG.

Only 1 of those is fungible.

Trump says the ceasefire is over.

Iran and Oman are drafting a Hormuz passage deal anyway.

The contradiction: after 3 Qatari and Saudi tankers were hit and the US struck Iranian sites (Iran hit back at US military sites in Gulf states), Trump posted "the Cease Fire is OVER!" Yet Iran, the US, Qatar and Pakistan agreed to keep negotiating this weekend.

The corridor proposal: Oman's draft plan splits the strait. Free navigation through the southern corridor in Omani waters, no tolls. Vessels in the northern corridor through Iranian waters need Iran's prior approval, still no tolls, per CNN.

Iran's framing: FM Araqchi says the US violated the ceasefire first by revoking Iran's crude sale license right after the tanker attacks. Iran hasn't claimed responsibility for those attacks; US officials say Tehran called them an "errant part of their system."

The wildcard: Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, publicly pledged vengeance for his predecessor's killing this week. Trump says he's ordered the military to prep "thousands of missiles" if Iran tries to assassinate him, after reports of an assassination plot.

About a fifth of the world's oil transited Hormuz before the war. The corridor deal, the ceasefire status, and the vengeance pledge all decide whether that fifth comes back or stays disrupted.

Per ISW,Iran's negotiators and its military aren't fighting each other.

They're playing 2 roles in the same strategy.

1️⃣ Pragmatic negotiators are trying to preserve talks and avoid a full-scale war with the US

2️⃣ IRGC officers close to the supreme leader approved using force to assert control over Hormuz

3️⃣ This is a split over tactics, not strategic ends, both factions agree the strait is Iran's core leverage

4️⃣ Blaming an "errant faction" for attacks lets the regime keep talking and chase economic benefits while the IRGC keeps enforcing control on the water

The US wants a full return to pre-war rules.
Iran won't concede that.... for how long?

🚨BREAKING: Iran's IRGC has announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. No vessels on any lane, "until the end of US interventions".

A warning shot was already fired at a ship that tried to deviate from Iran's approved route.

This does not open Monday priced the way it closed Friday....