🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Let this actually sink in: The most powerful closed models on earth now require federal sign-off, one user at a time. AI might've just hit its first real wall for progression. Meanwhile, open-source models (like GLM-5.2 and Sakana Fugu): → Can't be…
Here’s a fun comparison between GLM 5.2 and Opus 4.8 on a one-shot reproduction of the SDPO paper
This is a hard task: the model must resolve messy verl issues and then run ablations to completion and confirm the paper’s claims.
- GLM 5.2 costs $6.21 while Opus 4.8 cost us $46.35
- Both models spent a bulk of their tokens resolving initial verl issues. GLM 5.2 attempted 14 failed runs before first success while Opus 4.8 attempted 9 runs.
- GLM 5.2 surprisingly took 2.65M tokens (excl re-reads) compared to 4.53M tokens for Opus 4.8
This is a hard task: the model must resolve messy verl issues and then run ablations to completion and confirm the paper’s claims.
- GLM 5.2 costs $6.21 while Opus 4.8 cost us $46.35
- Both models spent a bulk of their tokens resolving initial verl issues. GLM 5.2 attempted 14 failed runs before first success while Opus 4.8 attempted 9 runs.
- GLM 5.2 surprisingly took 2.65M tokens (excl re-reads) compared to 4.53M tokens for Opus 4.8
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The future of AI is undoubtedly open-sourced.
For 99% of people, the top open-weight models can already handle all your daily needs.
Imo, the best thing you can do right now is run a "barbell" approach for your AI usage:
Intial 10% and planning phase: Use frontier intelligence (Opus/GPT)
Gruntwork and the middle 80%: Switch to open-weight model (GLM, Kimi)
Final 10% and review: Switch back to froniter intelligence to verify
Best of both worlds - cost efficiency + intelligence.
For 99% of people, the top open-weight models can already handle all your daily needs.
Imo, the best thing you can do right now is run a "barbell" approach for your AI usage:
Intial 10% and planning phase: Use frontier intelligence (Opus/GPT)
Gruntwork and the middle 80%: Switch to open-weight model (GLM, Kimi)
Final 10% and review: Switch back to froniter intelligence to verify
Best of both worlds - cost efficiency + intelligence.
✍1
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How it feels to argue in your head while having two different mindsets
China Robotics Startup Map 2026
➤ China Robotics:
• 2000+ robotics startups
➝ 50+ humanoid robot companies
➝ $13B+ funding from 2015 to 2025
‣ Humanoid robots
➝ Unitree
➝ AgiBot
➝ Fourier
➝ EngineAI
‣ Industrial robots
➝ Estun
➝ Efort
➝ Siasun
‣ Service robots
➝ Pudu
➝ Keenon
➝ OrionStar
‣ Core components
➝ Inovance
➝ Han’s Robot
➝ LEADOR
‣ AI and robot software
➝ Megvii
➝ RealAI
➝ DEEP Robotics
‣ Main hubs
➝ Beijing
➝ Shanghai
➝ Shenzhen
➝ Suzhou
➝ Hangzhou
➝ Dongguan
The important part is not only the humanoid body.
China is building the full robotics stack around it.
Hardware.
AI software.
Components.
Factories.
Supply chain.
Capital.
Pilot deployments.
That is where the real robotics race is moving.
➤ China Robotics:
• 2000+ robotics startups
➝ 50+ humanoid robot companies
➝ $13B+ funding from 2015 to 2025
‣ Humanoid robots
➝ Unitree
➝ AgiBot
➝ Fourier
➝ EngineAI
‣ Industrial robots
➝ Estun
➝ Efort
➝ Siasun
‣ Service robots
➝ Pudu
➝ Keenon
➝ OrionStar
‣ Core components
➝ Inovance
➝ Han’s Robot
➝ LEADOR
‣ AI and robot software
➝ Megvii
➝ RealAI
➝ DEEP Robotics
‣ Main hubs
➝ Beijing
➝ Shanghai
➝ Shenzhen
➝ Suzhou
➝ Hangzhou
➝ Dongguan
The important part is not only the humanoid body.
China is building the full robotics stack around it.
Hardware.
AI software.
Components.
Factories.
Supply chain.
Capital.
Pilot deployments.
That is where the real robotics race is moving.
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Pov: The failure of the family arrives at the family dinner
Volkswagen is preparing to cut 15% of its entire global workforce.
VW is now weighing up to 100,000 job cuts on top of a global headcount of 667,164, and shutting four German factories, Hanover, Zwickau, Emden, and Audi's Neckarsulm.
This is the biggest restructuring in the company's 88-year history.
The supervisory board discusses this on July 9. And this is the third escalation in 18 months.
Late 2024: 35,000 jobs.
March 2026: raised to 50,000 after operating profit collapsed 53% to €8.9 billion, the worst result since the 2016 Dieselgate scandal.
Now: 100,000, double that number, with plant closures added on top for the first time in the company's history.
Despite that 44% profit collapse in 2025, VW's executive board still received bonus payouts totaling €13.6 million, with CEO Oliver Blume personally taking home €7.4 million.
The bonuses were tied to cash flow, not profit, so management got paid while the company posted its worst year since Dieselgate.
China is the main reason this is happening.
VW was China's top automaker for years. BYD took that spot in 2024. VW fell to third place in 2025, behind Geely.
Non-Chinese automakers' share of the Chinese EV market collapsed from 57% in 2020 to 32% in 2025. VW's own EV sales inside China fell 44.3% in a single year.
Chininese makers aren't staying in China only. BYD, Chery, SAIC, and Leapmotor doubled their combined European market share through May, expanding directly into VW's home turf in Europe while VW is losing ground in China at the same time.
VW plans to cut planned investment 15% to just over €130 billion over five years, while reportedly considering splitting the core VW brand and parts business into separate entities.
Unions are already promising war.
IG Metall and VW's works council said Friday they'll "do everything in our power to prevent" the cuts, the same union that organized 100,000 workers in warning strikes across Germany in December 2024, shutting down production at multiple plants for hours at a time, over a round of cuts that was half this size.
If that's what 35,000 cuts triggered, a fight over 100,000 jobs and four shuttered factories is likely to be far more disruptive.
VW is now weighing up to 100,000 job cuts on top of a global headcount of 667,164, and shutting four German factories, Hanover, Zwickau, Emden, and Audi's Neckarsulm.
This is the biggest restructuring in the company's 88-year history.
The supervisory board discusses this on July 9. And this is the third escalation in 18 months.
Late 2024: 35,000 jobs.
March 2026: raised to 50,000 after operating profit collapsed 53% to €8.9 billion, the worst result since the 2016 Dieselgate scandal.
Now: 100,000, double that number, with plant closures added on top for the first time in the company's history.
Despite that 44% profit collapse in 2025, VW's executive board still received bonus payouts totaling €13.6 million, with CEO Oliver Blume personally taking home €7.4 million.
The bonuses were tied to cash flow, not profit, so management got paid while the company posted its worst year since Dieselgate.
China is the main reason this is happening.
VW was China's top automaker for years. BYD took that spot in 2024. VW fell to third place in 2025, behind Geely.
Non-Chinese automakers' share of the Chinese EV market collapsed from 57% in 2020 to 32% in 2025. VW's own EV sales inside China fell 44.3% in a single year.
Chininese makers aren't staying in China only. BYD, Chery, SAIC, and Leapmotor doubled their combined European market share through May, expanding directly into VW's home turf in Europe while VW is losing ground in China at the same time.
VW plans to cut planned investment 15% to just over €130 billion over five years, while reportedly considering splitting the core VW brand and parts business into separate entities.
Unions are already promising war.
IG Metall and VW's works council said Friday they'll "do everything in our power to prevent" the cuts, the same union that organized 100,000 workers in warning strikes across Germany in December 2024, shutting down production at multiple plants for hours at a time, over a round of cuts that was half this size.
If that's what 35,000 cuts triggered, a fight over 100,000 jobs and four shuttered factories is likely to be far more disruptive.
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With all the massive compute China has secured lately, why does it feel like they're still just distilling US models?
You'd think with those resources we'd see more foundational models trained entirely from scratch instead of highly optimized derivatives.
What's the actual bottleneck holding them back?
You'd think with those resources we'd see more foundational models trained entirely from scratch instead of highly optimized derivatives.
What's the actual bottleneck holding them back?
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
How to Minimize Resolution Risk in Polymarket Weather Resolution risk is one of the biggest reasons traders lose money on weather markets Even if your temperature forecast was correct, the wrong weather station or unexpected resolution rules can completely…
I tested cloning top weather traders on Polymarket and here's what actually works
most people just copy the biggest PnL wallet and lose money
the difference isn't the wallet. it's how you use the data before you click buy
[ the real problem with blind copying ]
top weather traders like ColdMath and VibeTrader make money because they have specific edges:
- better model timing
- city specialization
- strict sizing rules
- understanding resolution stations
when you copy them blindly you get:
- worse entry prices
- wrong bucket selection
- no idea when they are exiting or hedging
- full exposure to their drawdowns
[ how parity actually helps you clone smarter ]
Parity Terminal shows you exactly what you need to decide:
- current open positions of any wallet
- average entry price on each bucket
- conviction level (how big the position is relative to their bankroll)
- which cities they are focused on right now
historical PnL on that specific city
you don't copy the trade. you copy the context around the trade
[ when to clone and when to stay away ]
clone when:
- the trader has 50+ trades on that city in the last 30 days
- they are entering at a clear mispricing (you can see the edge yourself)
- their sizing is conservative relative to the market
stay away when:
- it's their first or second trade on that city
- they are piling into a crowded bucket after a big move
- you don't understand why they are buying that specific bucket
[ simple workflow I actually use ]
- open any weather market in Parity
- check top 3 wallets by PnL on that city
- look at their average entry and current position size
- only copy if I see the same mispricing they saw + I understand the station risk
- set smaller size than them (usually 30-50%)
this turns copy-trading from gambling into a calculated edge
[ the honest truth ]
copying will never beat building your own model
but if you're going to copy anyway, copying with context beats copying blindly by a mile
the window is open. most people are still doing it wrong
See how top traders are positioned right now 👇
The easiest way to see real-time positions, sizing and conviction of top weather traders is through Parity Terminal: predictparity.com
most people just copy the biggest PnL wallet and lose money
the difference isn't the wallet. it's how you use the data before you click buy
[ the real problem with blind copying ]
top weather traders like ColdMath and VibeTrader make money because they have specific edges:
- better model timing
- city specialization
- strict sizing rules
- understanding resolution stations
when you copy them blindly you get:
- worse entry prices
- wrong bucket selection
- no idea when they are exiting or hedging
- full exposure to their drawdowns
[ how parity actually helps you clone smarter ]
Parity Terminal shows you exactly what you need to decide:
- current open positions of any wallet
- average entry price on each bucket
- conviction level (how big the position is relative to their bankroll)
- which cities they are focused on right now
historical PnL on that specific city
you don't copy the trade. you copy the context around the trade
[ when to clone and when to stay away ]
clone when:
- the trader has 50+ trades on that city in the last 30 days
- they are entering at a clear mispricing (you can see the edge yourself)
- their sizing is conservative relative to the market
stay away when:
- it's their first or second trade on that city
- they are piling into a crowded bucket after a big move
- you don't understand why they are buying that specific bucket
[ simple workflow I actually use ]
- open any weather market in Parity
- check top 3 wallets by PnL on that city
- look at their average entry and current position size
- only copy if I see the same mispricing they saw + I understand the station risk
- set smaller size than them (usually 30-50%)
this turns copy-trading from gambling into a calculated edge
[ the honest truth ]
copying will never beat building your own model
but if you're going to copy anyway, copying with context beats copying blindly by a mile
the window is open. most people are still doing it wrong
See how top traders are positioned right now 👇
The easiest way to see real-time positions, sizing and conviction of top weather traders is through Parity Terminal: predictparity.com
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
How it feels to argue in your head while having two different mindsets
The mind you fail to control will quietly become the force that controls your life.
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Jensen Huang: "No matter what your dreams are, you're going to get punched in the face at some point."
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Jensen Huang: "No matter what your dreams are, you're going to get punched in the face at some point."
The first punch isn't there to stop you.
It's there to separate the people chasing a feeling from the people building a life.
Only one of them keeps moving forward.
It's there to separate the people chasing a feeling from the people building a life.
Only one of them keeps moving forward.
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🛢️ 1 single gold mine produces more than the bottom 3 on this list combined.
America's Nevada complex is in a league of its own.
This ranks the world's 10 largest gold mines by 2025 production, in thousands of ounces.
Nevada Gold Mines towers over everything at 2,595 koz, operated by Barrick.
It was born from a historic 2019 truce between rivals Barrick and Newmont.
That deal merged 10 underground and 12 open-pit operations into one Tier 1 powerhouse.
Second place isn't close.
Uzbekistan's Muruntau produces 1,708 koz, the world's largest open-pit by sheer size.
Russia's Olimpiada takes third at 1,357 koz, with Kazzinc and Grasberg rounding out the heavy hitters.
Notice the geography.
The biggest gold now comes from the US, Uzbekistan, Russia, and Central Asia.
Western majors like Newmont and Agnico Eagle sit lower, at 664 and 693 koz.
With gold near record highs, these mines are printing money, and scale decides who wins most.
The lesson holds across commodities. In mining, the giants don't just compete.... They dominate.
America's Nevada complex is in a league of its own.
This ranks the world's 10 largest gold mines by 2025 production, in thousands of ounces.
Nevada Gold Mines towers over everything at 2,595 koz, operated by Barrick.
It was born from a historic 2019 truce between rivals Barrick and Newmont.
That deal merged 10 underground and 12 open-pit operations into one Tier 1 powerhouse.
Second place isn't close.
Uzbekistan's Muruntau produces 1,708 koz, the world's largest open-pit by sheer size.
Russia's Olimpiada takes third at 1,357 koz, with Kazzinc and Grasberg rounding out the heavy hitters.
Notice the geography.
The biggest gold now comes from the US, Uzbekistan, Russia, and Central Asia.
Western majors like Newmont and Agnico Eagle sit lower, at 664 and 693 koz.
With gold near record highs, these mines are printing money, and scale decides who wins most.
The lesson holds across commodities. In mining, the giants don't just compete.... They dominate.
🛢️ China just slammed the brakes on gold speculation.
Margin requirements have soared to 140%.
This is a short-term warning and a long-term signal.
On June 22, 3 major Chinese banks raised margins on personal precious-metals deferred contracts.
Huaxia Bank lifted its requirement to 120%.
Guangfa Bank went further, from 100% to 140%.
Bank of China followed, raising gold margins from 99.9% to 120%, and silver to nearly 120%.
Higher margins make it far more expensive to trade gold and silver with leverage.
That forces speculators to put up more cash or close positions, cooling the buying frenzy.
In the short term, that's bearish.
Less leverage means less fuel for the rally, and possible selling.
But step back and the signal flips.
Banks tighten margins when a market is running hot.
They're trying to slow a surge, not stop a fall.
That's a sign of demand, not weakness.
Short-term pain, long-term gain.
The forces driving gold higher haven't changed.
Margin requirements have soared to 140%.
This is a short-term warning and a long-term signal.
On June 22, 3 major Chinese banks raised margins on personal precious-metals deferred contracts.
Huaxia Bank lifted its requirement to 120%.
Guangfa Bank went further, from 100% to 140%.
Bank of China followed, raising gold margins from 99.9% to 120%, and silver to nearly 120%.
Higher margins make it far more expensive to trade gold and silver with leverage.
That forces speculators to put up more cash or close positions, cooling the buying frenzy.
In the short term, that's bearish.
Less leverage means less fuel for the rally, and possible selling.
But step back and the signal flips.
Banks tighten margins when a market is running hot.
They're trying to slow a surge, not stop a fall.
That's a sign of demand, not weakness.
Short-term pain, long-term gain.
The forces driving gold higher haven't changed.