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It’s only after we’ve lost everything, that we’re free to do anything.
🗿1
From 1957 to 2020, humanity launched roughly 60 to 120 rockets a year into orbit. For sixty years, the number barely moved.
The Space Race didn't break it. The Shuttle program didn't break it. The ISS didn't break it. Billions in government funding, Cold War urgency, national prestige. None of it pushed the curve past ~120 launches a year.
Then one company figured out how to land a booster and fly it again.
After 2020, the line goes vertical. 321 successful launches last year. A global record. And when you look at the chart, the entire spike is one color. SpaceX.
Russia, which dominated launch cadence for decades, has collapsed to a sliver. The rest of the US launch industry, the one that existed before SpaceX, hasn't grown at all. China is climbing, but from a small base.
Strip away SpaceX and the world is still on the plateau.
Sixty years of flat. Then reusability. Then vertical.
That's the thing about real inflection points. They don't look like gradual improvement. They look like someone broke the chart.
The rest of the industry didn't fall behind because they stopped trying.
They fell behind because the game changed and they were still building disposable rockets.
The Space Race didn't break it. The Shuttle program didn't break it. The ISS didn't break it. Billions in government funding, Cold War urgency, national prestige. None of it pushed the curve past ~120 launches a year.
Then one company figured out how to land a booster and fly it again.
After 2020, the line goes vertical. 321 successful launches last year. A global record. And when you look at the chart, the entire spike is one color. SpaceX.
Russia, which dominated launch cadence for decades, has collapsed to a sliver. The rest of the US launch industry, the one that existed before SpaceX, hasn't grown at all. China is climbing, but from a small base.
Strip away SpaceX and the world is still on the plateau.
Sixty years of flat. Then reusability. Then vertical.
That's the thing about real inflection points. They don't look like gradual improvement. They look like someone broke the chart.
The rest of the industry didn't fall behind because they stopped trying.
They fell behind because the game changed and they were still building disposable rockets.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
President Trump responds to reports that Iran is preparing to impose tolls on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in 60 days. “There will be no tolls in the Hormuz Strait for 60 days during the cease fire period, and there will be no tolls after the 60…
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THE BOSS OF ALL BOSSES!!!😎🇺🇸🔥🔥🔥
Elon looks like he’s losing the AI race right now.
But I’m starting to think he changed the game he’s playing.
Maybe the real plan is not just “build the best model.”
Maybe it’s becoming the biggest distributor of compute on the planet.
xAI, Tesla, X, Optimus, data centers, chips, energy, vehicles, robots.
If compute becomes the new oil, owning the pipes might matter more than winning a chatbot leaderboard.
Cope or real strategy?
But I’m starting to think he changed the game he’s playing.
Maybe the real plan is not just “build the best model.”
Maybe it’s becoming the biggest distributor of compute on the planet.
xAI, Tesla, X, Optimus, data centers, chips, energy, vehicles, robots.
If compute becomes the new oil, owning the pipes might matter more than winning a chatbot leaderboard.
Cope or real strategy?
The real singularity trigger is probably not some dramatic robot moment.
It’s the first AI lab that fully automates AI research itself.
Models designing better models. Agents running experiments. Automated labs testing ideas 24/7. No human bottleneck.
So who gets there first?
OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, xAI, or some insane open source swarm?
It’s the first AI lab that fully automates AI research itself.
Models designing better models. Agents running experiments. Automated labs testing ideas 24/7. No human bottleneck.
So who gets there first?
OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, xAI, or some insane open source swarm?
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The $10-$15 trillion total addressable market for AI, if it is successful, is actually "terrifying".
- The famous "Dean of Valuation", Professor Aswath Damodaran, of NYU Stern School of Business.
The reason: AI as a tool is a much smaller market; AI as a replacement for human-jobs is where the giant market story comes from.
"The best-case scenario for AI, that $10 to $15 trillion market, will happen if ONLY it replaces people.
If AI is a tool, it’s going to be a much smaller market than if AI replaces people. So, the stories we’re telling about $10, $20 or $25 trillion markets are actually terrifying stories for the rest of the world.
Why? Because if that story comes true, half of all white-collar people are going to lose their jobs. And what are they going to do instead? Who’s going to come up with the income to buy the products and services?
If AI works as well as it’s supposed to and replaces people, how do we deal with that as a society? Because people lose their jobs. Not only do you lose your income, you lose your life’s meaning.."
- The famous "Dean of Valuation", Professor Aswath Damodaran, of NYU Stern School of Business.
The reason: AI as a tool is a much smaller market; AI as a replacement for human-jobs is where the giant market story comes from.
"The best-case scenario for AI, that $10 to $15 trillion market, will happen if ONLY it replaces people.
If AI is a tool, it’s going to be a much smaller market than if AI replaces people. So, the stories we’re telling about $10, $20 or $25 trillion markets are actually terrifying stories for the rest of the world.
Why? Because if that story comes true, half of all white-collar people are going to lose their jobs. And what are they going to do instead? Who’s going to come up with the income to buy the products and services?
If AI works as well as it’s supposed to and replaces people, how do we deal with that as a society? Because people lose their jobs. Not only do you lose your income, you lose your life’s meaning.."
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🚢Vessels continued to enter and exit the strait of hormuz....even if Iran claiming it was closing it, traffic was seen moving
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How the dude with a $50 stock portfolio is monitoring the situation after Trump closes the Strait of Hormuz
Shower thought... China released GLM-5.2 last week. Open-source, MIT license, freely downloadable.
Pretty much equivalent to Claude Opus, beats GPT on some benchmarks, cheaper per token, and built on Huawei chips (no $NVDA hardware).
Z.ai (HKEX $02513.HK) has been absolutely soaring.
Interestingly, U.S Gov shut down Claude Fable 5/Mythos 5 a few days prior to GLM-5.2 release.
This is what happens when the U.S. caps its own AI capabilities. While Anthropic faces restrictions, China delivers competitive alternatives for free.
But here's the 4D chess they're playing...
Trump confirmed in early June he's exploring equity stakes in major AI companies. Word for word, he expects to meet with "all the big ones" at the White House.
($INTC set precedent: U.S Gov took 10% stake ($8.9B) last year. CHIPS Act grants converted to equity)
IMO the restrictions are negotiation leverage. Claim the equity before Anthropic IPOs, secure partnerships, then remove restrictions = global wealth continues to flood into U.S companies.
The U.S. won't gatekeep Claude much longer, esp. with China continuously delivering.
Prime time to be positioning in Neocloud, like $NBIS, $WYFI, $CRWV, and more.
Pretty much equivalent to Claude Opus, beats GPT on some benchmarks, cheaper per token, and built on Huawei chips (no $NVDA hardware).
Z.ai (HKEX $02513.HK) has been absolutely soaring.
Interestingly, U.S Gov shut down Claude Fable 5/Mythos 5 a few days prior to GLM-5.2 release.
This is what happens when the U.S. caps its own AI capabilities. While Anthropic faces restrictions, China delivers competitive alternatives for free.
But here's the 4D chess they're playing...
Trump confirmed in early June he's exploring equity stakes in major AI companies. Word for word, he expects to meet with "all the big ones" at the White House.
($INTC set precedent: U.S Gov took 10% stake ($8.9B) last year. CHIPS Act grants converted to equity)
IMO the restrictions are negotiation leverage. Claim the equity before Anthropic IPOs, secure partnerships, then remove restrictions = global wealth continues to flood into U.S companies.
The U.S. won't gatekeep Claude much longer, esp. with China continuously delivering.
Prime time to be positioning in Neocloud, like $NBIS, $WYFI, $CRWV, and more.
✍1
If $WYFI follows $NBIS chart, may be more
$WYFI reminds me of an early-stage $NBIS.
> Both serve the structural AI compute demand thesis
> Both have major contracted backlogs (relative to size)
> Both validated by smart money positioning (Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Fund holds BOTH)
> Both benefit from hyperscalers unable to build fast enough
$NBIS: ~$72B MC, $45B+ contracted backlog. Vertically integrated AI cloud platform with own ML stack + $NVDA equity.
$WYFI: ~$1.4B MC, $1B+ contracted backlog. Pure-play AI infrastructure provider. Large asymmetry.
Both companies sell capacity to entities that need AI compute. Both benefit from $ORCL's backlog validation.
$WYFI is positioned near where $NBIS was before it absolutely took off...
$NBIS is undoubtedly the industry leader, and should continue to stay ahead. But $WYFI is the asymmetric opportunity - higher risk, and much higher reward.
$WYFI reminds me of an early-stage $NBIS.
> Both serve the structural AI compute demand thesis
> Both have major contracted backlogs (relative to size)
> Both validated by smart money positioning (Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Fund holds BOTH)
> Both benefit from hyperscalers unable to build fast enough
$NBIS: ~$72B MC, $45B+ contracted backlog. Vertically integrated AI cloud platform with own ML stack + $NVDA equity.
$WYFI: ~$1.4B MC, $1B+ contracted backlog. Pure-play AI infrastructure provider. Large asymmetry.
Both companies sell capacity to entities that need AI compute. Both benefit from $ORCL's backlog validation.
$WYFI is positioned near where $NBIS was before it absolutely took off...
$NBIS is undoubtedly the industry leader, and should continue to stay ahead. But $WYFI is the asymmetric opportunity - higher risk, and much higher reward.
✍1
Before Neocloud rallies hard...
Here's what I like about:
$BTDR - ~3.0 GW global power portfolio with $69M+ AI Cloud ARR and Norway data center conversion
$CIFR - Nearly $10B in contracted HPC revenue (AWS $AMZN, Fluidstack, $GOOGL partnerships)
$CLSK - Strong balance sheet, but still awaiting hyperscaler AI lease
$CORZ - $CRWV hosting deal with gigawatt-scale Muskogee, Oklahoma buildout
$CRWV - Benchmark with $NVDA equity stake, $MSFT anchor, and Nasdaq-100 inclusion
$IREN - Multi-billion dollar $MSFT contract with direct $NVDA partnership
$NBIS - Vertically integrated AI cloud platform with $45B+ backlog, $NVDA equity stake, and Nasdaq-100 inclusion
$WYFI - My favorite at the moment. Reminds me of a smaller cap and earlier stage $NBIS, just signed second major contract ($160M+ Paris)
Or $WGMI ETF is an option for broad exposure.
Most sit at different layers of the same structural AI infrastructure thesis.
Here's what I like about:
$BTDR - ~3.0 GW global power portfolio with $69M+ AI Cloud ARR and Norway data center conversion
$CIFR - Nearly $10B in contracted HPC revenue (AWS $AMZN, Fluidstack, $GOOGL partnerships)
$CLSK - Strong balance sheet, but still awaiting hyperscaler AI lease
$CORZ - $CRWV hosting deal with gigawatt-scale Muskogee, Oklahoma buildout
$CRWV - Benchmark with $NVDA equity stake, $MSFT anchor, and Nasdaq-100 inclusion
$IREN - Multi-billion dollar $MSFT contract with direct $NVDA partnership
$NBIS - Vertically integrated AI cloud platform with $45B+ backlog, $NVDA equity stake, and Nasdaq-100 inclusion
$WYFI - My favorite at the moment. Reminds me of a smaller cap and earlier stage $NBIS, just signed second major contract ($160M+ Paris)
Or $WGMI ETF is an option for broad exposure.
Most sit at different layers of the same structural AI infrastructure thesis.