🚨Iran just threatened to close both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb simultaneously.

🛢️📈Oil jumped 6% in minutes.

This morning, Iran's state outlet Tasnim reported via Telegram:

→ Iran will halt indirect talks with the US

→ Iran and the "resistance front" will "completely block" the Strait of Hormuz

→ They will "activate other fronts" including Bab el-Mandeb

That's not one maritime chokepoint. That's both of them at once.

The oil market reacted immediately not because barrels stopped flowing today, but because the market is repricing the probability of a scenario it had not yet fully priced.

Brent was in the low-to-mid 90s.

A 5%+ intraday move pushes it toward the high 90s.

$100 is now the obvious psychological test.

Why this threat lands differently than previous rhetoric.

Hormuz alone carries roughly 20% of global crude and LNG trade.

The world has already been losing an estimated 4.5-5 mb/d since the conflict began the largest supply disruption on record before any declared full closure.

Bab el-Mandeb is the southern gate of the Red Sea and the Suez corridor the primary East-West shipping artery.

Attacks there close the Suez route for any cargo that hasn't already been rerouting around the Cape.

Both chokepoints disrupted simultaneously means there is no unaffected route from the Persian Gulf to Europe or Asia that doesn't add weeks to voyage time.

The strip is not yet pricing the worst case.