Iran's "Hormuz weapon" is real.

But every year it gets slightly less powerful and a deal may now be closer than at any point since the war began.

But Trump says a deal is "largely negotiated."

Iranian officials reference a 14-point framework.

Structure:

end hostilities → gradual Hormuz reopening → 30-60 day nuclear negotiation window.

🚨Trump says a deal with Iran is "largely negotiated"

Iranian officials are talking about a 14-point framework.

Hormuz could reopen.
But nothing is signed.

Here's what's real and what isn't ⚠️

Let's be precise about what we actually know.

What is confirmed:

→ Trump: deal is "largely negotiated," will include reopening Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade

→ Iranian officials: a draft 14-point framework exists, providing a basis for further talks

→ Structure: end active hostilities

→ gradual Hormuz reopening

→ 30–60 day negotiation window on nuclear issues and sanctions

Sources: Reuters, CNN, Axios, Al Jazeera, TIME all describe a draft framework, not a signed agreement

What is not confirmed:

→ Hormuz "fully reopened" on day one reporting says gradual, not immediate

→ No transit fees analyst speculation, no agreed text

→ Zero US payments drafts describe partial sanctions relief and frozen asset releases, which contradicts a clean "no payments" framing

→ Full lifting of Iranian oil sanctions phased relief tied to nuclear steps, not unconditional

→ Lebanon as formal ceasefire signatory likely included in de-escalation but not confirmed as a named party

→ Exactly "60 days" for nuclear talks 30–60 day window reported, precise figure unconfirmed ⚡

This is high-probability direction of travel toward Hormuz reopening and partial sanctions relief.

It is not a done deal.

Oil and LNG prices will move on the framework rumour.

They would move hard in the opposite direction if the text falls apart 📊

A signed deal reopens Hormuz, brings back 12.8 mtpa of Qatari LNG capacity over years, and gradually unlocks Iranian barrels.

A collapsed deal keeps the current supply shock and potentially escalates it.

Both outcomes are still on the table.

Nothing is signed yet 🌍