๐จHalf the world's top 10 copper miners couldn't hit their own targets
while demand is about to surge๐
โ ๏ธThis is a supply warning
โ CMOC: +111kt above midpoint
โ Rio Tinto: +68kt
โ BHP: +18kt (expected)
โ CODELCO โ Corporaciรณn Nacional del Cobre de Chile: +9kt
โ Zijin Mining Group: โ65kt
โ Grupo Antofagasta Minerals: โ26kt
โ Anglo American: โ24kt
โ Grupo Mรฉxico: โ12kt
โ Glencore: โ11kt
Among the top 10 producers on earth 4 beat but 5 missed.
The demand side isn't slowing down
โ Data centers alone: +475kt copper demand in 2026 vs prior year
โ Grid infrastructure: 60%+ of all copper demand growth to 2030
โ EVs use 3โ4x more copper than gas vehicles
โ For Bloomberg demand could triple by 2045
โ 8 mtpa of new mining capacity needed by 2035
None of it exists yet.
the forecast:
ICSG: market moves into shortage in 2026
Goldman Sachs: 160kt surplus
J.P. Morgan: copper at $12,500/t in Q2 2026
You can model demand all you want.
The constraint is always supply.
And the top 10 just told you supply is harder than the models assume.
while demand is about to surge๐
โ ๏ธThis is a supply warning
โ CMOC: +111kt above midpoint
โ Rio Tinto: +68kt
โ BHP: +18kt (expected)
โ CODELCO โ Corporaciรณn Nacional del Cobre de Chile: +9kt
โ Zijin Mining Group: โ65kt
โ Grupo Antofagasta Minerals: โ26kt
โ Anglo American: โ24kt
โ Grupo Mรฉxico: โ12kt
โ Glencore: โ11kt
Among the top 10 producers on earth 4 beat but 5 missed.
The demand side isn't slowing down
โ Data centers alone: +475kt copper demand in 2026 vs prior year
โ Grid infrastructure: 60%+ of all copper demand growth to 2030
โ EVs use 3โ4x more copper than gas vehicles
โ For Bloomberg demand could triple by 2045
โ 8 mtpa of new mining capacity needed by 2035
None of it exists yet.
the forecast:
ICSG: market moves into shortage in 2026
Goldman Sachs: 160kt surplus
J.P. Morgan: copper at $12,500/t in Q2 2026
You can model demand all you want.
The constraint is always supply.
And the top 10 just told you supply is harder than the models assume.
THE 7 LAYERS OF PHOTONICS
1. Materials & Wafers (substrate layer)
$AXTI, $IQE $WOLF, $COHR, $LWLG
2. Tools (fabrication layer)
$ASML, $AMAT, $LRCX
3. Lasers (light generation layer)
$LITE, $COHR, $LASR, $SMTC
4. Foundries (manufacturing layer)
$TSM, $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $INTC
5. Test, Inspection & Packaging (reliability layer)
$AEHR, $VIAV, $ONTO, $AMKR, $FN
6. Optics (module layer)
$AAOI, $POET, $GLW
7. Networking (connectivity layer)
$CRDO, $MRVL, $AVGO, $ANET, $CIEN
1. Materials & Wafers (substrate layer)
$AXTI, $IQE $WOLF, $COHR, $LWLG
2. Tools (fabrication layer)
$ASML, $AMAT, $LRCX
3. Lasers (light generation layer)
$LITE, $COHR, $LASR, $SMTC
4. Foundries (manufacturing layer)
$TSM, $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $INTC
5. Test, Inspection & Packaging (reliability layer)
$AEHR, $VIAV, $ONTO, $AMKR, $FN
6. Optics (module layer)
$AAOI, $POET, $GLW
7. Networking (connectivity layer)
$CRDO, $MRVL, $AVGO, $ANET, $CIEN
The corporate earnings season continues in the US.
Monday, April 27:
- Nothing important
Tuesday, April 28:
- Nothing important
Wednesday, April 29:
๐ฏ๐ต Japan - No trading (Showa Day)
๐บ๐ธ USA - Durable Goods Orders (March) - 15:30
Thursday, April 30:
๐บ๐ธ USA - Initial Jobless Claims - 15:30
๐บ๐ธ USA - Chicago PMI (April) - 17:45
๐บ๐ธ USA - Fed balance sheet - 23:30
Friday, May 1:
๐ China, Brazil, India, and several other countries - No trading (Labor Day)
๐บ๐ธ USA - S&P Manufacturing PMI (April) - 16:45
๐บ๐ธ USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (April) - 17:00
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For the first time in history, renewables met 100% of global electricity demand growth in 2025.
Every new TWh the world consumed last year was covered by solar and clean sources fossil fuels added nothing net to the growth equation.
In 2001 almost all demand growth was fossil fuels.
By 2025 solar alone is carrying the load.
โ ๏ธBut this happened the same year Hormuz closed and reminded the world that electricity generation and liquid fuels are 2 completely different problems and renewables solve just 1 of them.
You can solar-panel your grid.
You can't solar-panel a 747....
Every new TWh the world consumed last year was covered by solar and clean sources fossil fuels added nothing net to the growth equation.
In 2001 almost all demand growth was fossil fuels.
By 2025 solar alone is carrying the load.
โ ๏ธBut this happened the same year Hormuz closed and reminded the world that electricity generation and liquid fuels are 2 completely different problems and renewables solve just 1 of them.
You can solar-panel your grid.
You can't solar-panel a 747....
$JOBY โ Real Catalyst + Technical Compression
Electric air taxis are no longer a concept โ rollout is accelerating, and $JOBY is positioning early.
The Technicals:
โ Trend: Downtrend slowing โ base forming near support
โ TTM Squeeze: ON โ volatility expansion loading
โ OBV: Recovering โ accumulation quietly building
โ MFI: Holding strength above 60
Key Level: $8.80
Target 1: $9.90
Target 2: $13.60
Support: $7.80
This is where early positioning happens before the move.
Watch the breakout.
Electric air taxis are no longer a concept โ rollout is accelerating, and $JOBY is positioning early.
The Technicals:
โ Trend: Downtrend slowing โ base forming near support
โ TTM Squeeze: ON โ volatility expansion loading
โ OBV: Recovering โ accumulation quietly building
โ MFI: Holding strength above 60
Key Level: $8.80
Target 1: $9.90
Target 2: $13.60
Support: $7.80
This is where early positioning happens before the move.
Watch the breakout.