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$BATL $COP $OXY $XOM $CVX | Trump: "It’s called all in, and all out...We’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like. It’s going to be all or none."
PHOTONICS / OPTICAL STACK — THE FULL VALUE CHAIN
“The layer below the chips” — AI’s real bottleneck
Layer 1 — Materials
Foundation of everything (InP, fiber, wafers)
$AXTI $GLW $COHR
Layer 2 — SiPh Foundries
Where photonic chips are fabricated
$TSMC $GFS $TSEM
Layer 3 — Lasers (Bottleneck)
EML + CW lasers — tightest supply in the chain
$LITE $COHR $AAOI $FN
Layer 4 — PICs (Optical Chips)
Integration layer replacing discrete components
$POET $LWLG $MRVL $AVGO
Layer 5 — Transceivers
400G → 800G → 1.6T data movement
$CIEN $AAOI $LITE $COHR
Layer 6 — Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
Next-gen architecture — optics + silicon combined
$NVDA $AVGO $MRVL $COHR $LITE $ALAB
Layer 7 — Optical Switching (OCS)
Routing light without electrical conversion
$CIEN $COHR $LITE
Layer 8 — Networking Systems
DCI, long-haul, metro infrastructure
$CIEN $ANET $NOK
Layer 9 — Test & EDA
Hidden backbone enabling scale
$KEYS $FORM $ANSS
Layer 10 — Demand Drivers
Hyperscalers pulling the entire chain
$NVDA $META $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN
THE BIG PICTURE (2026–2027)
- AI demand is exponential
- Electrical interconnects are hitting limits
- Optical = the only scalable solution
Key Constraint: Laser supply (InP → EML/CW)
→ Bottleneck today = pricing power tomorrow
This isn’t a single stock trade.
It’s a full-stack infrastructure shift — like semis in the early 2000s.
The winners won’t just be chipmakers…
They’ll be the ones enabling light-speed data movement.
“The layer below the chips” — AI’s real bottleneck
Layer 1 — Materials
Foundation of everything (InP, fiber, wafers)
$AXTI $GLW $COHR
Layer 2 — SiPh Foundries
Where photonic chips are fabricated
$TSMC $GFS $TSEM
Layer 3 — Lasers (Bottleneck)
EML + CW lasers — tightest supply in the chain
$LITE $COHR $AAOI $FN
Layer 4 — PICs (Optical Chips)
Integration layer replacing discrete components
$POET $LWLG $MRVL $AVGO
Layer 5 — Transceivers
400G → 800G → 1.6T data movement
$CIEN $AAOI $LITE $COHR
Layer 6 — Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
Next-gen architecture — optics + silicon combined
$NVDA $AVGO $MRVL $COHR $LITE $ALAB
Layer 7 — Optical Switching (OCS)
Routing light without electrical conversion
$CIEN $COHR $LITE
Layer 8 — Networking Systems
DCI, long-haul, metro infrastructure
$CIEN $ANET $NOK
Layer 9 — Test & EDA
Hidden backbone enabling scale
$KEYS $FORM $ANSS
Layer 10 — Demand Drivers
Hyperscalers pulling the entire chain
$NVDA $META $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN
THE BIG PICTURE (2026–2027)
- AI demand is exponential
- Electrical interconnects are hitting limits
- Optical = the only scalable solution
Key Constraint: Laser supply (InP → EML/CW)
→ Bottleneck today = pricing power tomorrow
This isn’t a single stock trade.
It’s a full-stack infrastructure shift — like semis in the early 2000s.
The winners won’t just be chipmakers…
They’ll be the ones enabling light-speed data movement.
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China unveils NEW HUMAN-LIKE HAND FOR ROBOTS
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Trump realizing he can just blockade the blockade.
Google quietly open sourced a time-series AI that predicts anything.
Sales trends. Market prices. User traffic. Energy demand. Crypto volatility.
It's called TimesFM. Pre-trained on 100B real-world data points. Zero-shot forecasting with no fine-tuning. Outperforms supervised models trained on your specific data.
Runs locally. Free. Apache license.
Most people are focused on language models. The quietly powerful ones are learning to predict the future.
github.com/google-research/timesfm
Sales trends. Market prices. User traffic. Energy demand. Crypto volatility.
It's called TimesFM. Pre-trained on 100B real-world data points. Zero-shot forecasting with no fine-tuning. Outperforms supervised models trained on your specific data.
Runs locally. Free. Apache license.
Most people are focused on language models. The quietly powerful ones are learning to predict the future.
github.com/google-research/timesfm
✍1
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
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Oil power didn't stay where it started.
The countries controlling energy today look nothing like the map from 50 years ago.
And right now, that map is shifting again faster than anyone expected.
🇺🇸 US: from import-dependent to world's n.1 producer
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 700K bpd knocked offline by Iranian strikes
🇷🇺 Russia: sanctions-hit but Urals just hit a 13 year high
🇮🇷 Iran: controls the world's most critical chokepoint
🌍 Everyone else: scrambling for alternatives
Decades of energy geopolitics rewired in weeks.
Hormuz didn't just block oil.
It exposed exactly who holds the cards and who doesn't.
The next energy map is being drawn right now.
The countries controlling energy today look nothing like the map from 50 years ago.
And right now, that map is shifting again faster than anyone expected.
🇺🇸 US: from import-dependent to world's n.1 producer
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 700K bpd knocked offline by Iranian strikes
🇷🇺 Russia: sanctions-hit but Urals just hit a 13 year high
🇮🇷 Iran: controls the world's most critical chokepoint
🌍 Everyone else: scrambling for alternatives
Decades of energy geopolitics rewired in weeks.
Hormuz didn't just block oil.
It exposed exactly who holds the cards and who doesn't.
The next energy map is being drawn right now.
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
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🚨 THE BLOCKADE IS OFFICIAL!
The US military announces a Naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz will COMMENCE at 10AM ET tomorrow morning at the direction of President Trump
47 has all the cards. Confirmed.
CENTCOM: "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports."
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
The US military announces a Naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz will COMMENCE at 10AM ET tomorrow morning at the direction of President Trump
47 has all the cards. Confirmed.
CENTCOM: "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports."
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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The amount of US airforce transports heading to the Middle East tonight is insane.
Something is definitely up...
Something is definitely up...
👀1
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
We just beat 2022 inflation.... Almost.
Then Hormuz happened.
📊 Bloomberg Economics is now modeling a High-Oil Scenario that pushes global CPI back to 5% by Q3 2026.
We did 4 years of rate hikes to kill inflation.
One blocked strait is unwinding it in weeks.
And now the US Navy is blockading Hormuz too.
There is no low oil scenario anymore
Then Hormuz happened.
📊 Bloomberg Economics is now modeling a High-Oil Scenario that pushes global CPI back to 5% by Q3 2026.
We did 4 years of rate hikes to kill inflation.
One blocked strait is unwinding it in weeks.
And now the US Navy is blockading Hormuz too.
There is no low oil scenario anymore
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Trumpzilla returns