THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT
AN OIL + DOLLAR SHORTAGE
The nightmare scenario nobody is talking about right now is what happens if the Dollar skyrockets at the same time as oil.
Since the world's oil supply is purchased in Dollars, they are typically inversely correlated. A lower Dollar = increased international demand for oil.
The only time we've seen a brief period of oil 🔼 Dollar 🔼 was in 2022, during the economic slowdown.
The nightmare scenario we're facing is a global oil supply shortage at the same time as an economic crisis.
Both of these compound the demand for Dollars because not only are nations forced to liquidate greater assets to purchase oil, but servicing sovereign debt becomes much more expensive because it's denominated in Dollars.
This energy crisis could very well be the beginning of Brent Johnson's #SantiagoAuFund Dollar Milkshake Theory and the United States' plan to take a large portion of its debt out of circulation.
AN OIL + DOLLAR SHORTAGE
The nightmare scenario nobody is talking about right now is what happens if the Dollar skyrockets at the same time as oil.
Since the world's oil supply is purchased in Dollars, they are typically inversely correlated. A lower Dollar = increased international demand for oil.
The only time we've seen a brief period of oil 🔼 Dollar 🔼 was in 2022, during the economic slowdown.
The nightmare scenario we're facing is a global oil supply shortage at the same time as an economic crisis.
Both of these compound the demand for Dollars because not only are nations forced to liquidate greater assets to purchase oil, but servicing sovereign debt becomes much more expensive because it's denominated in Dollars.
This energy crisis could very well be the beginning of Brent Johnson's #SantiagoAuFund Dollar Milkshake Theory and the United States' plan to take a large portion of its debt out of circulation.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
MIT students developed a magnetically controlled, shape shifting robot that can turn into anything.
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MIT’s Self-Folding Origami #Robot Transforms from Flat Sheet to Crawling, Climbing, Swimming Machine
#calendar
⚡️ Calendar of key events for this week:
Monday, April 6:
🇺🇸 USA - Non-Manufacturing PMI (March)
Tuesday, April 7:
🇨🇳 China - No trading (Qingming)
🇺🇸 USA - Durable Goods Orders (Feb)
Wednesday, April 8:
🔥 USA, Iran - Deadline for Donald Trump's ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz
🇺🇸 USA - Minutes from the last Fed meeting
Thursday, April 9:
🔥 USA - GDP (Q4 2025, prelim.)
🔥 USA - PCE Price index (Feb)
🇺🇸 USA - Initial Jobless Claims
🇺🇸 USA - Fed balance sheet
Friday, April 10:
🔥 USA - CPI consumer inflation (March)
🇺🇸 USA - Consumer inflation expectations (Apr)
⚡️ Calendar of key events for this week:
Monday, April 6:
🇺🇸 USA - Non-Manufacturing PMI (March)
Tuesday, April 7:
🇨🇳 China - No trading (Qingming)
🇺🇸 USA - Durable Goods Orders (Feb)
Wednesday, April 8:
🔥 USA, Iran - Deadline for Donald Trump's ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz
🇺🇸 USA - Minutes from the last Fed meeting
Thursday, April 9:
🔥 USA - GDP (Q4 2025, prelim.)
🔥 USA - PCE Price index (Feb)
🇺🇸 USA - Initial Jobless Claims
🇺🇸 USA - Fed balance sheet
Friday, April 10:
🔥 USA - CPI consumer inflation (March)
🇺🇸 USA - Consumer inflation expectations (Apr)
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🇺🇸The U.S. Army uses a fast mobile rocket system called HIMARS. $LMT
It's basically a lighter version of the bigger M270 launcher mounted on a truck.
It can be flown in on a C-130 and be ready to fire in just 15 minutes.
The crew drives it close to the fight, gets target coordinates, launches missiles, and quickly moves to a new spot to avoid being hit.
One of its key weapons is the Precision Strike Missile. It uses GPS to accurately hit deep targets with a powerful warhead.
When working with F-35 fighter jets, the jet spots enemy targets and sends the coordinates so HIMARS can strike them quickly and precisely.
It's basically a lighter version of the bigger M270 launcher mounted on a truck.
It can be flown in on a C-130 and be ready to fire in just 15 minutes.
The crew drives it close to the fight, gets target coordinates, launches missiles, and quickly moves to a new spot to avoid being hit.
One of its key weapons is the Precision Strike Missile. It uses GPS to accurately hit deep targets with a powerful warhead.
When working with F-35 fighter jets, the jet spots enemy targets and sends the coordinates so HIMARS can strike them quickly and precisely.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🇺🇸The U.S. Army uses a fast mobile rocket system called HIMARS. $LMT It's basically a lighter version of the bigger M270 launcher mounted on a truck. It can be flown in on a C-130 and be ready to fire in just 15 minutes. The crew drives it close to the…
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Pentagon has put together contingency plans for possible limited ground raids inside Iran.
According to reports, these would involve Special Operations forces and some conventional infantry units, not a full invasion.
Source: U.S. Defense News
According to reports, these would involve Special Operations forces and some conventional infantry units, not a full invasion.
Source: U.S. Defense News
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Elon Musk perfectly explains why fully reusable orbital rockets are insanely hard to build
Our Earth has quite strong gravity and thick atmosphere. With known physics, building a fully reusable orbital rocket is only barely possible
"If this was a video game, the setting is 'Extreme Difficulty.' Not impossible, but extreme difficulty"
Because the physics are so unforgiving, everything has to be perfect. You can't just have a "good" rocket
You need:
• Exceptionally efficient engines
• An incredibly optimized, lightweight structure
• Advanced avionics and software
• A revolutionary, ultra-light heat shield for orbital reentry
There is zero margin for error. This is why making life multi-planetary is the hardest engineering challenge in human history
Our Earth has quite strong gravity and thick atmosphere. With known physics, building a fully reusable orbital rocket is only barely possible
"If this was a video game, the setting is 'Extreme Difficulty.' Not impossible, but extreme difficulty"
Because the physics are so unforgiving, everything has to be perfect. You can't just have a "good" rocket
You need:
• Exceptionally efficient engines
• An incredibly optimized, lightweight structure
• Advanced avionics and software
• A revolutionary, ultra-light heat shield for orbital reentry
There is zero margin for error. This is why making life multi-planetary is the hardest engineering challenge in human history
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Iranian Revolutionary Guard elements were harvested by Apache aerial fire. Every time a group of Iranian Revolutionary Guards tried to approach the American pilot,
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Pave Hawks flying low at just 50 feet.
A-10s unleash suppressive fire while fighter jets secure air superiority. PJs drop straight into combat to extract a single individual.
The clip shows how CSAR operations unfold step by step.
A-10s unleash suppressive fire while fighter jets secure air superiority. PJs drop straight into combat to extract a single individual.
The clip shows how CSAR operations unfold step by step.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Handy comparison between the Apollo's command module and Orion. Orion is slightly taller and four feet wider. Habitable volume = 210ft^3 vs 314ft^3
🚨 Artemis II’s BIGGEST milestones are tomorrow. Here’s when they’ll happen:
📍1:56 PM ET (1756 UTC) Crew surpasses the Apollo 13 distance record
📍2:45 PM ET (1845 UTC) Lunar observation period begins
📍6:47 PM ET (2247 UTC) Loss of signal expected as Orion heads behind the Moon (~40 min)
📍7:02 PM ET (2302 UTC) Closest approach to the Moon
📍7:05 PM ET (2305 UTC) Orion reaches its furthest point from Earth
Tomorrow is going to be HISTORIC!
📍1:56 PM ET (1756 UTC) Crew surpasses the Apollo 13 distance record
📍2:45 PM ET (1845 UTC) Lunar observation period begins
📍6:47 PM ET (2247 UTC) Loss of signal expected as Orion heads behind the Moon (~40 min)
📍7:02 PM ET (2302 UTC) Closest approach to the Moon
📍7:05 PM ET (2305 UTC) Orion reaches its furthest point from Earth
Tomorrow is going to be HISTORIC!
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The UK has unveiled a new long-range strike drone TigerShark, developed by MGi Engineering and first tested in April 2026.
Still in early testing, the drone is described as a deep-strike platform, closer to a cruise missile-type system than a conventional UAV.
#UK #UAV #DroneStrike #MilitaryTech
Still in early testing, the drone is described as a deep-strike platform, closer to a cruise missile-type system than a conventional UAV.
#UK #UAV #DroneStrike #MilitaryTech
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Anduril is reportedly expanding its Arsenal-1 facility in Ohio with a $1B investment to scale production of defense systems.
The site is expected to cover ~464,000 m² and employ over 4,000 people in the coming years.
#USA #Anduril #Defense #Production
The site is expected to cover ~464,000 m² and employ over 4,000 people in the coming years.
#USA #Anduril #Defense #Production
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Anduril is reportedly expanding its Arsenal-1 facility in Ohio with a $1B investment to scale production of defense systems. The site is expected to cover ~464,000 m² and employ over 4,000 people in the coming years. #USA #Anduril #Defense #Production
Company officials report a ~15× increase in output between 2025–2026, highlighting growing demand for unmanned and defense technologies at scale.
(Source: Jane’s Defence)
#MilitaryTech #Industry #Aerospace
(Source: Jane’s Defence)
#MilitaryTech #Industry #Aerospace
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The UK has unveiled a new long-range strike drone TigerShark, developed by MGi Engineering and first tested in April 2026. Still in early testing, the drone is described as a deep-strike platform, closer to a cruise missile-type system than a conventional…
The system reportedly reaches ~750 km/h, carries up to 300 kg, and may operate over 1,000 km with GPS/INS navigation and terrain-referencing.
#Defense #Autonomous #Aerospace
#Defense #Autonomous #Aerospace
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
Saudi Arabia just did something it has never done before.
$19.5 premium per barrel over benchmark
Look at that chart.
Every bar since 2021 between $0 and $10.
Then 2026.
Straight to $19.5, a vertical spike unlike anything in the data.
This is what a seller's market looks like when the seller controls the only bypass route.
Think about what Saudi Arabia is saying:
Hormuz is closed✅
Every bypass pipeline is maxed ✅
Asia is desperate for our quality barrels ✅
You have nowhere else to go✅
So pay $19.5 over benchmark or go without.
Asia will pay.
Because the alternative empty refineries, shuttered factories, social unrest costs infinitely more.
This premium lands directly on:
⛽ Every petrol station in Asia
✈️ Every airline ticket price
🏭 Every factory input cost
$19.5 premium per barrel over benchmark
Look at that chart.
Every bar since 2021 between $0 and $10.
Then 2026.
Straight to $19.5, a vertical spike unlike anything in the data.
This is what a seller's market looks like when the seller controls the only bypass route.
Think about what Saudi Arabia is saying:
Hormuz is closed✅
Every bypass pipeline is maxed ✅
Asia is desperate for our quality barrels ✅
You have nowhere else to go✅
So pay $19.5 over benchmark or go without.
Asia will pay.
Because the alternative empty refineries, shuttered factories, social unrest costs infinitely more.
This premium lands directly on:
⛽ Every petrol station in Asia
✈️ Every airline ticket price
🏭 Every factory input cost
WSJ just published a piece. OpenAI and Anthropic just showed that modern AI is becoming a race to finance compute, not just invent better models.
Their internal forecasts say the hardest part is no longer selling AI, but paying for the giant clusters of chips needed to train each new model and run inference for every user prompt.
OpenAI expects $121B in compute spending for 2028 and an $85B burn that year even with much higher sales, while Anthropic projects the same pattern at a smaller scale.
Both companies therefore present 2 profit views: one that removes research compute and makes the business look close to viable, and one that includes it and shows how far they still are from normal software economics.
Their internal forecasts say the hardest part is no longer selling AI, but paying for the giant clusters of chips needed to train each new model and run inference for every user prompt.
OpenAI expects $121B in compute spending for 2028 and an $85B burn that year even with much higher sales, while Anthropic projects the same pattern at a smaller scale.
Both companies therefore present 2 profit views: one that removes research compute and makes the business look close to viable, and one that includes it and shows how far they still are from normal software economics.
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$SIVE $SOI $AEHR 🔥
The market is still pricing in 2024/2025 revenues while the real volume ramp kicks off in H2 2026. LightCounting is already forecasting a $110B+ TAM with explosive growth - and the overlapping S-curves (800G → LPO/LRO → CPO → 1.6T/3.2T) are setting up a true multi-year supercycle.
The pure-play names are positioned exceptionally well:
$SIVE → CW-Laser + ELS technology - direct winner from the next big architecture shift in CPO/SiPH
$SOI → Silicon-on-Insulator substrates & photonics foundry - absolutely critical for the new generation
$AEHR → Test equipment that prints money once yield challenges hit and volumes really scale
These three are still not properly priced in. Forward P/E compression + massive TAM expansion = huge re-rating upside starting H2 2026.
We’re at the very beginning of the next major inflection point. Anyone holding the cleanest photonics names right now is sitting in the perfect seat.
NFA - but the asymmetry is absolutely brutal.
The market is still pricing in 2024/2025 revenues while the real volume ramp kicks off in H2 2026. LightCounting is already forecasting a $110B+ TAM with explosive growth - and the overlapping S-curves (800G → LPO/LRO → CPO → 1.6T/3.2T) are setting up a true multi-year supercycle.
The pure-play names are positioned exceptionally well:
$SIVE → CW-Laser + ELS technology - direct winner from the next big architecture shift in CPO/SiPH
$SOI → Silicon-on-Insulator substrates & photonics foundry - absolutely critical for the new generation
$AEHR → Test equipment that prints money once yield challenges hit and volumes really scale
These three are still not properly priced in. Forward P/E compression + massive TAM expansion = huge re-rating upside starting H2 2026.
We’re at the very beginning of the next major inflection point. Anyone holding the cleanest photonics names right now is sitting in the perfect seat.
NFA - but the asymmetry is absolutely brutal.