Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
This small Island with just 90,000 Population is the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries. Not Japan or China.
For decades everyone assumed Japan and China were holding up the US debt market. The Federal Reserve just admitted that is wrong.
The Cayman Islands officially shows up at $427 billion in US Treasury holdings, making it the sixth largest foreign holder on paper. Japan sits at $1.22 trillion. That is what the official data says.
The Fed's own researchers found the official data is wrong by $1.4 trillion. After adjusting for the undercount, the Cayman Islands is actually the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, holding significantly more than China, Japan, and the UK combined.
But why ?
The Cayman Islands is the legal home to roughly three quarters of the world's offshore hedge funds.
When these funds buy Treasuries they count toward the Cayman Islands total, despite the fact that most funds are managed from elsewhere.
Between 2022 and 2024, Cayman Islands hedge funds purchased $1.2 trillion of Treasury securities, absorbing 37% of all net issuance.
Nearly the same amount as all other foreign investors combined.
Now here is the risk.
Unlike central banks or sovereign funds, hedge funds have no obligation to stay in times of stress. In April 2025, a sudden tariff announcement caused funds to unwind simultaneously, exacerbating selling pressure across the entire Treasury market.
The largest buyer propping up US debt is not Japan or China. It is a group of highly leveraged hedge funds domiciled in a Caribbean island with a GDP of $7 billion, financing positions overnight, with no obligation to stay if conditions change.
The Fed researchers ended their paper with one line: "Data users should be aware that this major gap exists."
For decades everyone assumed Japan and China were holding up the US debt market. The Federal Reserve just admitted that is wrong.
The Cayman Islands officially shows up at $427 billion in US Treasury holdings, making it the sixth largest foreign holder on paper. Japan sits at $1.22 trillion. That is what the official data says.
The Fed's own researchers found the official data is wrong by $1.4 trillion. After adjusting for the undercount, the Cayman Islands is actually the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, holding significantly more than China, Japan, and the UK combined.
But why ?
The Cayman Islands is the legal home to roughly three quarters of the world's offshore hedge funds.
When these funds buy Treasuries they count toward the Cayman Islands total, despite the fact that most funds are managed from elsewhere.
Between 2022 and 2024, Cayman Islands hedge funds purchased $1.2 trillion of Treasury securities, absorbing 37% of all net issuance.
Nearly the same amount as all other foreign investors combined.
Now here is the risk.
Unlike central banks or sovereign funds, hedge funds have no obligation to stay in times of stress. In April 2025, a sudden tariff announcement caused funds to unwind simultaneously, exacerbating selling pressure across the entire Treasury market.
The largest buyer propping up US debt is not Japan or China. It is a group of highly leveraged hedge funds domiciled in a Caribbean island with a GDP of $7 billion, financing positions overnight, with no obligation to stay if conditions change.
The Fed researchers ended their paper with one line: "Data users should be aware that this major gap exists."
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
ISRAEL IS PREPARING STRIKES ON IRAN’S ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, AWAITING U.S. APPROVAL.
According to Reuters, Israeli officials say action could come within the next week.
This comes just hours after Trump gave Iran a 48-hour deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of severe consequences if it does not.
At the same time, Iranian state media is reporting new air strikes on a petrochemical zone in southwestern Iran.
The situation is moving toward potential direct strikes on energy facilities, with escalation risks rising quickly.
According to Reuters, Israeli officials say action could come within the next week.
This comes just hours after Trump gave Iran a 48-hour deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of severe consequences if it does not.
At the same time, Iranian state media is reporting new air strikes on a petrochemical zone in southwestern Iran.
The situation is moving toward potential direct strikes on energy facilities, with escalation risks rising quickly.
✍2
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
$XYZ Block's Business lead, Owen Jennings: The link between company headcount and output broke in early December, after AI agents quickly became capable of working inside large, complex codebases. 1 engineer + 1 designer with AI, now move 10–100× faster.
$XYZ Block (Jack Dorsey's company) just open-sourced a local AI agent that goes way beyond code suggestions.
It's called Goose, and it already has 35k+ GitHub stars.
Here's the thing:
Most AI coding agents lock you into one LLM, but Goose works with 25+ providers natively. Claude, GPT, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek, Groq, Ollama, and more. Swap models in one command.
It doesn't just write code either. It builds entire projects, executes and debugs code, orchestrates workflows, and calls external APIs without you stepping in.
Some standout features:
↳ Uses MCP for extensions: file ops, web scraping, memory, automation, and more.
↳ Supports ACP, so it can use Claude Code, Codex, and Gemini CLI as providers.
↳ Runs 100% locally. Your code never leaves your machine.
↳ Auto-trims old context to keep token costs low.
Available as both a desktop app and CLI on macOS, Linux, and Windows.
And the best part is it comes under Apache 2.0 license, so it's 100% open source.
For developers who want an AI agent without vendor lock-in, this is worth a look.
github.com/block/goose
It's called Goose, and it already has 35k+ GitHub stars.
Here's the thing:
Most AI coding agents lock you into one LLM, but Goose works with 25+ providers natively. Claude, GPT, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek, Groq, Ollama, and more. Swap models in one command.
It doesn't just write code either. It builds entire projects, executes and debugs code, orchestrates workflows, and calls external APIs without you stepping in.
Some standout features:
↳ Uses MCP for extensions: file ops, web scraping, memory, automation, and more.
↳ Supports ACP, so it can use Claude Code, Codex, and Gemini CLI as providers.
↳ Runs 100% locally. Your code never leaves your machine.
↳ Auto-trims old context to keep token costs low.
Available as both a desktop app and CLI on macOS, Linux, and Windows.
And the best part is it comes under Apache 2.0 license, so it's 100% open source.
For developers who want an AI agent without vendor lock-in, this is worth a look.
github.com/block/goose
👀1
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Chamath: AI’s biggest profits may not go to model makers, just as refrigeration’s biggest winner wasn’t its inventor, but Coca-Cola.
When labs can build similar models, the real win comes from one unique ingredient, i.e. whoever builts the AI “Coca-Cola”
When labs can build similar models, the real win comes from one unique ingredient, i.e. whoever builts the AI “Coca-Cola”
🗿1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🛢️ Ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz 👇 🟢 Feb 26 → 🚢 132 🟢 Feb 27 → 🚢 128 🟠 Feb 28 → 🚢 98 🟠 Mar 01 → 🚢 18 🟠 Mar 02 → 🚢 7 🔴 Mar 03 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 04 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 05 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 06 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 07 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 08 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 09 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 10 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar…
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
LATEST UPDATE ON HORMUZ TRAFFIC:
Around 15 ships have passed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.
Here are the numbers over the last 15 days:
🔴 Mar 20 → 🚢 1
🔴 Mar 21 → 🚢 2
🔴 Mar 22 → 🚢 3
🔴 Mar 23 → 🚢 5
🔴 Mar 24 → 🚢 6
🔴 Mar 25 → 🚢 4
🔴 Mar 26 → 🚢 4
🔴 Mar 27 → 🚢 3
🟠 Mar 28 → 🚢 11
🟠 Mar 29 → 🚢 9
🟠 Mar 30 → 🚢 8
🟠 Mar 31 → 🚢 11
🟠 Apr 01 → 🚢 9
🟠 Apr 02 → 🚢 10
🟠 Apr 03 → 🚢 18
🟠 Apr 04 → 🚢 15
For context, the normal flow through Hormuz before the war as 130+.
Around 15 ships have passed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.
Here are the numbers over the last 15 days:
🔴 Mar 20 → 🚢 1
🔴 Mar 21 → 🚢 2
🔴 Mar 22 → 🚢 3
🔴 Mar 23 → 🚢 5
🔴 Mar 24 → 🚢 6
🔴 Mar 25 → 🚢 4
🔴 Mar 26 → 🚢 4
🔴 Mar 27 → 🚢 3
🟠 Mar 28 → 🚢 11
🟠 Mar 29 → 🚢 9
🟠 Mar 30 → 🚢 8
🟠 Mar 31 → 🚢 11
🟠 Apr 01 → 🚢 9
🟠 Apr 02 → 🚢 10
🟠 Apr 03 → 🚢 18
🟠 Apr 04 → 🚢 15
For context, the normal flow through Hormuz before the war as 130+.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Bond yields are surging... right when we can’t afford it. After the world printed record amounts of money during the lockdowns, we saw a historic surge in yields. Now we have entered the next inflationary crisis. But this time, there is no real ammo left…
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
This video is from March 22.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explains how higher oil prices is hurting China.
His point:
The US doesn’t rely heavily on Gulf oil, so the impact is limited. While China is a major importer so they take a big hit.
But here’s what he misses:
Rising oil prices hurts the US as well.
Oil feeds directly into inflation:
Higher fuel costs → more expensive transportation
Higher transportation → higher prices for goods
Higher energy costs → more expensive production
It all flows through the economy.
And we’re already seeing it:
Higher oil = rising inflation expectations → fewer rate cuts → tighter financial conditions
So while China may feel it more on the demand side…
The US feels it through inflation, interest rates, and markets.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explains how higher oil prices is hurting China.
His point:
The US doesn’t rely heavily on Gulf oil, so the impact is limited. While China is a major importer so they take a big hit.
But here’s what he misses:
Rising oil prices hurts the US as well.
Oil feeds directly into inflation:
Higher fuel costs → more expensive transportation
Higher transportation → higher prices for goods
Higher energy costs → more expensive production
It all flows through the economy.
And we’re already seeing it:
Higher oil = rising inflation expectations → fewer rate cuts → tighter financial conditions
So while China may feel it more on the demand side…
The US feels it through inflation, interest rates, and markets.
✍1
Optical stocks have become the hottest trade in the AI space:
Lumentum, $LITE, is up +1,137% over the last 12 months, the 2nd-best performing stock in the S&P 500.
Over the same period, Applied Optoelectronics, $AAOI, is up +551%, Coherent, $COHR, +282%, Corning, $GLW, +223%, and Fabrinet, $FN, +176%.
This marks a massive outperformance of the Nasdaq 100, which returned +23%.
These companies make optical components that use light instead of traditional copper wiring to move data inside AI data centers.
This technology has gained popularity as AI infrastructure demands faster and more efficient communication.
In early March, Nvidia, $NVDA, announced it would invest $2 billion each in Lumentum and Coherent.
Optical stocks are the latest beneficiary of the AI boom.
Lumentum, $LITE, is up +1,137% over the last 12 months, the 2nd-best performing stock in the S&P 500.
Over the same period, Applied Optoelectronics, $AAOI, is up +551%, Coherent, $COHR, +282%, Corning, $GLW, +223%, and Fabrinet, $FN, +176%.
This marks a massive outperformance of the Nasdaq 100, which returned +23%.
These companies make optical components that use light instead of traditional copper wiring to move data inside AI data centers.
This technology has gained popularity as AI infrastructure demands faster and more efficient communication.
In early March, Nvidia, $NVDA, announced it would invest $2 billion each in Lumentum and Coherent.
Optical stocks are the latest beneficiary of the AI boom.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Photo
🚨THE NEXT 15 DAYS. DAY BY DAY. BOOKMARK THIS.
📅 TOMORROW — April 6, 8 PM
→ Deadline expires. Iran rejected every deal. Denied all talks. "Locked, loaded, standing tall."
→ Trump already extended TWICE. No third extension coming.
📅 DAYS 2-3 — April 7-8
→ US strikes Iran's power grid — 80,000,000 go dark
→ Targets expanded: power plants + oil wells + Kharg Island + desalination plants
→ Iran retaliates on Saudi Aramco, UAE refineries, Kuwait infrastructure
→ Oil gaps past $160
📅 DAYS 4-5 — April 9-10
→ Iran targets Ras Tanura — LARGEST oil terminal on Earth. One hit = 6,500,000 bpd OFFLINE.
→ Houthis close Red Sea — TWO chokepoints shut. No precedent in history.
→ Oil hits $200. Physical crude hits $250+ in Asia.
📅 DAYS 6-8 — April 11-13
→ OIL CLIFF — strategic reserves EMPTY. Sanctions relief EXPIRES.
→ 10,000,000 barrels per day GONE. No replacement. No safety net.
→ Oil hits $250 — US officials ALREADY modeling this
→ Gas hits $10-12 nationally. Airlines grounding. Trucking parking.
→ Iran launches cyber attacks on US infrastructure
📅 DAYS 9-12 — April 14-17
→ Global food crisis — 30% of fertilizer transits Hormuz. Prices spike worldwide.
→ Asian economies collapse — Japan, Korea, India losing 50%+ of energy supply
→ Global recession — Goldman at 30% probability. At $300 oil it's CERTAIN.
→ S&P correction becomes crash
📅 DAYS 13-15 — April 18-20
→ ICC war crimes investigation — evidence is on camera
→ Iran nuclear breakout — 2-4 week timeline. ZERO incentive for restraint.
→ 80,000,000 people: no power, no water, no food chain, no bridges
→ Refugee crisis dwarfing Syria begins
→ US midterm politics explode — $15 gas + war crimes investigation
15 days. Every step has precedent. Every prediction has math.
The IEA called this "the greatest global energy security challenge in HISTORY."
And the worst day is TOMORROW.
Bookmark this. Come back April 20.
i'm not here to make you comfortable i'm here to make you informed.. follow if you want the real story.
📅 TOMORROW — April 6, 8 PM
→ Deadline expires. Iran rejected every deal. Denied all talks. "Locked, loaded, standing tall."
→ Trump already extended TWICE. No third extension coming.
📅 DAYS 2-3 — April 7-8
→ US strikes Iran's power grid — 80,000,000 go dark
→ Targets expanded: power plants + oil wells + Kharg Island + desalination plants
→ Iran retaliates on Saudi Aramco, UAE refineries, Kuwait infrastructure
→ Oil gaps past $160
📅 DAYS 4-5 — April 9-10
→ Iran targets Ras Tanura — LARGEST oil terminal on Earth. One hit = 6,500,000 bpd OFFLINE.
→ Houthis close Red Sea — TWO chokepoints shut. No precedent in history.
→ Oil hits $200. Physical crude hits $250+ in Asia.
📅 DAYS 6-8 — April 11-13
→ OIL CLIFF — strategic reserves EMPTY. Sanctions relief EXPIRES.
→ 10,000,000 barrels per day GONE. No replacement. No safety net.
→ Oil hits $250 — US officials ALREADY modeling this
→ Gas hits $10-12 nationally. Airlines grounding. Trucking parking.
→ Iran launches cyber attacks on US infrastructure
📅 DAYS 9-12 — April 14-17
→ Global food crisis — 30% of fertilizer transits Hormuz. Prices spike worldwide.
→ Asian economies collapse — Japan, Korea, India losing 50%+ of energy supply
→ Global recession — Goldman at 30% probability. At $300 oil it's CERTAIN.
→ S&P correction becomes crash
📅 DAYS 13-15 — April 18-20
→ ICC war crimes investigation — evidence is on camera
→ Iran nuclear breakout — 2-4 week timeline. ZERO incentive for restraint.
→ 80,000,000 people: no power, no water, no food chain, no bridges
→ Refugee crisis dwarfing Syria begins
→ US midterm politics explode — $15 gas + war crimes investigation
15 days. Every step has precedent. Every prediction has math.
The IEA called this "the greatest global energy security challenge in HISTORY."
And the worst day is TOMORROW.
Bookmark this. Come back April 20.
i'm not here to make you comfortable i'm here to make you informed.. follow if you want the real story.
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🚨THE NEXT 15 DAYS. DAY BY DAY. BOOKMARK THIS. 📅 TOMORROW — April 6, 8 PM → Deadline expires. Iran rejected every deal. Denied all talks. "Locked, loaded, standing tall." → Trump already extended TWICE. No third extension coming. 📅 DAYS 2-3 — April 7-8 →…
🚨 HERE'S EXACTLY HOW THE TRUMP-IRAN ULTIMATUM ENDS. STEP BY STEP. BOOKMARK THIS. 🚨
Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is already forming:
Step 1 ✅ Trump demands Hormuz reopened in 48 hours — Iran rejects IMMEDIATELY
Step 2 ✅ Oil past $115/barrel — Americans feel it at the pump TODAY
Step 3 ✅ Iran counter-threatens: "irreversible" destruction of regional energy infrastructure
Step 4 ⏳ Deadline passes Monday April 6 — Trump must act or lose ALL credibility
Step 5 ⏳ Strikes on civilian power plants and bridges — "power plant and bridge day"
Step 6 ⏳ Iran retaliates against Gulf energy infrastructure — Aramco, UAE terminals, Kuwait refineries
Step 7 ⏳ Oil EXPLODES past $150 — global supply chains seize
Step 8 ⏳ Gas at $6-7/gallon across America — approval ratings crater
Step 9 ⏳ European refineries shut — no Gulf crude, no fuel
Step 10 ⏳ Iran's proxy Hezbollah escalates — already hit an Israeli warship with a cruise missile
Step 11 ⏳ Multi-front regional war — Hormuz, Lebanon, Iraq
Step 12 ⏳ Trump declares victory and announces "repositioning" — the word that replaces "withdrawal"
Steps 1-3 already happened TODAY.
Steps 4-5 happen within 48 HOURS.
Steps 6-12 by end of next week.
They're showing you "tough on Iran."
They're NOT showing you that the "4-week war" is in week 6, an F-15E just fell from the sky, and the president is SCHEDULING civilian destruction by day of the week.
A friend of mine who works in energy trading told me they've had more crisis calls in the last 72 hours than in all of Q1 combined. His exact words: "Nobody has a playbook for this."
Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is already forming:
Step 1 ✅ Trump demands Hormuz reopened in 48 hours — Iran rejects IMMEDIATELY
Step 2 ✅ Oil past $115/barrel — Americans feel it at the pump TODAY
Step 3 ✅ Iran counter-threatens: "irreversible" destruction of regional energy infrastructure
Step 4 ⏳ Deadline passes Monday April 6 — Trump must act or lose ALL credibility
Step 5 ⏳ Strikes on civilian power plants and bridges — "power plant and bridge day"
Step 6 ⏳ Iran retaliates against Gulf energy infrastructure — Aramco, UAE terminals, Kuwait refineries
Step 7 ⏳ Oil EXPLODES past $150 — global supply chains seize
Step 8 ⏳ Gas at $6-7/gallon across America — approval ratings crater
Step 9 ⏳ European refineries shut — no Gulf crude, no fuel
Step 10 ⏳ Iran's proxy Hezbollah escalates — already hit an Israeli warship with a cruise missile
Step 11 ⏳ Multi-front regional war — Hormuz, Lebanon, Iraq
Step 12 ⏳ Trump declares victory and announces "repositioning" — the word that replaces "withdrawal"
Steps 1-3 already happened TODAY.
Steps 4-5 happen within 48 HOURS.
Steps 6-12 by end of next week.
They're showing you "tough on Iran."
They're NOT showing you that the "4-week war" is in week 6, an F-15E just fell from the sky, and the president is SCHEDULING civilian destruction by day of the week.
A friend of mine who works in energy trading told me they've had more crisis calls in the last 72 hours than in all of Q1 combined. His exact words: "Nobody has a playbook for this."
🔥1