The energy crisis is wreaking havoc in the African mining sector
- Mining accounts for ~20% of Africa’s total electricity consumption
- In some countries like Zambia, it’s up to 50%
- For many African countries, mining is the main source of income
The current energy crisis risks reducing African mining output and triggering a broader humanitarian crisis.
Mining output has been curtailed for years in some countries and is spreading the longer this shortage persists.
Africa is a major PGM, copper, gold, and manganese producer.
- Mining accounts for ~20% of Africa’s total electricity consumption
- In some countries like Zambia, it’s up to 50%
- For many African countries, mining is the main source of income
The current energy crisis risks reducing African mining output and triggering a broader humanitarian crisis.
Mining output has been curtailed for years in some countries and is spreading the longer this shortage persists.
Africa is a major PGM, copper, gold, and manganese producer.
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Bond yields are surging... right when we can’t afford it.
After the world printed record amounts of money during the lockdowns, we saw a historic surge in yields. Now we have entered the next inflationary crisis.
But this time, there is no real ammo left to fight it.
With debt-to-GDP levels at ~100%, raising interest rates further would directly threaten the solvency of governments... which leaves financial repression as the only viable path.
Keeping interest rates below inflation and thereby inflating the debt away to a more manageable level.
This is exactly how the US reduced its WWII debt, which was at similar debt-to-GDP levels. Sustained inflation, especially during the 70s, pushed debt-to-GDP from ~120% down to ~30%, which then allowed Volcker to raise rates to ~20% and finally kill inflation.
First you inflate the debt away, then you fight inflation...
We are at the inflation stage.... position accordingly.
After the world printed record amounts of money during the lockdowns, we saw a historic surge in yields. Now we have entered the next inflationary crisis.
But this time, there is no real ammo left to fight it.
With debt-to-GDP levels at ~100%, raising interest rates further would directly threaten the solvency of governments... which leaves financial repression as the only viable path.
Keeping interest rates below inflation and thereby inflating the debt away to a more manageable level.
This is exactly how the US reduced its WWII debt, which was at similar debt-to-GDP levels. Sustained inflation, especially during the 70s, pushed debt-to-GDP from ~120% down to ~30%, which then allowed Volcker to raise rates to ~20% and finally kill inflation.
First you inflate the debt away, then you fight inflation...
We are at the inflation stage.... position accordingly.
👀1
UBS: Current macro environment favors commodities
- Commodities hedge inflation risk
- Gold hedges geopolitical uncertainty and rising government debt
We live in volatile times, so expect elevated volatility. The recent gold/commodity selloff doesn’t negate the long-term thesis... it’s just part of the game.
- Central banks, the major gold driver, are still buying
- Supply shortages are bullish for commodities
- Copper deficit is widening
- So are uranium and silver
While predicting short-term price movements is hard, over the long term commodities have to rise.
- Commodities hedge inflation risk
- Gold hedges geopolitical uncertainty and rising government debt
We live in volatile times, so expect elevated volatility. The recent gold/commodity selloff doesn’t negate the long-term thesis... it’s just part of the game.
- Central banks, the major gold driver, are still buying
- Supply shortages are bullish for commodities
- Copper deficit is widening
- So are uranium and silver
While predicting short-term price movements is hard, over the long term commodities have to rise.
👀1
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#Neuralink. No hands. No voice. Still in control.
21 people already running their world with thought alone.
Speech gone for years… now talking again.
Try processing that for a second.
21 people already running their world with thought alone.
Speech gone for years… now talking again.
Try processing that for a second.
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🚨One month of war.
Here's what it costs at the pump.
🇵🇭 Philippines gasoline +54% | diesel +82%
🇳🇬 Nigeria +49% | +66%
🇦🇺 Australia +42% | +52%
🇺🇸 United States +30% | +41%
🇨🇦 Canada +25% | +37%
🇫🇷 France +17% | +28%
🇩🇪 Germany +17% | +31%
🇨🇳 China +10% | +11%
🇬🇧 UK +10% | +18%
🇯🇵 Japan +2.5% | +2.5%
Notice the pattern?
The poorest countries pay the most.
The most exposed pay double on diesel.
China with coal and pipelines barely moves.
Japan strategic reserves still holding.
This isn't an oil price chart.
It's a map of who prepared and who didn't.
Here's what it costs at the pump.
🇵🇭 Philippines gasoline +54% | diesel +82%
🇳🇬 Nigeria +49% | +66%
🇦🇺 Australia +42% | +52%
🇺🇸 United States +30% | +41%
🇨🇦 Canada +25% | +37%
🇫🇷 France +17% | +28%
🇩🇪 Germany +17% | +31%
🇨🇳 China +10% | +11%
🇬🇧 UK +10% | +18%
🇯🇵 Japan +2.5% | +2.5%
Notice the pattern?
The poorest countries pay the most.
The most exposed pay double on diesel.
China with coal and pipelines barely moves.
Japan strategic reserves still holding.
This isn't an oil price chart.
It's a map of who prepared and who didn't.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
$AMZN/USD H2 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
Amazon $AMZN now has THREE separate business segments that bring in more than $100 Billion per year
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING: THE US IS EXECUTING THE LARGEST MILITARY AIRLIFT SINCE THE IRAQ INVASION OF 2003. It is happening right now. Flight trackers are lighting up. Dozens of C-17 Globemaster III transports are crossing the Atlantic. All callsigns: REACH. That's…
THE BIGGEST US MILITARY AIRLIFT SINCE THE IRAQ INVASION.
It's happening right now.
While Trump says "talks are going well" —
Dozens of C-17 Globemaster IIIs have left the US east coast.
They're crossing the Atlantic as you read this.
KC-135 tankers are flying alongside them.
That combo means one thing: non-stop transatlantic flight.
This is not a training exercise.
Each C-17 carries 170,900 lbs of payload.
We're talking M1 Abrams tanks.
Bradley fighting vehicles. Strykers.
102 fully armed paratroopers per aircraft.
A second wave is already over Europe.
Heading to the eastern Mediterranean.
All REACH callsigns — USAF Air Mobility Command.
The Washington Post reported the Pentagon is preparing for WEEKS of ground operations in Iran.
Thousands of US Marines and Army paratroopers are already deploying to the Middle East.
The USS George H.W. Bush carrier was deployed April 1.
Iran's parliament speaker said it publicly:
"The enemy sends messages of negotiation while planning a ground attack."
April 6 is the ceasefire deadline.
If Iran doesn't agree — ground forces go in.
The planes are in the air now.
They land before that deadline.
"Talks are going well." ✈️
It's happening right now.
While Trump says "talks are going well" —
Dozens of C-17 Globemaster IIIs have left the US east coast.
They're crossing the Atlantic as you read this.
KC-135 tankers are flying alongside them.
That combo means one thing: non-stop transatlantic flight.
This is not a training exercise.
Each C-17 carries 170,900 lbs of payload.
We're talking M1 Abrams tanks.
Bradley fighting vehicles. Strykers.
102 fully armed paratroopers per aircraft.
A second wave is already over Europe.
Heading to the eastern Mediterranean.
All REACH callsigns — USAF Air Mobility Command.
The Washington Post reported the Pentagon is preparing for WEEKS of ground operations in Iran.
Thousands of US Marines and Army paratroopers are already deploying to the Middle East.
The USS George H.W. Bush carrier was deployed April 1.
Iran's parliament speaker said it publicly:
"The enemy sends messages of negotiation while planning a ground attack."
April 6 is the ceasefire deadline.
If Iran doesn't agree — ground forces go in.
The planes are in the air now.
They land before that deadline.
"Talks are going well." ✈️
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
WHAT HAPPENS THE NIGHT HE PULLS THE TRIGGER
Day one. Power grid gone. 90 million Iranians in darkness.
No water pumps. No hospitals. No food storage.
Day two. Kharg Island burns. That's 90% of Iran's oil exports.
TWO MILLION barrels per day vanish from world markets.
Oil hits $150. Then $200.
Every $10 rise in oil costs the global economy $250 billion.
Your gas hits $6. Maybe $8.
Your groceries cost more. Your heating bill explodes.
Iran retaliates. US bases across the region get hit. 40,000 troops.
Houthis shut down the Red Sea. Global shipping collapses.
Saudi oil fields get targeted. AGAIN. Like Abqaiq in 2019.
Gulf desalination plants go dark. UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain.
50 MILLION people without water.
You are not watching a foreign policy dispute.
You are watching the supply chain that runs your life get destroyed.
And you are scrolling past it. 🔴
Day one. Power grid gone. 90 million Iranians in darkness.
No water pumps. No hospitals. No food storage.
Day two. Kharg Island burns. That's 90% of Iran's oil exports.
TWO MILLION barrels per day vanish from world markets.
Oil hits $150. Then $200.
Every $10 rise in oil costs the global economy $250 billion.
Your gas hits $6. Maybe $8.
Your groceries cost more. Your heating bill explodes.
Iran retaliates. US bases across the region get hit. 40,000 troops.
Houthis shut down the Red Sea. Global shipping collapses.
Saudi oil fields get targeted. AGAIN. Like Abqaiq in 2019.
Gulf desalination plants go dark. UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain.
50 MILLION people without water.
You are not watching a foreign policy dispute.
You are watching the supply chain that runs your life get destroyed.
And you are scrolling past it. 🔴
🐳1
🚨🚨🚨 FINAL IRAN UPDATE BEFORE TOMORROW'S DEADLINE. READ EVERY WORD. 🚨🚨🚨
The last 72 hours changed everything.
– El País reports thousands of ADDITIONAL soldiers mobilized to the Middle East. Not drawdown. ESCALATION.
– Washington Post confirmed ground operations preparation. C-17 airlifts spotted.
– Kharg Island was already struck on March 14. The precedent is SET.
– Trump's public language shifted to "Glory be to GOD" — emotional, not strategic.
– Iran has PUBLICLY rejected every single proposal. Every back-channel. Every off-ramp.
– Brent crude at $112/barrel — up 45% YTD. Markets betting on extension.
– Wargame expert Grimble: "Almost impossible Trump was shocked by Iran's retaliation." Pentagon had scenarios READY.
– Both sides have already hit CIVILIAN water infrastructure. There are no red lines left.
– If limited strike: oil $130-150 overnight. If full scale: oil $150-200. Strait of Hormuz becomes warzone.
– Every $10 oil increase = $250,000,000,000 annual global cost.
– Full scale scenario: 90,000,000 in darkness. Water crisis. Ballistic missiles toward Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel.
The deadline is 8 PM Eastern SUNDAY. Not next week. TOMORROW 🚨
The last 72 hours changed everything.
– El País reports thousands of ADDITIONAL soldiers mobilized to the Middle East. Not drawdown. ESCALATION.
– Washington Post confirmed ground operations preparation. C-17 airlifts spotted.
– Kharg Island was already struck on March 14. The precedent is SET.
– Trump's public language shifted to "Glory be to GOD" — emotional, not strategic.
– Iran has PUBLICLY rejected every single proposal. Every back-channel. Every off-ramp.
– Brent crude at $112/barrel — up 45% YTD. Markets betting on extension.
– Wargame expert Grimble: "Almost impossible Trump was shocked by Iran's retaliation." Pentagon had scenarios READY.
– Both sides have already hit CIVILIAN water infrastructure. There are no red lines left.
– If limited strike: oil $130-150 overnight. If full scale: oil $150-200. Strait of Hormuz becomes warzone.
– Every $10 oil increase = $250,000,000,000 annual global cost.
– Full scale scenario: 90,000,000 in darkness. Water crisis. Ballistic missiles toward Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel.
The deadline is 8 PM Eastern SUNDAY. Not next week. TOMORROW 🚨
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Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
More than 40 Middle Eastern energy assets are severely damaged
Even if the war ends today, oil production won’t rebound immediately
This will take months, with further draining of inventories.
Even if the war ends today, oil production won’t rebound immediately
This will take months, with further draining of inventories.