The oil supply shock is now moving through the entire world economy

Asia is hit the hardest by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It is the largest oil importer globally, and ~84% of LNG and oil flows from the Strait were previously directed to Asia... that flow is now disrupted.

This has massive global implications.

Asia is also the world’s largest refining hub, accounting for ~40% of global refining capacity and ~50% of global fuel exports... both now under pressure.

No oil = no fuel = no exports

China, the largest fuel exporter, has already started restricting exports to protect domestic supply. As the shock persists, more countries will follow, extending restrictions beyond fuel to a wide range of critical goods.

Asia depends on oil/gas to sustain production

- ~60% of global plastic exports
- ~30% of fertilizer production
- ~20% of drug production

If this supply disruption persists, expect the world to go through a severe lockdown.

1 month in💥 The targets have changed

It's an energy war, and it's about to get worse

Trump just promised strikes on power plants.

"Extremely hard. 2 to 3 more weeks"

💣 Pipelines burning
🏭 Refineries offline
⚡ Power plants next

on Iran's entire energy system

Every destroyed pipeline is a message to Beijing.

🛢️ "China gets the majority of its oil through Hormuz"
🚢 "They should police it themselves"
✈️ "We're leaving"

Washington just handed China the world's most expensive babysitting job.

Guard Hormuz or lose your oil supply.

And while Beijing scrambles in the Middle East...Taiwan waits.

You can't run 2 crises at once.
Not even China.

That's the real game here.

America doesn't need Hormuz. It has shale.

Iran's infrastructure burns.
China gets distracted.
Taiwan gets a window.

1 war, 3 outcomes....All planned.

🚢 Gulf states consider new pipelines to avoid Strait of Hormuz.

The US is loaning 10 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to private companies to ease the oil supply crunch caused by the Iran war.

Companies have until April 6 to submit proposals. They will return the oil with additional barrels as a premium.

This follows the first batch of 45.2 million barrels already loaned on March 21, making this the largest SPR drawdown in US history.

Trump just few days ago saying "The United States is the largest oil producer in the world, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money and U.S has no energy crisis.

Trump just days ago said "The United States is the largest oil producer in the world, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money" and that the US has no energy crisis.

The same president is now drawing down emergency reserves at a historic pace.