There's the Space Satellite MegaCycle:
-> Triggered by $PL.
With $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR and others following.
Then there's the Photonics SuperCycle:
-> Triggered by $LITE and $COHR.
With $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI and others following.
One is hype over applications from Space.
The other is hype over extreme revenue and earnings growth from AI.
The latter tends to be more defensible.
-> Triggered by $PL.
With $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR and others following.
Then there's the Photonics SuperCycle:
-> Triggered by $LITE and $COHR.
With $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI and others following.
One is hype over applications from Space.
The other is hype over extreme revenue and earnings growth from AI.
The latter tends to be more defensible.
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Still one of the most mispriced pockets in the entire AI supply chain right now - $AAOI, $LWLG & $ALMU 🔥
The photonics supercycle isn’t coming anymore… it’s here.
Hyperscalers are locking up capacity years ahead and the market is still pricing these like nothing has changed.
$AAOI
Real execution mode. 800G/1.6T ramp is live, $1B+ revenue run-rate in ’26 is very much in play. Vertical integration on lasers + assembly in the US gives them a legit moat + geopolitical tailwind with Amazon & Microsoft. At ~$6.5B market cap this still looks dirt cheap compared to Asian peers trading 5-8x higher on similar optics exposure. I’ve been saying the ATM finish + volume inflection will be the trigger.
$LWLG
Pure high-conviction optionality. Their Perkinamine polymer directly fixes the power/heat walls that are killing traditional silicon photonics. Tower + GlobalFoundries PDK integrations are de-risking everything. Sub-$1B market cap with basically zero revenue today - this is the classic lottery-ticket name that can 5-10x on the first real design wins and CPO orders.
$ALMU
My favorite dark horse at only ~$240M market cap. Wafer-scale III-V on large-diameter silicon gives real cost and yield advantages for AI optics, hyperscalers and defense. Extremely early, but structurally set up for violent re-rating on just one or two solid design-ins.
Together they cover the full stack: transceivers, advanced modulators/materials, and scalable manufacturing - exactly what the post-2026 AI buildout is going to need.
TAM measured in hundreds of billions. Current valuations bake in almost none of it.
I‘m buying every weakness.
The photonics supercycle isn’t coming anymore… it’s here.
Hyperscalers are locking up capacity years ahead and the market is still pricing these like nothing has changed.
$AAOI
Real execution mode. 800G/1.6T ramp is live, $1B+ revenue run-rate in ’26 is very much in play. Vertical integration on lasers + assembly in the US gives them a legit moat + geopolitical tailwind with Amazon & Microsoft. At ~$6.5B market cap this still looks dirt cheap compared to Asian peers trading 5-8x higher on similar optics exposure. I’ve been saying the ATM finish + volume inflection will be the trigger.
$LWLG
Pure high-conviction optionality. Their Perkinamine polymer directly fixes the power/heat walls that are killing traditional silicon photonics. Tower + GlobalFoundries PDK integrations are de-risking everything. Sub-$1B market cap with basically zero revenue today - this is the classic lottery-ticket name that can 5-10x on the first real design wins and CPO orders.
$ALMU
My favorite dark horse at only ~$240M market cap. Wafer-scale III-V on large-diameter silicon gives real cost and yield advantages for AI optics, hyperscalers and defense. Extremely early, but structurally set up for violent re-rating on just one or two solid design-ins.
Together they cover the full stack: transceivers, advanced modulators/materials, and scalable manufacturing - exactly what the post-2026 AI buildout is going to need.
TAM measured in hundreds of billions. Current valuations bake in almost none of it.
I‘m buying every weakness.
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Space stocks ranked by market cap:
$SATL ~ 721.02 Million
$BKSY ~ 1.03 Billion
$VOYG ~ 1.67 Billion
$RDW ~ 1.82 Billion
$LUNR ~ 4.44 Billion
$PL ~ 11.79 Billion
$ASTS ~ 33.96 Billion
$RKLB ~ 39.07 Billion
SpaceX IPO ~ $1.75 Trillion
I think this valuation gap will deliver insane returns in the next few months.
$SATL ~ 721.02 Million
$BKSY ~ 1.03 Billion
$VOYG ~ 1.67 Billion
$RDW ~ 1.82 Billion
$LUNR ~ 4.44 Billion
$PL ~ 11.79 Billion
$ASTS ~ 33.96 Billion
$RKLB ~ 39.07 Billion
SpaceX IPO ~ $1.75 Trillion
I think this valuation gap will deliver insane returns in the next few months.
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