$HBM $BHP $SCCO $RIO $TECK $ERO $FCX | Data center #copper usage is set to explode from 500K tonnes in 2024 to 3M tonnes by 2050.
Driven by AI, digital demand will hit 7% of total global copper by mid century, creating a 10M tonne supply gap for the 2030s.
Driven by AI, digital demand will hit 7% of total global copper by mid century, creating a 10M tonne supply gap for the 2030s.
Photonics stocks
Substrate & Equipment
• $AXTI – substrate materials exposure
• $IPGP – fiber lasers & light sources
• $IQE – advanced epitaxial wafers (InP, GaAs)
Optical Components & Systems
• $LITE – lasers & photonics components
• $COHR – diversified optical tech
• $GLW – fiber & telecom glass
• $POET – photonic integrated circuits
• $CIEN – optical networking leader
Transceiver & Interconnect
• $AAOI – optical transceivers
• $AEHR – photonics/semi testing tools
• Photonics is deep-tech infrastructure, not a short-term trend.
• As AI compute scales, optical bandwidth must scale with it.
• The highest value often sits upstream — substrates, epitaxy, fabrication yield.
• Scarcity = leverage.
Photonics today is where semiconductors were decades ago — a foundational layer quietly powering everything.
If AI, cloud, and connectivity continue expanding, photonics must expand with them.
Substrate & Equipment
• $AXTI – substrate materials exposure
• $IPGP – fiber lasers & light sources
• $IQE – advanced epitaxial wafers (InP, GaAs)
Optical Components & Systems
• $LITE – lasers & photonics components
• $COHR – diversified optical tech
• $GLW – fiber & telecom glass
• $POET – photonic integrated circuits
• $CIEN – optical networking leader
Transceiver & Interconnect
• $AAOI – optical transceivers
• $AEHR – photonics/semi testing tools
• Photonics is deep-tech infrastructure, not a short-term trend.
• As AI compute scales, optical bandwidth must scale with it.
• The highest value often sits upstream — substrates, epitaxy, fabrication yield.
• Scarcity = leverage.
Photonics today is where semiconductors were decades ago — a foundational layer quietly powering everything.
If AI, cloud, and connectivity continue expanding, photonics must expand with them.
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Monday, Mar 2 2026, 12:00 UTC time
📋 Market shock from Middle East tensions
✅ Global risk-off: equities slide, oil & gas spike, safe-haven demand rises. US futures and European stocks fell as Middle East conflict fears pushed oil and natural gas sharply higher, stoking inflation concerns. Markets saw renewed demand for safe havens: Swiss franc remained strong and yields on core government bonds rose as inflation worries overtook safe‑haven flows.
🔖 Oil, gas and inflation risks
📌 Energy squeeze could lift global inflation and shave growth. Reports warn a prolonged Iran/Strait of Hormuz disruption could boost Eurozone inflation by ~1ppt and dent GDP in major economies. European natural gas prices jumped over 20%, adding pressure to euro‑area yields and consumer price outlooks.
📋 Fixed income & FX moves
✅ Yields volatile — risk repricing intensifies. US 10‑year hit a 17‑month low earlier but core yields (Bunds, Gilts, BTPs, OATs) have rebounded as markets price higher inflation risk. Dollar strengthened on conflict headlines; euro and sterling weakened; offshore yuan fell; Swiss franc held firm.
🔖 Eurozone & UK macro: mixed but inflationary headwinds
📌 Manufacturing surprise: PMI strength vs fiscal strains. Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to its highest since mid‑2022; France, Italy, Spain, Germany showed improvement. Yet Italy missed 2025 deficit targets, pressuring BTP yields. UK: house prices unexpectedly up but mortgage approvals and borrowing trends show softness; gilt yields rose amid inflation fears and UK gas surged ~25%.
📋 Russia & energy exports
✅ Russian industry stabilising but export flows decline. Russian manufacturing contraction eased in February; LNG exports were up modestly, while pipeline gas flows to Europe fell ~2.3% YoY — relevant as Europe grapples with tighter gas markets.
🔖 Asia‑Pacific: Australia & New Zealand
📌 Domestic resilience amid global risk-off. Australian PMIs revised lower but house prices continued to rise; inflation gauge eased for first time in six months and job ads climbed. Australian shares hit record highs recently but retreated on geopolitical jitters. New Zealand markets fell and NZD weakened amid Mideast tensions.
📋 US outlook & Fed pricing
✅ Rate cuts pushed out; techs under pressure. Money markets imply the Fed could wait until September to cut; US tech stocks slid on inflation shock fears. Treasury yields edged higher as markets weigh higher commodity‑driven inflation.
🔖 Commodities & miners
📌 Precious & industrial metals steady amid volatility. Oil and gas gains drove headline moves; copper held steady, silver trimmed gains. Miners flagged production scale‑up plans (e.g., copper) but face input/price uncertainty.
Bottom line: Geopolitical risk from the Middle East is the dominant near‑term driver — lifting energy prices, repricing sovereign yields, strengthening safe‑haven currencies (CHF, USD) and pressuring global equities. Watch oil/gas flows, Eurozone inflation reads, central bank guidance (Fed/BoE/ECB) and Italy fiscal developments for next market moves.
📋 Market shock from Middle East tensions
✅ Global risk-off: equities slide, oil & gas spike, safe-haven demand rises. US futures and European stocks fell as Middle East conflict fears pushed oil and natural gas sharply higher, stoking inflation concerns. Markets saw renewed demand for safe havens: Swiss franc remained strong and yields on core government bonds rose as inflation worries overtook safe‑haven flows.
🔖 Oil, gas and inflation risks
📌 Energy squeeze could lift global inflation and shave growth. Reports warn a prolonged Iran/Strait of Hormuz disruption could boost Eurozone inflation by ~1ppt and dent GDP in major economies. European natural gas prices jumped over 20%, adding pressure to euro‑area yields and consumer price outlooks.
📋 Fixed income & FX moves
✅ Yields volatile — risk repricing intensifies. US 10‑year hit a 17‑month low earlier but core yields (Bunds, Gilts, BTPs, OATs) have rebounded as markets price higher inflation risk. Dollar strengthened on conflict headlines; euro and sterling weakened; offshore yuan fell; Swiss franc held firm.
🔖 Eurozone & UK macro: mixed but inflationary headwinds
📌 Manufacturing surprise: PMI strength vs fiscal strains. Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to its highest since mid‑2022; France, Italy, Spain, Germany showed improvement. Yet Italy missed 2025 deficit targets, pressuring BTP yields. UK: house prices unexpectedly up but mortgage approvals and borrowing trends show softness; gilt yields rose amid inflation fears and UK gas surged ~25%.
📋 Russia & energy exports
✅ Russian industry stabilising but export flows decline. Russian manufacturing contraction eased in February; LNG exports were up modestly, while pipeline gas flows to Europe fell ~2.3% YoY — relevant as Europe grapples with tighter gas markets.
🔖 Asia‑Pacific: Australia & New Zealand
📌 Domestic resilience amid global risk-off. Australian PMIs revised lower but house prices continued to rise; inflation gauge eased for first time in six months and job ads climbed. Australian shares hit record highs recently but retreated on geopolitical jitters. New Zealand markets fell and NZD weakened amid Mideast tensions.
📋 US outlook & Fed pricing
✅ Rate cuts pushed out; techs under pressure. Money markets imply the Fed could wait until September to cut; US tech stocks slid on inflation shock fears. Treasury yields edged higher as markets weigh higher commodity‑driven inflation.
🔖 Commodities & miners
📌 Precious & industrial metals steady amid volatility. Oil and gas gains drove headline moves; copper held steady, silver trimmed gains. Miners flagged production scale‑up plans (e.g., copper) but face input/price uncertainty.
Bottom line: Geopolitical risk from the Middle East is the dominant near‑term driver — lifting energy prices, repricing sovereign yields, strengthening safe‑haven currencies (CHF, USD) and pressuring global equities. Watch oil/gas flows, Eurozone inflation reads, central bank guidance (Fed/BoE/ECB) and Italy fiscal developments for next market moves.
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
❗️The movement of ships in the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped - MarineTraffic
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Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
Oil vs commodities is at historic lows.
- To reach the mean, oil would need to outperform by ~2x
- To reach the 2007 top, it would need to outperform by ~4x
There is no commodity bull market without oil.
Oil still has the best risk/reward setup.
- To reach the mean, oil would need to outperform by ~2x
- To reach the 2007 top, it would need to outperform by ~4x
There is no commodity bull market without oil.
Oil still has the best risk/reward setup.
JPMorgan: Gold to hit 8k.
According to their estimates:
- Private investors hold a 3% gold allocation
- If this were to rise to 4.6%, gold would hit 8k
Now compare that to what others are suggesting:
- Morgan Stanley: considers a 20% gold allocation
- Ray Dalio: recommends a 5-15% gold allocation
- Bank of America: sees 30% as reasonable
If allocations move even partially toward those levels, just imagine what will happen to the price of #gold
According to their estimates:
- Private investors hold a 3% gold allocation
- If this were to rise to 4.6%, gold would hit 8k
Now compare that to what others are suggesting:
- Morgan Stanley: considers a 20% gold allocation
- Ray Dalio: recommends a 5-15% gold allocation
- Bank of America: sees 30% as reasonable
If allocations move even partially toward those levels, just imagine what will happen to the price of #gold
Cameco $CCJ signs a $2.6B long term deal to supply India’s Department of Atomic Energy with 22M lbs of #uranium.
Running 2027 to 2035, the agreement supports India’s 100GW nuclear goal and marks a strategic reset in Canada and India energy ties.
Running 2027 to 2035, the agreement supports India’s 100GW nuclear goal and marks a strategic reset in Canada and India energy ties.
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
Gas market faces bigger impact than oil on Hormuz disruption, says Goldman ⚠️
📈 European gas prices could surge more than 130% to €74/MWh if strait shut for a one month
📈 Prices would rally to €100 for a two-month halt
There is less spare capacity in gas than oil
📈 European gas prices could surge more than 130% to €74/MWh if strait shut for a one month
📈 Prices would rally to €100 for a two-month halt
There is less spare capacity in gas than oil
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
$CVX $XOM $OXY $COP $HP $WHD $NBR | QatarEnergy halts LNG production following Iranian drone strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities.
With 20% of global supply offline and the Strait of Hormuz transit plunging 86%, Asian LNG benchmarks have surged 41% in 24 hours.
With 20% of global supply offline and the Strait of Hormuz transit plunging 86%, Asian LNG benchmarks have surged 41% in 24 hours.
The Netherlands cancelled the 36% tax on unrealized gains after huge public protests.
Most people don't realize what's happening here: the Netherlands has had a wealth tax since 2001.
- They assume 7.78% fictitious returns on investments >51k.
- This is taxed at 36%, no matter if you have incurred losses.
- The new proposal would “just” tax real capital gains at 36%.
Wealth taxes or unrealized capital gains taxes are led by the EU. 80% of countries with a wealth tax are EU members.
Just like income tax was first paid in only a few countries, then by just a few percent of the population, and now it is common practice, the EU is slowly setting a new standard for wealth taxation.
Most people don't realize what's happening here: the Netherlands has had a wealth tax since 2001.
- They assume 7.78% fictitious returns on investments >51k.
- This is taxed at 36%, no matter if you have incurred losses.
- The new proposal would “just” tax real capital gains at 36%.
Wealth taxes or unrealized capital gains taxes are led by the EU. 80% of countries with a wealth tax are EU members.
Just like income tax was first paid in only a few countries, then by just a few percent of the population, and now it is common practice, the EU is slowly setting a new standard for wealth taxation.
👀1
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🚨🇶🇦Qatar has halted LNG production after two drones have reportedly hit key production facilities.
While Qatar Energy has not released specific data regarding the damage suffered at its infrastructure, the suspension suggests this might be substantial.
While Qatar Energy has not released specific data regarding the damage suffered at its infrastructure, the suspension suggests this might be substantial.
Stifel raises $MU Micron price target to $550 and reiterates Buy.
Analysts cite a memory pricing surge and "software like" gross margins in the 70% range. Stifel believes 2026 consensus estimates remain too low as AI demand outstrips supply.
Analysts cite a memory pricing surge and "software like" gross margins in the 70% range. Stifel believes 2026 consensus estimates remain too low as AI demand outstrips supply.