Saturday, Feb 21 2026, 12:30 UTC time
📋 Latest Important Headlines — Market & Macro Snapshot
✅ US Tariff Ruling & Political Fallout
🔖 📌 Supreme Court rejects/limits Trump's global tariffs — Ruling upends previous tariff framework; markets digest implications for trade policy, corporate refunds and supply-chain costs. Expect legal and political wrangling as the administration considers a new 10% levy and investors reposition for tariff uncertainty.
📋 FX & Canada
✅ 🔖 📌 Canadian dollar posts weekly decline — CAD slipped as markets weighed the US tariff ruling and mixed domestic data. Canada’s budget deficit narrowed marginally in November, providing limited near-term fiscal relief.
📋 US Economy & Markets
✅ 🔖 📌 Growth outlook bright — Portfolio manager Bessent told Fox News the US economy can grow at least 3.5% in 2026, supporting risk assets and growth-sensitive FX.
✅ 🔖 📌 Stocks resilient despite geopolitical noise — Equities rose as traders looked past tariff and Iran-related uncertainties; focus shifts to upcoming PPI and corporate earnings (Nvidia in spotlight).
📋 Corporate & Data Watch
✅ 🔖 📌 Nvidia earnings & PPI on deck — Key catalysts for risk appetite next week: Nvidia results and US Producer Price Index, which could drive tech stocks and USD moves.
📋 Geopolitics — Iran
✅ 🔖 📌 Iran uncertainty remains a market risk — Iran-related headlines continue to add premium to safe-haven flows; monitor oil and JPY/CHF for safe-haven dynamics.
📋 Brazil
✅ 🔖 📌 Ibovespa hits historic high — Brazilian equities rally, reflecting local sentiment and commodity-price support; positive for BRL and EM risk flows.
📋 Investor Takeaway
✅ 🔖 📌 Positioning themes — Tariff uncertainty and geopolitics favor selective risk hedges and monitoring PPI/earnings. FX: USD & safe-havens may gain on shock; CAD and BRL sensitive to trade and commodity moves.
Actionables: Watch next week's Nvidia earnings, US PPI, follow tariff policy developments, and monitor Canada budget data and Ibovespa momentum for FX and equity signals.
📋 Latest Important Headlines — Market & Macro Snapshot
✅ US Tariff Ruling & Political Fallout
🔖 📌 Supreme Court rejects/limits Trump's global tariffs — Ruling upends previous tariff framework; markets digest implications for trade policy, corporate refunds and supply-chain costs. Expect legal and political wrangling as the administration considers a new 10% levy and investors reposition for tariff uncertainty.
📋 FX & Canada
✅ 🔖 📌 Canadian dollar posts weekly decline — CAD slipped as markets weighed the US tariff ruling and mixed domestic data. Canada’s budget deficit narrowed marginally in November, providing limited near-term fiscal relief.
📋 US Economy & Markets
✅ 🔖 📌 Growth outlook bright — Portfolio manager Bessent told Fox News the US economy can grow at least 3.5% in 2026, supporting risk assets and growth-sensitive FX.
✅ 🔖 📌 Stocks resilient despite geopolitical noise — Equities rose as traders looked past tariff and Iran-related uncertainties; focus shifts to upcoming PPI and corporate earnings (Nvidia in spotlight).
📋 Corporate & Data Watch
✅ 🔖 📌 Nvidia earnings & PPI on deck — Key catalysts for risk appetite next week: Nvidia results and US Producer Price Index, which could drive tech stocks and USD moves.
📋 Geopolitics — Iran
✅ 🔖 📌 Iran uncertainty remains a market risk — Iran-related headlines continue to add premium to safe-haven flows; monitor oil and JPY/CHF for safe-haven dynamics.
📋 Brazil
✅ 🔖 📌 Ibovespa hits historic high — Brazilian equities rally, reflecting local sentiment and commodity-price support; positive for BRL and EM risk flows.
📋 Investor Takeaway
✅ 🔖 📌 Positioning themes — Tariff uncertainty and geopolitics favor selective risk hedges and monitoring PPI/earnings. FX: USD & safe-havens may gain on shock; CAD and BRL sensitive to trade and commodity moves.
Actionables: Watch next week's Nvidia earnings, US PPI, follow tariff policy developments, and monitor Canada budget data and Ibovespa momentum for FX and equity signals.
Pakistan Finance Minister Mohammad Aurangzeb met U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington to discuss boosting trade and investment, highlighting IT, mining, minerals, and energy sectors.
#PakistanUS #Trade
#PakistanUS #Trade
Bank of America: #Uranium supply deficits are set to surge.
- By 2035, uranium supply is projected to fall ~20%
- Over the same period, demand is expected to rise ~20%
- That gap implies a ~50 million lb annual deficit
Put differently:
The market needs the equivalent of ~3 of the world’s largest uranium mines to come online within the next decade.
The problem:
- It takes ~20 years from exploration to first production
- Those mines do not exist, and even if discovered tomorrow, they wouldn’t arrive in time
The uranium supply–demand model is structurally broken.
- By 2035, uranium supply is projected to fall ~20%
- Over the same period, demand is expected to rise ~20%
- That gap implies a ~50 million lb annual deficit
Put differently:
The market needs the equivalent of ~3 of the world’s largest uranium mines to come online within the next decade.
The problem:
- It takes ~20 years from exploration to first production
- Those mines do not exist, and even if discovered tomorrow, they wouldn’t arrive in time
The uranium supply–demand model is structurally broken.
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$RCAT $PLTR $KTOS $UMAC $DPRO $ONDS | Secretary of War Pete Hegseth: "The president announced 1.5 trillion dollars for our defense spending in fiscal year 2027, that is a message to the rest of the world."
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$IREN $CLSK $CIFR $BITF $WULF $CRWV | Sam Altman on energy as AI’s limiting factor: "Eventually the cost of AI will converge to the cost of energy. In terms of strategic investments for the U.S., I can’t think of anything more important than energy."
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Bigger Than Countries💥
The Trading Houses Moving 2 Billion Tonnes of #Commodities
When people talk about commodities, they often picture producers.
Saudi aramco, Rio Tinto, ExxonMobil and Shell.
But the system runs on a different layer.
Merchants!
The firms that finance, store, blend, insure, hedge, and physically deliver the world’s commodities.
These firms are the shock absorbers of the commodity system.
When markets break (wars, sanctions, droughts, refinery outages) they reroute flows and keep supply moving.
The next time you see a commodity price spike, ask a different question.
Which trader is holding the barrels, the ships, and the inventory when everyone else panics?
#oott #energy #metals
The Trading Houses Moving 2 Billion Tonnes of #Commodities
When people talk about commodities, they often picture producers.
Saudi aramco, Rio Tinto, ExxonMobil and Shell.
But the system runs on a different layer.
Merchants!
The firms that finance, store, blend, insure, hedge, and physically deliver the world’s commodities.
These firms are the shock absorbers of the commodity system.
When markets break (wars, sanctions, droughts, refinery outages) they reroute flows and keep supply moving.
The next time you see a commodity price spike, ask a different question.
Which trader is holding the barrels, the ships, and the inventory when everyone else panics?
#oott #energy #metals
THE AGENTIC AI SECURITY CHEAT SHEET
The selloff in cybersecurity after Anthropic announced Claude Code Security is a perfect example of the market reacting to a headline instead of the actual product.
This is what the real security stack looks like:
Identity & Access (who/what is allowed to act in production)
• $ZS controls agent access & traffic across apps + networks
• $OKTA manages identity & access for humans + machine agents
Endpoint & Workload Security (what runs on machines)
• $S protects the machines & workloads agents run on
• $CRWD is the interactive response layer for agents across endpoints & cloud workloads
Data Protection & Recovery (what must be protected after compromise)
• $RBRK is the “undo button” for AI agents when things go wrong
Network & Edge Security (how attacks move through systems)
• $NET gatekeeper of agentic AI traffic on the modern internet
• $FTNT secures AI traffic moving inside enterprise networks
• $PANW coordinates security across network, cloud & SecOps
• $AKAM protects applications & APIs at the edge where traffic hits first
Cloud Runtime & Vulnerability Exposure (what is exploitable in production)
• $RPD protects cloud workloads at runtime as deployments scale
• $TENB maps & prioritizes exploitable vulnerabilities across live assets & cloud
Security Operations & Observability (how incidents are detected & acted on)
• $DDOG provides real-time visibility into the infrastructure agents run on
• $DT provides deep runtime visibility into applications & APIs agents interact with
Claude Code Security sits at the application security layer scanning code for vulnerabilities and suggesting patches for human review. It's a useful feature but represents a VERY small slice of one layer of the broader security stack.
AI doesn’t replace cybersecurity but will actually expand the attack surface.
The selloff in cybersecurity after Anthropic announced Claude Code Security is a perfect example of the market reacting to a headline instead of the actual product.
This is what the real security stack looks like:
Identity & Access (who/what is allowed to act in production)
• $ZS controls agent access & traffic across apps + networks
• $OKTA manages identity & access for humans + machine agents
Endpoint & Workload Security (what runs on machines)
• $S protects the machines & workloads agents run on
• $CRWD is the interactive response layer for agents across endpoints & cloud workloads
Data Protection & Recovery (what must be protected after compromise)
• $RBRK is the “undo button” for AI agents when things go wrong
Network & Edge Security (how attacks move through systems)
• $NET gatekeeper of agentic AI traffic on the modern internet
• $FTNT secures AI traffic moving inside enterprise networks
• $PANW coordinates security across network, cloud & SecOps
• $AKAM protects applications & APIs at the edge where traffic hits first
Cloud Runtime & Vulnerability Exposure (what is exploitable in production)
• $RPD protects cloud workloads at runtime as deployments scale
• $TENB maps & prioritizes exploitable vulnerabilities across live assets & cloud
Security Operations & Observability (how incidents are detected & acted on)
• $DDOG provides real-time visibility into the infrastructure agents run on
• $DT provides deep runtime visibility into applications & APIs agents interact with
Claude Code Security sits at the application security layer scanning code for vulnerabilities and suggesting patches for human review. It's a useful feature but represents a VERY small slice of one layer of the broader security stack.
AI doesn’t replace cybersecurity but will actually expand the attack surface.
POWER IS A REAL BOTTLENECK FOR AI
Global data center electricity demand is projected to roughly double by 2030 as AI clusters push usage toward 1,000+ TWh and a growing share of total grid load.
$NEE NextEra Energy - Renewable utility leader
$SO Southern Company - Sun Belt nuclear utility
$DUK Duke Energy - Carolinas load growth
$CEG Constellation Energy - Nuclear baseload powerhouse
$AEP American Electric Power - Transmission grid builder
$VST Vistra - Merchant power generator
$D Dominion Energy - East Coast regulated utility
Global data center electricity demand is projected to roughly double by 2030 as AI clusters push usage toward 1,000+ TWh and a growing share of total grid load.
$NEE NextEra Energy - Renewable utility leader
$SO Southern Company - Sun Belt nuclear utility
$DUK Duke Energy - Carolinas load growth
$CEG Constellation Energy - Nuclear baseload powerhouse
$AEP American Electric Power - Transmission grid builder
$VST Vistra - Merchant power generator
$D Dominion Energy - East Coast regulated utility
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🚨 Iran–US Nuclear Talks Shift
Iran says the US accepted its red line: enrichment continues.
Talks now focus on:
• Level of enrichment
• Centrifuge numbers
• Facility locations
No full dismantlement.
But here’s the backdrop.
If diplomacy fails, the US doesn’t need Gulf bases.
Long-range strikes. Tanker bridges. Carrier groups. B-2s.
The military option exists.
Now the market watches which path wins.
source : aitelli
#Iran
Iran says the US accepted its red line: enrichment continues.
Talks now focus on:
• Level of enrichment
• Centrifuge numbers
• Facility locations
No full dismantlement.
But here’s the backdrop.
If diplomacy fails, the US doesn’t need Gulf bases.
Long-range strikes. Tanker bridges. Carrier groups. B-2s.
The military option exists.
Now the market watches which path wins.
source : aitelli
#Iran
📊 Top 10 African Economies (1980 → 2026)
The growth is structural.
🇿🇦 South Africa $445B
🇪🇬 Egypt $399B
🇳🇬 Nigeria $354B
🇩🇿 Algeria $285B
But this isn’t just GDP.
It’s resource leverage.
Africa holds:
🛢 Major oil & gas reserves. Nigeria, Algeria, Angola
🥇 Gold. Ghana, South Africa
🔋 Copper & cobalt. DRC
⚛️ Uranium. Namibia, Niger
🧱 Phosphates. Morocco
🪨 Lithium & critical minerals emerging
GDP growth + resource abundance = export power.
The next decade isn’t just about consumption growth.
It’s about who monetizes commodities into infrastructure, refining, and value-added exports.
Africa is not short resources.
The question is execution.
#oott #metals #energy #Africa
The growth is structural.
🇿🇦 South Africa $445B
🇪🇬 Egypt $399B
🇳🇬 Nigeria $354B
🇩🇿 Algeria $285B
But this isn’t just GDP.
It’s resource leverage.
Africa holds:
🛢 Major oil & gas reserves. Nigeria, Algeria, Angola
🥇 Gold. Ghana, South Africa
🔋 Copper & cobalt. DRC
⚛️ Uranium. Namibia, Niger
🧱 Phosphates. Morocco
🪨 Lithium & critical minerals emerging
GDP growth + resource abundance = export power.
The next decade isn’t just about consumption growth.
It’s about who monetizes commodities into infrastructure, refining, and value-added exports.
Africa is not short resources.
The question is execution.
#oott #metals #energy #Africa
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The US and its allies are moving to counter China’s rare-earth dominance.
- The US plans to create a preferential trade zone with price floors
- Members would form a critical-minerals trading bloc
- The goal: guaranteed access to rare earths and other strategic materials
This is a big deal for the rare-earth sector.
The main constraint on non-China production has always been pricing.
China undercut Western producers for years through state subsidies and weaker environmental constraints, creating a massive cost advantage.
For a long time, the West was happy to let China do the “dirty work.”
That changed once it became clear China could weaponize access to rare earths, threatening everything from AI supply chains to defense systems.
Now the US is scrambling to reverse that dependency.
By setting price floors above Chinese levels, the US is effectively re-introducing profitability into a sector that has been largely insolvent outside China.
That changes the investment case entirely.
- The US plans to create a preferential trade zone with price floors
- Members would form a critical-minerals trading bloc
- The goal: guaranteed access to rare earths and other strategic materials
This is a big deal for the rare-earth sector.
The main constraint on non-China production has always been pricing.
China undercut Western producers for years through state subsidies and weaker environmental constraints, creating a massive cost advantage.
For a long time, the West was happy to let China do the “dirty work.”
That changed once it became clear China could weaponize access to rare earths, threatening everything from AI supply chains to defense systems.
Now the US is scrambling to reverse that dependency.
By setting price floors above Chinese levels, the US is effectively re-introducing profitability into a sector that has been largely insolvent outside China.
That changes the investment case entirely.
Smaller
Lower grade
Harder to permit
That’s the reality of most new copper discoveries compared to giants like Collahuasi and Escondida.
But supply isn’t dead.
Undeveloped projects exist. What’s needed is faster permitting, political clarity, and capital willing to move before the deficit hits.
For copper exposure:
• McEwen Mining Inc. | TSX:MUX
• Foran Mining Corporation | TSX:FOM
• ATEX Resources Inc. | TSXV:ATX
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
#copper #Energy #mining
Lower grade
Harder to permit
That’s the reality of most new copper discoveries compared to giants like Collahuasi and Escondida.
But supply isn’t dead.
Undeveloped projects exist. What’s needed is faster permitting, political clarity, and capital willing to move before the deficit hits.
For copper exposure:
• McEwen Mining Inc. | TSX:MUX
• Foran Mining Corporation | TSX:FOM
• ATEX Resources Inc. | TSXV:ATX
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
#copper #Energy #mining
🥇 Russia’s Gold Holdings Slip as Prices Hit Records
Russia’s central bank gold reserves just dropped to ~74.5m ounces.
Small in absolute terms.
But timing matters.
Gold is at record highs.
Moscow trims holdings.
Why?
• Liquidity needs under sanctions?
• Portfolio rebalancing?
• FX management via gold monetization?
Russia has been a structural gold buyer for years.
A reversal, even modest, raises questions.
When prices spike and a sanctioned central bank reduces holdings, it’s rarely random.
Watch flows, not headlines.
#Russia #gold
Russia’s central bank gold reserves just dropped to ~74.5m ounces.
Small in absolute terms.
But timing matters.
Gold is at record highs.
Moscow trims holdings.
Why?
• Liquidity needs under sanctions?
• Portfolio rebalancing?
• FX management via gold monetization?
Russia has been a structural gold buyer for years.
A reversal, even modest, raises questions.
When prices spike and a sanctioned central bank reduces holdings, it’s rarely random.
Watch flows, not headlines.
#Russia #gold