#Silver deficits are piling up.
- Over the past 5 years, the cumulative deficit totals ~800 m oz
- That is equivalent to roughly 1 year of global silver mine supply
- Over the past decade, industrial demand has surged by ~20% to ~67% of total demand
Despite all the paper shorting, the silver market remains in deficit.
- Over the past 5 years, the cumulative deficit totals ~800 m oz
- That is equivalent to roughly 1 year of global silver mine supply
- Over the past decade, industrial demand has surged by ~20% to ~67% of total demand
Despite all the paper shorting, the silver market remains in deficit.
Surging US copper inventories are draining #copper from the rest of the world.
Rising tariff fears have distorted trade flows:
- Higher tariff risk has driven copper premiums sharply higher
- This triggered a surge in COMEX inventories
- In 2025, US copper imports were 2x the 2021–24 average
- Including off-exchange stockpiles, the US now holds ~1 million tonnes of copper
That amount is equivalent to the annual output of the world’s largest copper mine , effectively removed from the global market.
Importantly, this copper is unlikely to flow back out.
With the launch of Project Vault, a critical mineral stockpile that includes copper, the US stockpiles are unlikely to flood the market. This mirrors the Cold War era, when the US held ~10 months of copper demand, vs ~7 months today.
Critical mineral stockpiling adds a new, persistent source of demand to a market that is already structurally tight.
Rising tariff fears have distorted trade flows:
- Higher tariff risk has driven copper premiums sharply higher
- This triggered a surge in COMEX inventories
- In 2025, US copper imports were 2x the 2021–24 average
- Including off-exchange stockpiles, the US now holds ~1 million tonnes of copper
That amount is equivalent to the annual output of the world’s largest copper mine , effectively removed from the global market.
Importantly, this copper is unlikely to flow back out.
With the launch of Project Vault, a critical mineral stockpile that includes copper, the US stockpiles are unlikely to flood the market. This mirrors the Cold War era, when the US held ~10 months of copper demand, vs ~7 months today.
Critical mineral stockpiling adds a new, persistent source of demand to a market that is already structurally tight.
#tradewar
❌ 🇺🇸 The US Supreme Court declared Donald Trump's trade tariffs illegal!
➤ The court ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his powers, citing the law on emergency measures for imposing global tariffs.
➤ This applies to both "reciprocal" and targeted import tariffs.
➤ The US presidential administration justified some of the tariffs by the fight against fentanyl trafficking.
➤ The decision effectively allows for the demand for the return of more than $150b of already collected tariffs — this is a serious risk for the US budget.
➤ Hundreds of lawsuits demanding the return of paid tariffs remain in the courts.
➤ The Supreme Court has not yet considered the question of who exactly will receive compensation.
➤ The court ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his powers, citing the law on emergency measures for imposing global tariffs.
➤ This applies to both "reciprocal" and targeted import tariffs.
➤ The US presidential administration justified some of the tariffs by the fight against fentanyl trafficking.
➤ The decision effectively allows for the demand for the return of more than $150b of already collected tariffs — this is a serious risk for the US budget.
➤ Hundreds of lawsuits demanding the return of paid tariffs remain in the courts.
➤ The Supreme Court has not yet considered the question of who exactly will receive compensation.
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🇺🇸 US macroeconomic data:
▪️ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector (Feb)
FACT: 51.2
FORECAST: 52.4
PREVIOUS.: 52.4
▪️ Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global (Feb)
FACT: 52.3
PREVIOUS.: 53.0
▪️ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the services sector (Feb)
FACT: 52.3
FORECAST: 53.0
PREVIOUS.: 52.7
▪️ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector (Feb)
FACT: 51.2
FORECAST: 52.4
PREVIOUS.: 52.4
▪️ Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global (Feb)
FACT: 52.3
PREVIOUS.: 53.0
▪️ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the services sector (Feb)
FACT: 52.3
FORECAST: 53.0
PREVIOUS.: 52.7
🌍 Africa’s Baseload Reality
This map tells the real story of African power.
North Africa: Gas-to-power anchored to large reserves.
West Africa:Gas corridor forming around offshore discoveries.
East Africa: Hydro + geothermal backbone emerging.
Southern Africa: Coal-heavy. Aging fleet. Limited diversification.
Hydropower potential remains largely untapped.
Gas is expanding.
Nuclear is minimal.
Africa holds resources.
But firm baseload infrastructure is uneven and fragmented.
The opportunity is not just generation.
It is grid integration, gas monetization, and cross-border power corridors.
#oott #gas #Africa
This map tells the real story of African power.
North Africa: Gas-to-power anchored to large reserves.
West Africa:Gas corridor forming around offshore discoveries.
East Africa: Hydro + geothermal backbone emerging.
Southern Africa: Coal-heavy. Aging fleet. Limited diversification.
Hydropower potential remains largely untapped.
Gas is expanding.
Nuclear is minimal.
Africa holds resources.
But firm baseload infrastructure is uneven and fragmented.
The opportunity is not just generation.
It is grid integration, gas monetization, and cross-border power corridors.
#oott #gas #Africa
⚡ Cuba Without Oil
Power Collapses
When oil deliveries stop, electricity supply falls.
Daily available power dropped sharply once crude inflows dried up.
Generation slipped from ~1,450 MW toward ~1,200 MW in weeks.
Cuba’s grid is oil-dependent.
No barrels. No baseload.
This is what energy insecurity looks like in real time.
Oil is not just export revenue.
It is grid stability.
#oott #Cuba
Power Collapses
When oil deliveries stop, electricity supply falls.
Daily available power dropped sharply once crude inflows dried up.
Generation slipped from ~1,450 MW toward ~1,200 MW in weeks.
Cuba’s grid is oil-dependent.
No barrels. No baseload.
This is what energy insecurity looks like in real time.
Oil is not just export revenue.
It is grid stability.
#oott #Cuba
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
#tradewar ❌ 🇺🇸 The US Supreme Court declared Donald Trump's trade tariffs illegal! ➤ The court ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his powers, citing the law on emergency measures for imposing global tariffs. ➤ This applies to both "reciprocal" and targeted…
$SPY $QQQ $SPX $BTC $ETH | The Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s IEEPA based tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, citing a lack of clear Congressional authority.
The decision jeopardizes $300B in annual revenue and may trigger $175B in refunds.
The decision jeopardizes $300B in annual revenue and may trigger $175B in refunds.
Jeff Currie: Oil and metals are substantially underinvested and have significant upside.
- There is no oil supply glut
- Oil on water is largely a function of sanctions
- Disruptions at export terminals and a US winter storm have supported prices
Geopolitical risks are rising across the board, leading to hoarding across all commodities... adding demand on already tight markets
We are witnessing a rotation away from the tech-led “new economy” and toward the asset-heavy industries of the old economy.
This is reminiscent of the surge that followed the collapse of the dot-com bubble.
We have entered the age of commodities.
- There is no oil supply glut
- Oil on water is largely a function of sanctions
- Disruptions at export terminals and a US winter storm have supported prices
Geopolitical risks are rising across the board, leading to hoarding across all commodities... adding demand on already tight markets
We are witnessing a rotation away from the tech-led “new economy” and toward the asset-heavy industries of the old economy.
This is reminiscent of the surge that followed the collapse of the dot-com bubble.
We have entered the age of commodities.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
#SILVER #XAG/USD H2 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi @Hawk_trading_bot …
#SILVER #XAG/USD H2 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
Silver volatility can move fast. Leverage magnifies it.
Trade commodities with up to 250x leverage ➡️ gains.trade/trading#XAG-USD
Silver volatility can move fast. Leverage magnifies it.
Trade commodities with up to 250x leverage ➡️ gains.trade/trading#XAG-USD
UBS: #Silver deficits for 2026 will be ~300 m oz.
- It would be the 6th consecutive year of a silver deficit
- That would be ~2.5x the 2025 deficit
- Or roughly ~40% of global mine production
The physical market remains extremely tight.
- It would be the 6th consecutive year of a silver deficit
- That would be ~2.5x the 2025 deficit
- Or roughly ~40% of global mine production
The physical market remains extremely tight.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
$SPY $QQQ $SPX $BTC $ETH | The Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s IEEPA based tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, citing a lack of clear Congressional authority. The decision jeopardizes $300B in annual revenue and may trigger $175B in refunds.
• The Supreme Court's decision is a disgrace.
• I have a backup plan for tariffs after this decision.
• I have to do something about the ships.
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Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
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🚨 20% Of Global Oil Flows Through One Narrow Strait.
Iran’s Drills Put Hormuz Back In Focus.
Roughly 1 in every 5 barrels consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Now Iran’s latest military drills in the area are reminding markets how concentrated global energy flows really are.
🌍 The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to global markets.
It is the export artery for:
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE
• Kuwait
• Iraq
• Qatar
• #Iran
A similar share of LNG exports, especially from Qatar, also transits the strait.
There is no easy replacement route for most of those barrels.
🛢️ The strait has never been fully closed.
But every escalation involving Iran immediately triggers:
• Higher insurance premiums
• Shipping risk repricing
• Oil risk premium
Even the threat of disruption can lift prices several dollars per barrel.
A sustained interruption could cause a much sharper spike, especially if tankers or export terminals are targeted.
#oott
Iran’s Drills Put Hormuz Back In Focus.
Roughly 1 in every 5 barrels consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Now Iran’s latest military drills in the area are reminding markets how concentrated global energy flows really are.
🌍 The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to global markets.
It is the export artery for:
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE
• Kuwait
• Iraq
• Qatar
• #Iran
A similar share of LNG exports, especially from Qatar, also transits the strait.
There is no easy replacement route for most of those barrels.
🛢️ The strait has never been fully closed.
But every escalation involving Iran immediately triggers:
• Higher insurance premiums
• Shipping risk repricing
• Oil risk premium
Even the threat of disruption can lift prices several dollars per barrel.
A sustained interruption could cause a much sharper spike, especially if tankers or export terminals are targeted.
#oott
🔥 The US could secure a 60-day stockpile of key battery minerals for under $1 billion.
Total cost in 2026: $991 million
Breakdown:
• Lithium: $416m
• Nickel: $272m
• Cobalt: $255m
• Others (graphite, manganese, coke): marginal
In the context of a $27T economy…
#Energy transition security for less than $1B.
That’s not a cost problem.
That’s a policy choice.
If supply chains are strategic, why aren’t we building buffers now?
#battery #minerals
Total cost in 2026: $991 million
Breakdown:
• Lithium: $416m
• Nickel: $272m
• Cobalt: $255m
• Others (graphite, manganese, coke): marginal
In the context of a $27T economy…
#Energy transition security for less than $1B.
That’s not a cost problem.
That’s a policy choice.
If supply chains are strategic, why aren’t we building buffers now?
#battery #minerals
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The evolving US critical-minerals strategy runs on three tracks. 🔹Firstly, it introduced White House-driven ‘America First’ deals, focused on deeper state intervention in domestic projects. 🔹 Secondly, it expanded into bilateral agreements overseas, supported…
$MP $UUUU $UAMY $USAR $LAC $CRML | India joins the U.S. led Pax Silica coalition as its 10th signatory.
This declaration secures the "silicon stack," leveraging India’s critical mineral capacity and engineering talent to build a trusted, pro innovation global tech order.
This declaration secures the "silicon stack," leveraging India’s critical mineral capacity and engineering talent to build a trusted, pro innovation global tech order.
👀1
📊 Commodities Are Tiny
That’s The Opportunity
Look at the scale:
• US Equities: $72T
• US Treasuries: $25T
Now compare:
• Oil open interest: $549B
• #Gold: $199B
• #Copper: $190B
• #Silver: $51B
Most commodity markets are sub-$500B.
That means something important.
It doesn’t take massive capital flows to move prices.
A small reallocation from bonds or equities into #commodities can create outsized price impact.
In a world of:
• #Energy transition
• Re-industrialization
• Geopolitical fragmentation
• Supply constraints
The asset class is structurally small relative to financial markets.
That’s The Opportunity
Look at the scale:
• US Equities: $72T
• US Treasuries: $25T
Now compare:
• Oil open interest: $549B
• #Gold: $199B
• #Copper: $190B
• #Silver: $51B
Most commodity markets are sub-$500B.
That means something important.
It doesn’t take massive capital flows to move prices.
A small reallocation from bonds or equities into #commodities can create outsized price impact.
In a world of:
• #Energy transition
• Re-industrialization
• Geopolitical fragmentation
• Supply constraints
The asset class is structurally small relative to financial markets.
🌍 Africa Is a Commodity Superpower
North Africa: petroleum & gas.
West Africa: oil, gold, iron ore.
Central Africa: diamonds, cobalt, copper.
East Africa: gold, uranium, natural gas.
Southern Africa: platinum, coal, manganese, diamonds.
It is the backbone of:
• #Energy
• Fertilizers
• EV batteries
• Defense metals
• Precious metals
Cobalt. Uranium. Platinum. #Copper. #Gold. Oil.
In a fragmented world, supply chains run through #Africa.
who secures long-term access first?
North Africa: petroleum & gas.
West Africa: oil, gold, iron ore.
Central Africa: diamonds, cobalt, copper.
East Africa: gold, uranium, natural gas.
Southern Africa: platinum, coal, manganese, diamonds.
It is the backbone of:
• #Energy
• Fertilizers
• EV batteries
• Defense metals
• Precious metals
Cobalt. Uranium. Platinum. #Copper. #Gold. Oil.
In a fragmented world, supply chains run through #Africa.
who secures long-term access first?
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
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✔ The supreme Cout's decision deepl disappoints me.
✔ Foreign countries are happy now. But they won't stay happy for long.
✔ The court was influenced by foreign interests.
✔ The tariff case has become a matter of national economic security.
❗️The good news is that there are more effective tools than the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act).
✔ Thanks to tariffs, we have ensured excellent national security.
✔ Tariffs on fentanyl remain in effect.
❗️We will use alternative mechanisms for tariffs. And we will be able to generate even more revenue.
✔ The court ruled that I cannot charge even a single dollar from any country under the IEEPA law.
✔ At the same time, I am allowed to completely stop trade with any country.
✔ I can ban companies from doing business in the US.
✔ The court allowed me to issue licenses, but prohibited charging for them.
✔ I can ban the import of a wide range of goods into the US.
❗️Now I will act more decisively. I'm choosing a different direction. Perhaps the one I should have taken from the very beginning. A tougher direction.
✔ The Supreme Court's decision has actually expanded my options for imposing tariffs and definitively established my powers in this area.
✔ Revenue from tariffs will increase.
✔ I can block, impose embargoes, and restrict the issuance of licenses in accordance with the IEEPA.
❗️A global tariff of 10% will be introduced additionally to the already existing tariffs, probably within three days.
✔ Several investigations will be launched soon.
✔ I'm considering imposing car tariffs of 15% to 30%
❗️We can impose a 20% tariff on goods from China due to the supply of fentanyl.
❗️The issue of returning tariff revenue should be resolved in court. We will litigate for five years.
✔ We have a very incompetent head of the Federal Reserve who likes high interest rates.
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💸 The Fed's balance sheet decreased by $8,987,000,000 in one week!
▪️Barr, Fed Chairman:
- The risk of inflation remaining above 2% persists.
- The base scenario is that the rate will be maintained at the current level for some time.
- AI technologies can increase productivity, but there is a risk of rising structural unemployment.
▪️Daly, Fed Chairman:
- The Fed's DCO is now moderately restrictive, with about 75 bps to neutrality.
- Inflation needs to continue to decline.
▪️Kashkari, Fed Chairman:
- The AI sector could become a driver of productivity growth over the next 5–10 years.
- The Fed is cautiously using AI technologies within the system due to privacy risks.
▪️Logan, Fed Chairman:
- Supported maintaining the rate, the labor market is stabilizing.
- Uncertainty has increased following the decision of the Supreme Court on tariffs.
📌 Market expectations (rate #Fed):
- March 18: PAUSE.
- April 29: PAUSE.
- June 17: PAUSE.
- July 29: reduction by 25 bps to 3.25-3.50%.
- September 16: PAUSE.
- October 28: reduction by 25 bps to 3.00-3.25%.
▪️Barr, Fed Chairman:
- The risk of inflation remaining above 2% persists.
- The base scenario is that the rate will be maintained at the current level for some time.
- AI technologies can increase productivity, but there is a risk of rising structural unemployment.
▪️Daly, Fed Chairman:
- The Fed's DCO is now moderately restrictive, with about 75 bps to neutrality.
- Inflation needs to continue to decline.
▪️Kashkari, Fed Chairman:
- The AI sector could become a driver of productivity growth over the next 5–10 years.
- The Fed is cautiously using AI technologies within the system due to privacy risks.
▪️Logan, Fed Chairman:
- Supported maintaining the rate, the labor market is stabilizing.
- Uncertainty has increased following the decision of the Supreme Court on tariffs.
📌 Market expectations (rate #Fed):
- March 18: PAUSE.
- April 29: PAUSE.
- June 17: PAUSE.
- July 29: reduction by 25 bps to 3.25-3.50%.
- September 16: PAUSE.
- October 28: reduction by 25 bps to 3.00-3.25%.