Friday, Feb 20 2026, 12:20 UTC time

Latest Important Headlines

📰 📋 US: Growth & Inflation — Economy outpaced forecasts; Q4 growth seen ~3%. Markets eye key U.S. inflation/PCE prints; Dollar heads for a strong weekly gain while US 10‑yr yield slips on geopolitical risk. Fed president says White House critique of Fed research is really about interest‑rate policy. ✅

📈 ✅ Global Markets: Risk Tone — Global markets steady ahead of US inflation; gold nudges higher then dips as the dollar ticks up; silver poised for first weekly gain in four. 🔖

🇬🇧 🔖 UK: Surprise Strength — Record January budget surplus and stronger‑than‑expected retail sales; PMIs show private sector and services expansion at multi‑month highs. Sterling ticks up; gilt yields fall on upbeat public finance data. 📌

🇪🇺 📌 Europe: PMIs & Yields — Eurozone private sector accelerates in February as manufacturing bounces back; Euro hovers near one‑month low. German producer prices drop more than expected; German Bund, Italian BTP and French OAT yields fall. Eurozone wages growth slowed last year. ✅

🇫🇷 🔖 France & Germany — French private sector largely stagnant with manufacturing slipping into contraction; Germany posts four‑month high in private‑sector growth driven by PMIs. 📋

🇯🇵 📋 Japan — Japanese shares fell as tech and banks weighed on markets; FX and yields watch global data flow. ✅

🇳🇿 ✅ New Zealand — Trade deficit shrinks; RBNZ governor confident inflation will return to target within 12 months. Kiwi approaches a 3‑week low amid risk‑sentiment moves. 🔖

🇦🇺 🔖 Australia — Private‑sector growth set to slow in February; services easing while factory activity expands for a fourth month. AUD set for weekly loss. 📌

🇨🇭 📌 Europe (Broad): Stocks & Sentiment — European stocks rally near records on stronger PMIs; euro and European yields stay lower after data. ✅

Note: Markets remain focused on upcoming US inflation/PCE data which will steer central‑bank views and FX/sovereign yield dynamics.

Trump is reviving the American coal sector.

- He is directing the Pentagon to buy electricity from coal companies
- He is funding ~$175 m for upgrades of 6 coal plants
- He has halted all coal retirements

In the end, energy security wins.

#Silver deficits are piling up.

- Over the past 5 years, the cumulative deficit totals ~800 m oz
- That is equivalent to roughly 1 year of global silver mine supply
- Over the past decade, industrial demand has surged by ~20% to ~67% of total demand

Despite all the paper shorting, the silver market remains in deficit.

Surging US copper inventories are draining #copper from the rest of the world.

Rising tariff fears have distorted trade flows:

- Higher tariff risk has driven copper premiums sharply higher
- This triggered a surge in COMEX inventories
- In 2025, US copper imports were 2x the 2021–24 average
- Including off-exchange stockpiles, the US now holds ~1 million tonnes of copper

That amount is equivalent to the annual output of the world’s largest copper mine , effectively removed from the global market.

Importantly, this copper is unlikely to flow back out.

With the launch of Project Vault, a critical mineral stockpile that includes copper, the US stockpiles are unlikely to flood the market. This mirrors the Cold War era, when the US held ~10 months of copper demand, vs ~7 months today.

Critical mineral stockpiling adds a new, persistent source of demand to a market that is already structurally tight.

🇺🇸 US macroeconomic data:

▪️ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector (Feb)

FACT: 51.2
FORECAST: 52.4
PREVIOUS.: 52.4

▪️ Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global (Feb)

FACT: 52.3
PREVIOUS.: 53.0

▪️ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the services sector (Feb)

FACT: 52.3
FORECAST: 53.0
PREVIOUS.: 52.7

🌍 Africa’s Baseload Reality

This map tells the real story of African power.

North Africa: Gas-to-power anchored to large reserves.

West Africa:Gas corridor forming around offshore discoveries.

East Africa: Hydro + geothermal backbone emerging.

Southern Africa: Coal-heavy. Aging fleet. Limited diversification.

Hydropower potential remains largely untapped.
Gas is expanding.
Nuclear is minimal.

Africa holds resources.
But firm baseload infrastructure is uneven and fragmented.

The opportunity is not just generation.

It is grid integration, gas monetization, and cross-border power corridors.

#oott #gas #Africa

⚡ Cuba Without Oil

Power Collapses

When oil deliveries stop, electricity supply falls.

Daily available power dropped sharply once crude inflows dried up.

Generation slipped from ~1,450 MW toward ~1,200 MW in weeks.

Cuba’s grid is oil-dependent.

No barrels. No baseload.

This is what energy insecurity looks like in real time.

Oil is not just export revenue.

It is grid stability.

#oott #Cuba

$SPY $QQQ $SPX $BTC $ETH | The Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s IEEPA based tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, citing a lack of clear Congressional authority.

The decision jeopardizes $300B in annual revenue and may trigger $175B in refunds.

Jeff Currie: Oil and metals are substantially underinvested and have significant upside.

- There is no oil supply glut
- Oil on water is largely a function of sanctions
- Disruptions at export terminals and a US winter storm have supported prices

Geopolitical risks are rising across the board, leading to hoarding across all commodities... adding demand on already tight markets

We are witnessing a rotation away from the tech-led “new economy” and toward the asset-heavy industries of the old economy.

This is reminiscent of the surge that followed the collapse of the dot-com bubble.

We have entered the age of commodities.

#SILVER #XAG/USD H2 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI

Silver volatility can move fast. Leverage magnifies it.

Trade commodities with up to 250x leverage ➡️ gains.trade/trading#XAG-USD

UBS: #Silver deficits for 2026 will be ~300 m oz.

- It would be the 6th consecutive year of a silver deficit
- That would be ~2.5x the 2025 deficit
- Or roughly ~40% of global mine production

The physical market remains extremely tight.

$RCAT $PLTR $KTOS $UMAC $DPRO $ONDS | The Pentagon’s $1.1B Drone Dominance Program enters Phase I, aiming for 340,000 attack drones by 2028.

The four phase competition drives unit costs down to $2,300, leveraging 25 vendors to secure U.S. aerial lethality.

🔥 The US could secure a 60-day stockpile of key battery minerals for under $1 billion.

Total cost in 2026: $991 million

Breakdown:

• Lithium: $416m
• Nickel: $272m
• Cobalt: $255m
• Others (graphite, manganese, coke): marginal

In the context of a $27T economy…

#Energy transition security for less than $1B.

That’s not a cost problem.
That’s a policy choice.

If supply chains are strategic, why aren’t we building buffers now?

#battery #minerals

$MP $UUUU $UAMY $USAR $LAC $CRML | India joins the U.S. led Pax Silica coalition as its 10th signatory.

This declaration secures the "silicon stack," leveraging India’s critical mineral capacity and engineering talent to build a trusted, pro innovation global tech order.

$GOOGL $WULF $CIFR $HUT | Alphabet is in talks to invest $100M in Fluidstack at a $7.5B valuation.

A key partner for Google’s TPUs, the "neocloud" has scaled revenue to over $650M and is building a 1GW supercomputer in France to meet global demand for frontier AI models.

📊 Commodities Are Tiny

That’s The Opportunity

Look at the scale:

• US Equities: $72T
• US Treasuries: $25T

Now compare:

• Oil open interest: $549B
• #Gold: $199B
• #Copper: $190B
• #Silver: $51B

Most commodity markets are sub-$500B.

That means something important.

It doesn’t take massive capital flows to move prices.

A small reallocation from bonds or equities into #commodities can create outsized price impact.

In a world of:

• #Energy transition
• Re-industrialization
• Geopolitical fragmentation
• Supply constraints

The asset class is structurally small relative to financial markets.

🌍 Africa Is a Commodity Superpower

North Africa: petroleum & gas.

West Africa: oil, gold, iron ore.

Central Africa: diamonds, cobalt, copper.

East Africa: gold, uranium, natural gas.

Southern Africa: platinum, coal, manganese, diamonds.

It is the backbone of:

• #Energy
• Fertilizers
• EV batteries
• Defense metals
• Precious metals

Cobalt. Uranium. Platinum. #Copper. #Gold. Oil.

In a fragmented world, supply chains run through #Africa.

who secures long-term access first?