🛢🕯Oil volatility weighs on Wall Street and unsettles markets

US stocks saw significant volatility as investors tried to digest mixed signals about the outlook for oil supplies, with the war in Iran weighing on energy markets. In late trading, Oracle shares rose after the company issued strong sales forecasts.

The S&P 500 index gave up its gains, while US oil pared some of its losses after temporarily falling below $80 a barrel. This came after the White House announced that the US Navy had not escorted any oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, denying a previous post—later deleted—by Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

Despite this, oil fell by around 12%, its biggest drop since 2022, as major economies explored the possibility of using their strategic reserves to avert a supply crisis.

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‼️‼️Just released | Consumer Price Index

Previous: 2.4%
Estimate: 2.4%
Current: 2.4%

Result: Negative for the US dollar

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‼️‼️Just released | CPI m/m
Previous: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Result: Positive for the US dollar

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‼️‼️Just released | Core CPI m/m
Previous: 0.3%
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%
Result: Negative for the US dollar

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💸💵The EUR/USD pair continues to decline for the third consecutive day, trading near the 1.1550 level during Thursday's European trading session.

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🛢❗️TD Securities: Oil Around $150 Could Shift Central Bank Policy

TD Securities says major central banks are now placing greater weight on inflation and inflation expectations after recent supply shocks.

However, there is a tipping point where demand destruction outweighs inflation fears.

According to TD, that level could be reached if oil prices approach $150 per barrel, which may eventually lead central banks to consider interest rate cuts instead of hikes.

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📉GT Technical Report, covering today’s key levels and market outlook.

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‼️Silver (XAG/USD) trimmed some of the losses recorded in the previous session, trading around $86.90 per troy ounce during the European trading hours on Thursday.

However, the upside for the non-yielding metal may remain limited, as the recent rise in oil prices has increased inflation risks and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

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⚠️Global stocks fell as oil prices rose amid escalating tensions linked to the war in Iran.

S&P 500 futures fell about 1.1%, while Asian stocks fell 1.6% as geopolitical risks increased.

In contrast, Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel after an attack on two tankers, prompting #Iraq to halt operations at its oil ports.

Traders are currently expecting only one cut in US interest rates this year, amid rising energy costs and continued inflationary pressures.

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🔼Aluminum prices rose for the third consecutive day, reaching their highest closing level since April 2022, amid supply disruptions caused by the war in #Iran.

Smelters in the Middle East, which account for about 9% of global production, have reduced production levels amid the escalating war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In this context, BMI predicted that aluminum prices could rise to $3,700 per ton, with the global deficit widening to around 1.06 million tons.

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🔽Oil prices fell below $100 despite the escalating repercussions of the war in Iran.

Brent crude pared its gains to around $96 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $90.

At the same time, Iraq suspended operations at its oil ports after two tankers were targeted while in the loading area.

The International Energy Agency also announced a coordinated withdrawal of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, while the United States plans to release 172 million barrels.

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Today's most important economic data
🗓 Thursday 12 Mars 2026
🔹Unemployment claims 4:30pm GMT+4
🔹Building permits 4:30pm GMT+4
🔹Housing starts 4:30pm GMT+4
🔹Natural gas storage 4:30pm GMT+4


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‼️Aluminum Near 4-Year Highs as Supply Risks Rise

ING strategists report that aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange are trading near four-year highs, supported by supply disruption risks linked to the Middle East conflict.

Signs of tightening supply are emerging:
• Cancelled warrants jumped to 178,600 tons, the largest daily increase since May 2024.
• Cancellations now represent about 40% of total LME aluminum inventories, up sharply from 9% at the start of the month.

ING notes that aluminum remains structurally tighter than other base metals, meaning prices could stay supported despite broader macroeconomic pressures.

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‼️Just released | Weekly unemployment claims

Previous: 213K
Expected: 214K
Actual: 213K

Result: Positive for the US dollar

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