Ed ecco che è ripartita la solita giostra. ("luna di miele con i mercati finita e altre amenità varie e assortite")
Reuters
Italy’s fiscal weakness toughens its green plight
Giorgia Meloni’s bond market honeymoon is over. Her hard-right government hiked on Wednesday its budget deficit targets to 5.3% of GDP this year and 4.3% in 2024, higher than the previous goals of 4.5% and 3.7%. Rome also cut its GDP forecasts to 0.8% and…
Noi e la Francia a braccetto per quanto riguarda il deficit/PIL 2024. A 'sto giro non potranno chiamare di nuovo Moscovici a bullizzarci
Bloomberg.com
Meloni, Macron Defy EU With Budget-Busting Spending Sprees
Sul Corriere si sono accorti del rapporto della Commissione ex art 126 TFUE proprio il giorno dopo che io ne ho scritto su La Verità. Che coincidenza!
Uscita stamattina, nessuno che lo dica a Fubini, che la cerca da due giorni...
MEF
La Nota di aggiornamento del documento di economia e finanza del 2023 (NADEF)
Pubblicata la Nota di aggiornamento del documento di economia e finanza del 2023 per il triennio 2024-2026
La triste fine dei fondi di private equity negli USA (ma anche in Europa non si scherza) si sono imbottiti di capitali di fondi pensione che ora non sanno come venirne fuori e gli hanno investiti in imprese che non hanno dato ritorni soddisfacenti. Così, i nuovi investitori non arrivano più e i vecchi non vedono l'ora di andarsene.
Bloomberg.com
Private Equity’s Slow Carnage Unleashes a Wave of Zombies
A historic shakeup is threatening to snare many small, struggling or fading money managers unable to raise fresh funds.
It is easier for investors to demand AAA or AA bonds to secure a loan than it is to examine cash flow and the commercial viability of a borrower. This is efficient and protects individual investors but makes the system more dangerous as a whole. “A fallacy of composition is at play,” it said.
“An adverse shock to the value of government paper used as collateral could trigger destabilising dynamics,” it said. It can trigger margin calls on derivatives contracts, and demands for a collateral top-up. This in turn can trigger fire sales, setting in motion a
“liquidity-credit risk spiral”. Opinions vary on why US yields have gone mad. We know that foreign buyers are shunning US debt, though not the dollar itself. China and Japan have between them liquidated $450bn of US Treasuries over the last year.
“An adverse shock to the value of government paper used as collateral could trigger destabilising dynamics,” it said. It can trigger margin calls on derivatives contracts, and demands for a collateral top-up. This in turn can trigger fire sales, setting in motion a
“liquidity-credit risk spiral”. Opinions vary on why US yields have gone mad. We know that foreign buyers are shunning US debt, though not the dollar itself. China and Japan have between them liquidated $450bn of US Treasuries over the last year.
The spark for a broader crisis could equally come from this side of the Atlantic where the European Central Bank is tightening hard into a doubledip downturn, and is trying to dump its own QE losses onto private banks by halting payments on a chunk of minimum reserves. Traders are taking a closer look at Italy’s debt as the economy stalls and the fiscal deficit goes awry. Italian risk spreads over 10-year Bunds have jumped 40 basis points this month.
At this juncture, the Fed is compounding stress for everybody. It is adding $95bn a month to Treasury supply with its bond sales (QT). It is talking up “higher rates for longer” even though the full impact of this tightening will not be felt until deep into 2024. Is it too cruel to suggest that Jay Powell so fears the 1970s ghost of Arthur Burns that he is willing to risk a collateral meltdown as the lesser evil?
At this juncture, the Fed is compounding stress for everybody. It is adding $95bn a month to Treasury supply with its bond sales (QT). It is talking up “higher rates for longer” even though the full impact of this tightening will not be felt until deep into 2024. Is it too cruel to suggest that Jay Powell so fears the 1970s ghost of Arthur Burns that he is willing to risk a collateral meltdown as the lesser evil?