Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโšก๏ธ โ€” President Trump is expected to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tonight to discuss the deal with Iran, according to Axios, citing a senior Israeli official.
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๐Ÿ–•39โค3๐Ÿค”3๐Ÿคก1๐Ÿ˜ˆ1๐Ÿ™Š1
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, also reportedly arrived at the White House around 15-20 minutes ago. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- U.S. Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, has also just arrived at the White House moments ago.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ—ณ Kentucky 4th House District GOP Primary 2026
๐Ÿ“ Sources: AdImpact, Associated Press, Axios, FEC, Kentucky Lantern, Legis1


๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท @PoliticsGR
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒžโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถU.S. Air Force fighter jets are currently flying over the Khalefan district in Erbil province, northern Iraq, in an attempt to intercept Iranian drones targeting Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups in the area.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to Axios, citing two sources of knowledge, Donald Trump will hold a conference call with Arab leaders at 8pm Jerusalem time (1pm est) to discuss the draft agreement with Iran and hear their views.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- "The call was very positive. Good progress is being made," a regional diplomat told Fox News, adding that "regional leaders were supportive of the progress and of the breakthrough President Trump achieved with the talks."

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒžโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถU.S. Air Force fighter jets are currently flying over the Khalefan district in Erbil province, northern Iraq, in an attempt to intercept Iranian drones targeting Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups in the area. @GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถโŒ๐ŸŒž- Footage of an Iranian drone attack on the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) in Erbil Province, northern Iraq.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒžโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถU.S. Air Force fighter jets are currently flying over the Khalefan district in Erbil province, northern Iraq, in an attempt to intercept Iranian drones targeting Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups in the area. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒžโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ- The fighter jets remain airborne and are now moving eastward, towards the Iran-Iraq border.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Republican Senator and close friend to Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham: If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capabilityโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ- Lindsey Graham:
If it is perceived in the region that a deal with Iran allows the regime to survive and become more powerful over time, we will have poured gasoline on the conflicts in Lebanon and Iraq.

A deal that is perceived to allow Iran to survive and possess the ability to control the Strait in the future will put Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Shia militias in Iraq on steroids.


@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- U.S. Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, has also just arrived at the White House moments ago. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- All U.S. National Security Council members requested by Donald Trump have now arrived at the White House.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to Axios, citing two sources of knowledge, Donald Trump will hold a conference call with Arab leaders at 8pm Jerusalem time (1pm est) to discuss the draft agreement with Iran and hear their views.
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to a regional source cited by Axios, all Arab and Muslim leaders on the call with Donald Trump today urged him to proceed with the deal and de-escalate the situation, with the message from all parties being "please stop the war for the benefit of the whole region."

โžก๏ธ The source stated that negotiations are moving well, with mediators hoping to conclude and announce a one-page framework agreement tomorrow, followed by the initiation of more detailed negotiations a few days later.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to a regional source cited by Axios, all Arab and Muslim leaders on the call with Donald Trump today urged him to proceed with the deal and de-escalate the situation, with the message from all parties being "please stop the war for theโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ - According to CNN, regional leaders urged Donald Trump to accept a framework agreement with Iran, describing the call as "very positive" with "good progress."

โžก๏ธ Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been in contact with U.S. officials throughout this evening and is expected to speak with Trump later tonight. Netanyahu is also convening a limited security consultation with selected ministers and officials to discuss the developments.

โžก๏ธ Israel fears a limited interim agreement could extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and ease sanctions without addressing its main concerns, Iran's nuclear program and uranium stockpile. The U.S. has reassured Israel on the uranium matter, but key issues remain regarding Iran's enriched uranium and enrichment activities.
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#BREAKING
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump has announced that the "final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly":
I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good call with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip ErdoฤŸan, of Tรผrkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, concerning the Islamic Republic of Iran, and all things related to a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE. An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถโŒ๐ŸŒž- Moments ago, Iranian rockets struck Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups near Tarmiyah, north of Baghdad, with explosions heard in the area. Around the same time, an Iranian rocket and drone attack was also reported again near Erbil in northern Iraq.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- There still remains significant U.S. Air Force activity across West Asia, with five KC-135R Stratotanker refueling aircraft and two C-17A Globemaster III transport aircraft currently airborne in the region.

@GeoPWatch
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#BREAKING ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump has announced that the "final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly": I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good call with President Mohammedโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Al-Jazeera's Ali Hashem:
According to my sources, the draft proposal thatโ€™s supposed to be finalised include:

-End of war on all fronts including Lebanon

-Freeing several billion dollars of Iran's blocked funds

-Lifting the U.S. naval blockade and opening the strait of Hormuz

-Withdrawal of American forces from the immediate vicinity of Iran

After this, the parties will have 30 days to agree on the nuclear issue.
These 30 days can be extended by mutual agreement.
During these thirty days, passage will be facilitated through the strait.
According to Iran, management of the Strait of Hormuz will be an Iranian-Omani issue, and is being negotiated with Muscat.
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF Excavator using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Deir Seryan' on the 21st of May. @GeoPWatch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "NAMER" APC driver hatch using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Taybeh' on the 16th of May.

@GeoPWatch
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#BREAKING ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump has announced that the "final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly": I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good call with President Mohammedโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Iran's Fars News Agency, Donald Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous condition and that a deal is imminent is inconsistent with reality. Under the latest draft, if an agreement is reached, the strait will remain under Iranian management.

โžก๏ธ While Iran has agreed to allow shipping volumes to return to pre-war levels, this does not constitute free passage โ€” Iran will retain exclusive control over routes, timing, manner of passage, and the issuance of permits.

โžก๏ธ Fars also noted that despite Trump previously insisting nuclear negotiations were a core condition of any deal, no commitment has been made by Iran and the nuclear issue has not been discussed at this stage.

โžก๏ธ Notably, American officials have reportedly acknowledged in messages to Iran that Trump's social media posts are largely for domestic consumption and have advised Tehran not to take them at face value.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ - Three senior Iranian officials informed the New York Times that Iran has agreed to a memorandum to cease fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

โžก๏ธ This agreement would end all hostilities, lift the US naval blockade, and allow free commercial traffic through the strait without tolls. Additionally, it would release $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets.

โžก๏ธ Nuclear issues would be postponed for separate negotiations in 30 to 60 days. Pakistani and Qatari mediators helped draft the agreement.
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