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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ฆโ€“ Pope Leo XIV performed six-seven. @GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ฆ6๏ธโƒฃ7๏ธโƒฃโ€“ Pope Leo XIV did it again.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ-Israeli security minister Itamar Ben Gvir has posted a video of the "detained" flotilla activists currently being held in Israel. The post is captioned:This is how we welcome supporters of terrorism Welcome to Israel @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ- The French Foreign Minister has announced that Israeli far-right minister of national security Itamar Ben Gvir is banned from entering France and its airspace due to his unacceptable actions towards activists aboard the Global Sumud Flotilla.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- U.S. Central Command has released a list of statistics regarding the naval blockade on Iran:
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces reached the milestone of redirecting 100 commercial vessels, May 23, while enforcing a maritime blockade against Iran.

American forces began implementing the blockade April 13 against commercial ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, in accordance with a presidential proclamation. Over the past six weeks, more than 15,000 Soldiers, Sailors, Marines, and Airmen have redirected 100 vessels, disabled four, and allowed 26 humanitarian aid ships to pass.

More than 200 U.S. aircraft and warships are supporting the mission, including the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group, Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group/31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, and multiple guided-missile destroyers.

The blockade is being enforced against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- An Iranian official told Al Jazeera that Iran has reached a memorandum of understanding with the Pakistani mediator and is now awaiting the American response. The memorandum covers ending the war, lifting the blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

โžก๏ธ Nuclear issues have been excluded from the memorandum due to their complexity, though the official indicated that a pathway to nuclear negotiations could open after 30 days of the agreement being in place. The official stressed that Iran cannot make further concessions beyond those outlined in the memorandum.

โžก๏ธ It had been planned for Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir to formally announce the memorandum of understanding in Tehran; however, he departed to coordinate directly with the U.S. before doing so.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- An Iranian official told Al Jazeera that Iran has reached a memorandum of understanding with the Pakistani mediator and is now awaiting the American response. The memorandum covers ending the war, lifting the blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuzโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Iranian Foreign Ministry and Iranian negotiation team spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei stated that Iran is "very far and very close to an agreement" with the U.S., emphasizing that ending the war is Tehran's top priority.

โžก๏ธ He mentioned that Asim Munir's visit aimed to enhance communication between the two sides, with positions narrowing on disputed clauses, although a formal agreement has not yet been reached. Baqaei criticized contradictory American positions, cautioning that Tehran cannot assume a breakthrough is guaranteed.

โžก๏ธ Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Baqaei asserted that the issue is solely between Iran and its neighboring coastal states, not involving the U.S. He indicated that current talks focus on resolving regional conflicts, including in Lebanon, rather than detailed nuclear discussions.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a message to Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, reaffirmed Iran's continued support for what it describes as legitimate resistance movements, with Hezbollah at the forefront.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Iranian Foreign Ministry and Iranian negotiation team spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei stated that Iran is "very far and very close to an agreement" with the U.S., emphasizing that ending the war is Tehran's top priority. โžก๏ธ He mentioned that Asim Munir'sโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Esmaeil Baqaei also stated that while sanctions are raised in every conversation with the U.S., and Iran's explicit demand for their full removal is included in the text, the lifting of sanctions is not being actively discussed at this stage given the current focus on ending the war.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the negotiations with Iran:
There may be news later today. I don't have news for you at this very moment, but there might be some news a little later today. There may not be; I hope there will be, but I'm not sure yet.

The question is about the Iranian issue, and, as I said, there's been some progress done, some progress made. Even as I speak to you now, there's some work being done. There is a chance that whether it's later today, tomorrow, or in a couple days, we may have something to say.

But this issue needs to be solved, as the president has said, one way or the other. Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. The straits need to be open without tolls. They need to turn over their enriched uranium; they need to turn over their highly enriched uranium. We need to address that issue; we need to address the issue of enrichment. These are the President's points consistently, and his preference is always to deal with it in a diplomatic way.

The president's preference is always to solve problems such as these through a negotiated diplomatic solution. That's what we're working on right now. But this problem will be solved, as the president's made clear, one way or the other. We hope it's done through the diplomatic route; that's what we're working on, and perhaps there'll be something to talk about on that topic while I'm here on this trip.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- A large number of U.S. Air Force aircraft are currently leaving West Asia towards Europe; this includes 2 refueling aircraft and 6 transport aircraft.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump told Axios today that he would meet with Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Vice President Vance later in the day to discuss Iran's latest offer and would likely decide by Sunday whether to resume the war.

โžก๏ธ Trump described the situation as a "solid 50/50" between reaching a deal or choosing to "blow them to kingdom come," adding: "I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good."

โžก๏ธ Trump stressed he would only accept a deal covering uranium enrichment and the fate of Iran's existing stockpile, though those issues are unlikely to be resolved in detail under the proposed letter of intent, which would end the war and launch a 30-day period of more in-depth negotiations.
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๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท- HMS Dragon (D35), the Royal Navy's Type 45 destroyer, has integrated into the French Navy's Charles de Gaulle carrier strike group. Prior to joining the strike group, HMS Dragon was escorted through the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait by French aircraft operating out of France's base in Djibouti, including an Atlantique 2 maritime patrol aircraft and Mirage 2000 fighters.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to Axios, citing two sources of knowledge, Donald Trump will hold a conference call with Arab leaders at 8pm Jerusalem time (1pm est) to discuss the draft agreement with Iran and hear their views.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to a source close to the Iranian negotiation team cited by Fars News, three major sticking points remain that could prevent a deal from being reached.

โžก๏ธ Iran refuses to discuss nuclear issues in this round of negotiations, insisting they can only be addressed in a subsequent round after trust-building conditions are met.

โžก๏ธ Iran's frozen funds must be transferred and released before Tehran will enter any negotiations, a non-negotiable precondition.

โžก๏ธ Finally, there is a significant disagreement over the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. demanding a full return to previous conditions while Iran insists on managing the Strait itself, determining which ships may pass and through which routes.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒŸ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช- U.S. Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft conducted an emergency response exercise around the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, Venezuela, testing the military's rapid response capability.

โžก๏ธ The MV-22 Osprey aircraft involved in the exercise were deployed from Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 263 (VMM-263), operating from the USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7), which is currently positioned between 100-350km north of Caracas.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump told Axios today that he would meet with Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Vice President Vance later in the day to discuss Iran's latest offer and would likely decide by Sunday whether to resume the war. โžก๏ธ Trump described the situationโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- U.S. Vice President JD Vance has made an unplanned return to Washington DC from Cincinnati, with his motorcade seen racing to the White House, likely at Donald Trump's request in connection with the latest developments regarding the Iran negotiations.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to Axios, citing two sources of knowledge, Donald Trump will hold a conference call with Arab leaders at 8pm Jerusalem time (1pm est) to discuss the draft agreement with Iran and hear their views.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Republican Senator and close friend to Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, told Axios that regional leaders were divided in their advice to Donald Trump, with some pressing him to strike Iran to weaken its government and secure a better deal, while others, along with some senior White House advisors, urged him to accept the current proposal.

โžก๏ธ The second group argued that Iran retains the capability to destroy significant Gulf oil infrastructure if attacked and that the security of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed against Iranian influence.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- U.S. Vice President JD Vance has made an unplanned return to Washington DC from Cincinnati, with his motorcade seen racing to the White House, likely at Donald Trump's request in connection with the latest developments regarding the Iran negotiations.โ€ฆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Footage of U.S. Vice President JD Vance's motorcade rushing to the White House approximately 40 minutes ago after he returned from Cincinnati, Ohio. Vance is in the White House right now.

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