📈 Trading Tips for Major Holidays
Ahead of key holidays (Christmas, New Year’s, Spring Festival), markets see shrinking liquidity, muted volatility, and weak trends. Trade by the rule: *risk first, light positions, stay flexible*.
1. 🚨 Avoid Liquidity Traps
Cut positions to ≤50% of normal size, widen stop-loss by 1.5–2x, and skip heavy overnight holdings to dodge slippage and fake breakouts.
2. 🎯 Trade Ranges, Not Trends
Use recent highs/lows to set ranges; buy support, sell resistance. Target 50–80% of range width, exit fast, no overstaying.
3. ⚡️ Handle Data Pulses Wisely
For high-impact data (CPI, NFP), wait 1–2 candlesticks to confirm trends. Skip chasing the first wave — avoid volume-less fake breakouts.
4. 🦢 Skip Black Swan Risks
Close non-essential positions 1–2 days pre-holiday to avoid post-break gaps. If holding positions, set gap-proof stop-losses.
5. 💎 Stick to Liquid Assets
Trade gold, crude oil, major currency pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY) only — niche assets face extreme volatility risks.
6. ⏳ Shorten Time Frames
Focus on 1H/4H charts, reduce trade frequency. Prioritize capital preservation over trivial pre-holiday gains.
Ahead of key holidays (Christmas, New Year’s, Spring Festival), markets see shrinking liquidity, muted volatility, and weak trends. Trade by the rule: *risk first, light positions, stay flexible*.
1. 🚨 Avoid Liquidity Traps
Cut positions to ≤50% of normal size, widen stop-loss by 1.5–2x, and skip heavy overnight holdings to dodge slippage and fake breakouts.
2. 🎯 Trade Ranges, Not Trends
Use recent highs/lows to set ranges; buy support, sell resistance. Target 50–80% of range width, exit fast, no overstaying.
3. ⚡️ Handle Data Pulses Wisely
For high-impact data (CPI, NFP), wait 1–2 candlesticks to confirm trends. Skip chasing the first wave — avoid volume-less fake breakouts.
4. 🦢 Skip Black Swan Risks
Close non-essential positions 1–2 days pre-holiday to avoid post-break gaps. If holding positions, set gap-proof stop-losses.
5. 💎 Stick to Liquid Assets
Trade gold, crude oil, major currency pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY) only — niche assets face extreme volatility risks.
6. ⏳ Shorten Time Frames
Focus on 1H/4H charts, reduce trade frequency. Prioritize capital preservation over trivial pre-holiday gains.
The BOJ is set to hike rates by 25bps to 0.75% (30-year high) at its Dec 18-19 meeting — this is now 94% priced in by markets. Key details:
Over half of BOJ policymakers support the hike (no opposition), with government backing.
Focus shifts to post-meeting guidance: If the BOJ signals gradual future hikes (e.g., to 1% in 2026), JPY could strengthen further; if guidance is dovish/patient, USD/JPY may rebound.
Over half of BOJ policymakers support the hike (no opposition), with government backing.
Focus shifts to post-meeting guidance: If the BOJ signals gradual future hikes (e.g., to 1% in 2026), JPY could strengthen further; if guidance is dovish/patient, USD/JPY may rebound.
1. Strategy Execution Status: No Valid Entry Triggered
The original entry condition required "price holding above 1.1745 + bullish candlestick confirmation (e.g., bullish pin bar)". However, the current price has dropped to 1.17240, breaking below the 1.1745 support level — and no bullish confirmation signal has emerged. Thus, the long position was never validly entered.
2. Key Deviations from the Original Strategy
Support Breakdown: The original support zone (1.17457~1.17311) has been breached (current price 1.17240), directly invalidating the "bullish retracement" technical logic — the premise for the long trade is no longer intact.
Weakened Indicator Signals: The original RSI (~64) has pulled back (now ~51 on the chart), and bullish momentum has contracted, failing to meet the "momentum continuation" expectation.
3. Conclusion: The Original Long Strategy Is Invalid
The current price action no longer meets the entry criteria (support broken + no bullish signal), so this trade cannot be executed as planned. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/iKu6XMkH-2025-12-16-EURUSD-4-Hour-Trading-Plan/
The original entry condition required "price holding above 1.1745 + bullish candlestick confirmation (e.g., bullish pin bar)". However, the current price has dropped to 1.17240, breaking below the 1.1745 support level — and no bullish confirmation signal has emerged. Thus, the long position was never validly entered.
2. Key Deviations from the Original Strategy
Support Breakdown: The original support zone (1.17457~1.17311) has been breached (current price 1.17240), directly invalidating the "bullish retracement" technical logic — the premise for the long trade is no longer intact.
Weakened Indicator Signals: The original RSI (~64) has pulled back (now ~51 on the chart), and bullish momentum has contracted, failing to meet the "momentum continuation" expectation.
3. Conclusion: The Original Long Strategy Is Invalid
The current price action no longer meets the entry criteria (support broken + no bullish signal), so this trade cannot be executed as planned. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/iKu6XMkH-2025-12-16-EURUSD-4-Hour-Trading-Plan/
TradingView
2025.12.16 EURUSD 4-Hour Trading Plan for OANDA:EURUSD by FUNTRADER-Vera
Hello traders,
I. Current Technical Context
- Instrument: Euro vs. U.S. Dollar (EURUSD), 4-hour chart
- Pattern: Bullish retracement (recent uptrend; current price ~1.1749 )
- Key Levels (Fibonacci extensions/resistances):
- Support: 1.17457~1.17311
…
I. Current Technical Context
- Instrument: Euro vs. U.S. Dollar (EURUSD), 4-hour chart
- Pattern: Bullish retracement (recent uptrend; current price ~1.1749 )
- Key Levels (Fibonacci extensions/resistances):
- Support: 1.17457~1.17311
…
🧭 Why a Trading Plan Is a Trader’s "Lifeline"
A trading plan is your market "navigation system" — it turns vague "gut feelings" into clear rules, keeping you grounded amid emotional swings (greed/fear) and price noise:
- It defines when to enter/exit：No more impulsive chasing; e.g., "only go long if price holds 1.1745 + bullish candlestick" (not "buy because it *feels* like it’ll rise").
- It locks in risk-reward boundaries：Stop-loss/take-profit are set in advance — no random adjustments mid-trade when volatility spikes.
- It holds you accountable：Every trade has a framework; post-session, you can tell if it failed because *the plan was flawed* or *the market didn’t follow the script*.
❌ Why Some Trading Plans Never Play Out
Most unexecuted plans die because signals never trigger… or they get invalidated:
- No clear signal emerges：Your plan says "enter at 1.1745 support" — but price breaks below it immediately, hitting the "abandon plan" rule (so you don’t force a bad trade).
- Signals get proven wrong：You relied on "RSI holding 50" for bullish momentum… but RSI fades right after bouncing, breaking the technical logic.
- External shocks derail the script：Sudden data (e.g., CPI) or policy shifts (central bank hikes) blow up the plan’s preconditions.
The truth? A plan not playing out isn’t a failure — it’s the plan *doing its job*: keeping you out of ruleless, high-risk trades. That’s its value.
A trading plan is your market "navigation system" — it turns vague "gut feelings" into clear rules, keeping you grounded amid emotional swings (greed/fear) and price noise:
- It defines when to enter/exit：No more impulsive chasing; e.g., "only go long if price holds 1.1745 + bullish candlestick" (not "buy because it *feels* like it’ll rise").
- It locks in risk-reward boundaries：Stop-loss/take-profit are set in advance — no random adjustments mid-trade when volatility spikes.
- It holds you accountable：Every trade has a framework; post-session, you can tell if it failed because *the plan was flawed* or *the market didn’t follow the script*.
❌ Why Some Trading Plans Never Play Out
Most unexecuted plans die because signals never trigger… or they get invalidated:
- No clear signal emerges：Your plan says "enter at 1.1745 support" — but price breaks below it immediately, hitting the "abandon plan" rule (so you don’t force a bad trade).
- Signals get proven wrong：You relied on "RSI holding 50" for bullish momentum… but RSI fades right after bouncing, breaking the technical logic.
- External shocks derail the script：Sudden data (e.g., CPI) or policy shifts (central bank hikes) blow up the plan’s preconditions.
The truth? A plan not playing out isn’t a failure — it’s the plan *doing its job*: keeping you out of ruleless, high-risk trades. That’s its value.