#Bitcoin Mid-cycle Peak ๐
As I predicted, it will happen by the end of 2023.
On the weekly RSI, we entered the overbought zone.
As I predicted, it will happen by the end of 2023.
On the weekly RSI, we entered the overbought zone.
#Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression โคด๏ธ
In moments of short-term negative background, it is better to zoom out and focus on long-term strategies.
Log regression is based on the method of fundamental analysis - crypto adoption and diminishing returns. Works well in the long run๐
In moments of short-term negative background, it is better to zoom out and focus on long-term strategies.
Log regression is based on the method of fundamental analysis - crypto adoption and diminishing returns. Works well in the long run๐
#Bitcoin Liquidity ๐๐ณ
What do the liquidity map and purchases of big players tell us.๐
There were many large purchases in the area, 33-34k is a potential support zone where they can occur again in the event of a correction.
Also, if the short-term players continue to short the highs with leverage, I think we can wait for them to be cut in the area of 38k (short squeeze).โ๏ธ
Although short-term corrections are possible, the long-term picture looks quite good. This and other indicators are also included in the Feels subscription, which is now at a huge discount๐ฅ
What do the liquidity map and purchases of big players tell us.๐
There were many large purchases in the area, 33-34k is a potential support zone where they can occur again in the event of a correction.
Also, if the short-term players continue to short the highs with leverage, I think we can wait for them to be cut in the area of 38k (short squeeze).โ๏ธ
Although short-term corrections are possible, the long-term picture looks quite good. This and other indicators are also included in the Feels subscription, which is now at a huge discount๐ฅ
#Bitcoin Gaussian Channel ๐๐
As we have said in previous posts, an exit above 0 in GaussianAO is quite a bullish sign and will take us to the 0.61 mark before the halving.โ
Since we have already broken out of the channel, I would expect a descent back into it, which means that even before the halving we will see one consolidation with a possible retest of the ~33k zone.
Closer to Q1 2024, I expect to reach a new level of 42k+โ๏ธ
As we have said in previous posts, an exit above 0 in GaussianAO is quite a bullish sign and will take us to the 0.61 mark before the halving.โ
Since we have already broken out of the channel, I would expect a descent back into it, which means that even before the halving we will see one consolidation with a possible retest of the ~33k zone.
Closer to Q1 2024, I expect to reach a new level of 42k+โ๏ธ
#Ethereum Keltner Channel ๐
In the last post, I said that I expect the end of the accumulation and good momentum with a breakout of the baselineโ๏ธ
And that happened. I can adjust only that, I do not expect such a deep correction, but only a retest of the support line. On the RSI, a retest of zone 50 is possible. After these moments, closer to spring, a clear uptrend can be expectedโคด๏ธ
In the last post, I said that I expect the end of the accumulation and good momentum with a breakout of the baselineโ๏ธ
And that happened. I can adjust only that, I do not expect such a deep correction, but only a retest of the support line. On the RSI, a retest of zone 50 is possible. After these moments, closer to spring, a clear uptrend can be expectedโคด๏ธ
#Bitcoin correlation with #Gold ๐ช
I already wrote earlier that digital gold often correlates with classical gold.
The Spearman correlation clearly shows a short-term trend, and although there are moments when there is a discorrelation (red histogram), most of the moments are above 0 in green๐ฉ values.
๐กI would say that it is a good trend that the correlation is increasingly positive because this is one of the main purposes of $BTC to become the new gold and a protective asset
I already wrote earlier that digital gold often correlates with classical gold.
The Spearman correlation clearly shows a short-term trend, and although there are moments when there is a discorrelation (red histogram), most of the moments are above 0 in green๐ฉ values.
๐กI would say that it is a good trend that the correlation is increasingly positive because this is one of the main purposes of $BTC to become the new gold and a protective asset
#Bitcoin Log Regression โคด๏ธ
Our current mid-cycle peak is starting to look more and more like 2019, not from the point of view of the phase of the cycle, but from a fairly strong moment and overbought.
The difference from the last time is that this time it is closer to halving, and it can be like the beginning of an active phase of growth, without essential corrections. Which, I think is unlikely, because the 2025 peak is still quite far away.โณ
A possible option is in the chart with a correction. It is also necessary to note that open interest is currently at record highs.
๐กTherefore, I warn against trades with high leverage. If you took $BTC on the spot because of the flagship indicator and according to my advice in the area of 16-20k, you definitely have nothing to worry about.
Our current mid-cycle peak is starting to look more and more like 2019, not from the point of view of the phase of the cycle, but from a fairly strong moment and overbought.
The difference from the last time is that this time it is closer to halving, and it can be like the beginning of an active phase of growth, without essential corrections. Which, I think is unlikely, because the 2025 peak is still quite far away.โณ
A possible option is in the chart with a correction. It is also necessary to note that open interest is currently at record highs.
๐กTherefore, I warn against trades with high leverage. If you took $BTC on the spot because of the flagship indicator and according to my advice in the area of 16-20k, you definitely have nothing to worry about.
#Bitcoin What a bull market looks like ๐
I have the impression that there hasn't been a bull market for so long. That most have forgotten what he looks like.
This does not mean that the BTC draws green bars every day and soon we will fly to ATH/100k/Moon ๐
๐กLet me remind you, in bull markets, the number of leveraged traders that big players want to cut often increases.
This leads to corrections, often supported by BMS. A break of this support is often called the end of a bull market, or a longer correction.
On the chart above, it is clearly visible that the entry into the RSI zone above 80 was often a local peak, and after 1-3 weeks a correction occurred.
I have the impression that there hasn't been a bull market for so long. That most have forgotten what he looks like.
This does not mean that the BTC draws green bars every day and soon we will fly to ATH/100k/Moon ๐
๐กLet me remind you, in bull markets, the number of leveraged traders that big players want to cut often increases.
This leads to corrections, often supported by BMS. A break of this support is often called the end of a bull market, or a longer correction.
On the chart above, it is clearly visible that the entry into the RSI zone above 80 was often a local peak, and after 1-3 weeks a correction occurred.
#Bitcoin Whale Liquidity ๐ณ๐
Let's think about what a correction would look like if the selling zone of the whales became strong resistance.
In the last post, we looked at how often the BMS acts as a support, and that as soon as we move away a lot, a correction occurs.
Last time at the beginning of 2023, we were only 32% away (now 40%). Larger distances from BMS were only on the 2021 bull run, but then we have a halving + injection of quite large liquidity.
๐ก These data tell us that in the medium term, we need to be ready for a correction to 37k, in the worst-case scenario to the 33k zone. From the long-term perspective, I am bullishโ๏ธ
Let's think about what a correction would look like if the selling zone of the whales became strong resistance.
In the last post, we looked at how often the BMS acts as a support, and that as soon as we move away a lot, a correction occurs.
Last time at the beginning of 2023, we were only 32% away (now 40%). Larger distances from BMS were only on the 2021 bull run, but then we have a halving + injection of quite large liquidity.
๐ก These data tell us that in the medium term, we need to be ready for a correction to 37k, in the worst-case scenario to the 33k zone. From the long-term perspective, I am bullishโ๏ธ
#Bitcoin 3 Phases Theory ๐ฆ
Recently, there has been a lot of speculation about ATH.
"We will take ATH in 2023, we will take ATH until the halving"๐ฐ
Let me tell you, it won't happen, at least not so quickly.
๐งฎOn average, the time from the bottom to taking the past high takes ~700 days. Add diminishing returns here, because large capitalization does not allow BTC to grow as fast as before.
๐กAnd we get that even under positive scenarios it won't be before the halving, so I wouldn't expect an ATH before mid-2024.
Recently, there has been a lot of speculation about ATH.
"We will take ATH in 2023, we will take ATH until the halving"๐ฐ
Let me tell you, it won't happen, at least not so quickly.
๐งฎOn average, the time from the bottom to taking the past high takes ~700 days. Add diminishing returns here, because large capitalization does not allow BTC to grow as fast as before.
๐กAnd we get that even under positive scenarios it won't be before the halving, so I wouldn't expect an ATH before mid-2024.
#Bitcoin Whale Liquidity ๐ณ๐
At a time when popular analysis promised rapid movement without corrections above 100k. I kept stressing that in a healthy bull market, there are corrections and that's normal, you have to be ready for that.
Today there was a small correction, even rather a long squeeze, which is difficult to call a correction. And already the majority of the market is starting to worry. And the analysis of the majority changed to be more conservative.
๐กDon't be like that, remain unemotional and think coldly. Now, as for the chart, the past selling zone of the whales has become a more difficult resistance, as I said. I think we have opportunities for consolidation, for some time, before a new upward movementโ๏ธ
At a time when popular analysis promised rapid movement without corrections above 100k. I kept stressing that in a healthy bull market, there are corrections and that's normal, you have to be ready for that.
Today there was a small correction, even rather a long squeeze, which is difficult to call a correction. And already the majority of the market is starting to worry. And the analysis of the majority changed to be more conservative.
๐กDon't be like that, remain unemotional and think coldly. Now, as for the chart, the past selling zone of the whales has become a more difficult resistance, as I said. I think we have opportunities for consolidation, for some time, before a new upward movementโ๏ธ
Global Net Liquidity Correlation with #Bitcoin
The main factor in liquidity growth was the infusion from China (PRC - money supply M2 = +10.3%). There is also some optimism that Western countries will move to lower key rates in 2024.
๐กThe majority would probably like countries to start printing money in large quantities in a short period, like in 2021, and their assets to grow. Instead, I think that we are in for restrained growth in liquidity and with it the market's crypto.โ๏ธ
The main factor in liquidity growth was the infusion from China (PRC - money supply M2 = +10.3%). There is also some optimism that Western countries will move to lower key rates in 2024.
๐กThe majority would probably like countries to start printing money in large quantities in a short period, like in 2021, and their assets to grow. Instead, I think that we are in for restrained growth in liquidity and with it the market's crypto.โ๏ธ
#Bitcoin ะกorrelation with #Dollar
A weaker DXY = a positive for BTCโ๏ธ
The chart below shows the moments when 2 assets are correlated (circledโญ๏ธ). Note the DXY is inverted.
In the last post, I said that I expect the dollar to continue to fall, leading to BTC's growth.
๐กWhat's next? Now, most analysts agree that the key rate will decrease in 2024, which is again negative for the dollar and positive for risk assetsโ๏ธ
A weaker DXY = a positive for BTCโ๏ธ
The chart below shows the moments when 2 assets are correlated (circledโญ๏ธ). Note the DXY is inverted.
In the last post, I said that I expect the dollar to continue to fall, leading to BTC's growth.
๐กWhat's next? Now, most analysts agree that the key rate will decrease in 2024, which is again negative for the dollar and positive for risk assetsโ๏ธ
Feels Strategy
#Bitcoin/#SPX: In search of The Mid-cycle Peak Historically, the mid-cycle peak in $BTC coincides with the RSI approaching the overbought zone. Although at the beginning of the year, we rose quite high in the #RSI indicator, there was no overbought. Alsoโฆ
#Bitcoin/#SPX: In search of The ATH ๐
In the last post, I predicted when the mid-cycle peak would be, as you can see from the quoted post quite accuratelyโ๏ธ
Now about taking the marks of the past peak (69k).
This happens about 2 years after the bottom. When RSI, after taking a mid-cycle peak, again enters the zone of overbought values in $BTC โ๏ธ
In the last post, I predicted when the mid-cycle peak would be, as you can see from the quoted post quite accuratelyโ๏ธ
Now about taking the marks of the past peak (69k).
This happens about 2 years after the bottom. When RSI, after taking a mid-cycle peak, again enters the zone of overbought values in $BTC โ๏ธ