#Bitcoin oversold by RSI
In the moments between the bottom and the halving, this period also often coincides with the accumulating phase, where $BTC enters the oversold rsi, which is accompanied by a local peak or midcycle peak as in 2019.
From the point of view of RSI, our situation is more similar to the period before the halving in 2016. Also, at this moment, the price breaks through the baseline on the Kaltner channel and for some time consolidates above it.
Closer to the halving, it goes to the next zone, in our case, such a zone can be 40k+
In the moments between the bottom and the halving, this period also often coincides with the accumulating phase, where $BTC enters the oversold rsi, which is accompanied by a local peak or midcycle peak as in 2019.
From the point of view of RSI, our situation is more similar to the period before the halving in 2016. Also, at this moment, the price breaks through the baseline on the Kaltner channel and for some time consolidates above it.
Closer to the halving, it goes to the next zone, in our case, such a zone can be 40k+
What's up with #altcoins 👀
Let's look at the TOTAL3, as you can see from Fibonacci, this cycle of altcoins sold off much stronger, they did not test the 0.5 zone.
Even if we take into account the growth of stablecoins, altcoins still look oversold and I would expect an exit from the 0.23 zone.↗️
🧐Many alt-season skeptics say that #bitcoin dominance still has room to grow, here I can say that stablecoins and a larger alt-season in 2021 should be taken into account, this has not happened before. Therefore, if these factors are taken into account, the dominance of Bitcoin is now at quite high levels. This is also a possible positive for altcoins.
Let's look at the TOTAL3, as you can see from Fibonacci, this cycle of altcoins sold off much stronger, they did not test the 0.5 zone.
Even if we take into account the growth of stablecoins, altcoins still look oversold and I would expect an exit from the 0.23 zone.↗️
🧐Many alt-season skeptics say that #bitcoin dominance still has room to grow, here I can say that stablecoins and a larger alt-season in 2021 should be taken into account, this has not happened before. Therefore, if these factors are taken into account, the dominance of Bitcoin is now at quite high levels. This is also a possible positive for altcoins.
#Ethereum moment like never before
ETH does not have such a long history as Bitcoin, so cycle analysis is limited to the past cycle only. And we have a problem, last time there was a black swan.
In order to compare with the previous cycle, I corrected the situation as it would have looked, if no unlikely events had happened.
What can be seen is that after the end of the accumulation phase, the $ETH comes out from under the baseline, the Keltner channel, and consolidates for some time above it, knocking out the last impatient passengers before the bull run.
ETH does not have such a long history as Bitcoin, so cycle analysis is limited to the past cycle only. And we have a problem, last time there was a black swan.
In order to compare with the previous cycle, I corrected the situation as it would have looked, if no unlikely events had happened.
What can be seen is that after the end of the accumulation phase, the $ETH comes out from under the baseline, the Keltner channel, and consolidates for some time above it, knocking out the last impatient passengers before the bull run.
#Bitcoin whales liquidity 🐳🐳
From the point of view of the whales' liquidity, quite large purchases have appeared in the range of 33-35k, this level will most likely be a support where big players will select positions during the current correction.
A possible worst-case scenario is a fall to ~28k, which is the last acceptable good point for replenishing the Bitcoin position.
💡If such an opportunity arises, think ahead, it may not happen again in the next 2 years. Also remember that for the completeness of the picture, you need to look at other methods of analysis.
From the point of view of the whales' liquidity, quite large purchases have appeared in the range of 33-35k, this level will most likely be a support where big players will select positions during the current correction.
A possible worst-case scenario is a fall to ~28k, which is the last acceptable good point for replenishing the Bitcoin position.
💡If such an opportunity arises, think ahead, it may not happen again in the next 2 years. Also remember that for the completeness of the picture, you need to look at other methods of analysis.
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands 📊
When the price breaks through the upper line of the Bollinger channel in the past, it has led to a bull run.
Did it happen the first time? Not quite, historically, if the line was tested in the early stages of the bull market (closer to the bottom), the channel was mostly not broken and we went to the correction, otherwise it is called the mid-cycle peak.
💡If the retest was after the halving, there was a breakthrough and the $BTC price quickly moved up without protracted corrections↗️
🤔Now, most likely, since we are already closer to the halving, a scenario similar to 2016 may await us.
When the price breaks through the upper line of the Bollinger channel in the past, it has led to a bull run.
Did it happen the first time? Not quite, historically, if the line was tested in the early stages of the bull market (closer to the bottom), the channel was mostly not broken and we went to the correction, otherwise it is called the mid-cycle peak.
💡If the retest was after the halving, there was a breakthrough and the $BTC price quickly moved up without protracted corrections↗️
🤔Now, most likely, since we are already closer to the halving, a scenario similar to 2016 may await us.
#Bitcoin Mid-cycle Peak 🚀
As I predicted, it will happen by the end of 2023.
On the weekly RSI, we entered the overbought zone.
As I predicted, it will happen by the end of 2023.
On the weekly RSI, we entered the overbought zone.
#Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression ⤴️
In moments of short-term negative background, it is better to zoom out and focus on long-term strategies.
Log regression is based on the method of fundamental analysis - crypto adoption and diminishing returns. Works well in the long run🚀
In moments of short-term negative background, it is better to zoom out and focus on long-term strategies.
Log regression is based on the method of fundamental analysis - crypto adoption and diminishing returns. Works well in the long run🚀
#Bitcoin Liquidity 🌊🐳
What do the liquidity map and purchases of big players tell us.📝
There were many large purchases in the area, 33-34k is a potential support zone where they can occur again in the event of a correction.
Also, if the short-term players continue to short the highs with leverage, I think we can wait for them to be cut in the area of 38k (short squeeze).↗️
Although short-term corrections are possible, the long-term picture looks quite good. This and other indicators are also included in the Feels subscription, which is now at a huge discount🔥
What do the liquidity map and purchases of big players tell us.📝
There were many large purchases in the area, 33-34k is a potential support zone where they can occur again in the event of a correction.
Also, if the short-term players continue to short the highs with leverage, I think we can wait for them to be cut in the area of 38k (short squeeze).↗️
Although short-term corrections are possible, the long-term picture looks quite good. This and other indicators are also included in the Feels subscription, which is now at a huge discount🔥
#Bitcoin Gaussian Channel 🐍🐍
As we have said in previous posts, an exit above 0 in GaussianAO is quite a bullish sign and will take us to the 0.61 mark before the halving.✅
Since we have already broken out of the channel, I would expect a descent back into it, which means that even before the halving we will see one consolidation with a possible retest of the ~33k zone.
Closer to Q1 2024, I expect to reach a new level of 42k+↗️
As we have said in previous posts, an exit above 0 in GaussianAO is quite a bullish sign and will take us to the 0.61 mark before the halving.✅
Since we have already broken out of the channel, I would expect a descent back into it, which means that even before the halving we will see one consolidation with a possible retest of the ~33k zone.
Closer to Q1 2024, I expect to reach a new level of 42k+↗️
#Ethereum Keltner Channel 👀
In the last post, I said that I expect the end of the accumulation and good momentum with a breakout of the baseline↗️
And that happened. I can adjust only that, I do not expect such a deep correction, but only a retest of the support line. On the RSI, a retest of zone 50 is possible. After these moments, closer to spring, a clear uptrend can be expected⤴️
In the last post, I said that I expect the end of the accumulation and good momentum with a breakout of the baseline↗️
And that happened. I can adjust only that, I do not expect such a deep correction, but only a retest of the support line. On the RSI, a retest of zone 50 is possible. After these moments, closer to spring, a clear uptrend can be expected⤴️
#Bitcoin correlation with #Gold 🪙
I already wrote earlier that digital gold often correlates with classical gold.
The Spearman correlation clearly shows a short-term trend, and although there are moments when there is a discorrelation (red histogram), most of the moments are above 0 in green🟩 values.
💡I would say that it is a good trend that the correlation is increasingly positive because this is one of the main purposes of $BTC to become the new gold and a protective asset
I already wrote earlier that digital gold often correlates with classical gold.
The Spearman correlation clearly shows a short-term trend, and although there are moments when there is a discorrelation (red histogram), most of the moments are above 0 in green🟩 values.
💡I would say that it is a good trend that the correlation is increasingly positive because this is one of the main purposes of $BTC to become the new gold and a protective asset
#Bitcoin Log Regression ⤴️
Our current mid-cycle peak is starting to look more and more like 2019, not from the point of view of the phase of the cycle, but from a fairly strong moment and overbought.
The difference from the last time is that this time it is closer to halving, and it can be like the beginning of an active phase of growth, without essential corrections. Which, I think is unlikely, because the 2025 peak is still quite far away.⏳
A possible option is in the chart with a correction. It is also necessary to note that open interest is currently at record highs.
💡Therefore, I warn against trades with high leverage. If you took $BTC on the spot because of the flagship indicator and according to my advice in the area of 16-20k, you definitely have nothing to worry about.
Our current mid-cycle peak is starting to look more and more like 2019, not from the point of view of the phase of the cycle, but from a fairly strong moment and overbought.
The difference from the last time is that this time it is closer to halving, and it can be like the beginning of an active phase of growth, without essential corrections. Which, I think is unlikely, because the 2025 peak is still quite far away.⏳
A possible option is in the chart with a correction. It is also necessary to note that open interest is currently at record highs.
💡Therefore, I warn against trades with high leverage. If you took $BTC on the spot because of the flagship indicator and according to my advice in the area of 16-20k, you definitely have nothing to worry about.
#Bitcoin What a bull market looks like 👀
I have the impression that there hasn't been a bull market for so long. That most have forgotten what he looks like.
This does not mean that the BTC draws green bars every day and soon we will fly to ATH/100k/Moon 🚀
💡Let me remind you, in bull markets, the number of leveraged traders that big players want to cut often increases.
This leads to corrections, often supported by BMS. A break of this support is often called the end of a bull market, or a longer correction.
On the chart above, it is clearly visible that the entry into the RSI zone above 80 was often a local peak, and after 1-3 weeks a correction occurred.
I have the impression that there hasn't been a bull market for so long. That most have forgotten what he looks like.
This does not mean that the BTC draws green bars every day and soon we will fly to ATH/100k/Moon 🚀
💡Let me remind you, in bull markets, the number of leveraged traders that big players want to cut often increases.
This leads to corrections, often supported by BMS. A break of this support is often called the end of a bull market, or a longer correction.
On the chart above, it is clearly visible that the entry into the RSI zone above 80 was often a local peak, and after 1-3 weeks a correction occurred.
#Bitcoin Whale Liquidity 🐳🌊
Let's think about what a correction would look like if the selling zone of the whales became strong resistance.
In the last post, we looked at how often the BMS acts as a support, and that as soon as we move away a lot, a correction occurs.
Last time at the beginning of 2023, we were only 32% away (now 40%). Larger distances from BMS were only on the 2021 bull run, but then we have a halving + injection of quite large liquidity.
💡 These data tell us that in the medium term, we need to be ready for a correction to 37k, in the worst-case scenario to the 33k zone. From the long-term perspective, I am bullish↗️
Let's think about what a correction would look like if the selling zone of the whales became strong resistance.
In the last post, we looked at how often the BMS acts as a support, and that as soon as we move away a lot, a correction occurs.
Last time at the beginning of 2023, we were only 32% away (now 40%). Larger distances from BMS were only on the 2021 bull run, but then we have a halving + injection of quite large liquidity.
💡 These data tell us that in the medium term, we need to be ready for a correction to 37k, in the worst-case scenario to the 33k zone. From the long-term perspective, I am bullish↗️