#Bitcoin 3 Phases Theory 🚦

Today I saw a headline that surprised me "The current bear market has become the longest in the history of the crypto industry"📰

And I had a question about whether they were living in the past, or where they saw the bear market.🤔

💡I want to remind you that it ended with a duration of exactly one year, just like the last cycle. And it was much shorter than in 2014.

Now $BTC is +70% from the bottom, this is a classic phase of accumulation.

#Bitcoin Liquidity 🐳🌊

As I wrote in the last post, I rather expect the collection of liquidity in the region of 30k, which happened against the background of fake news about ETFs.

The main resistance that prevented us from rising above 31k and collecting the main liquidity above the range is the level of selling whales (orange zones).

💡Among the negative factors, the sales of big players also appeared at the 28k level, which may prevent from gaining a foothold over BMS. In this case, we will test zone 26k, and only then will we be able to collect liquidity above 31k.↗️

#Bitcoin is a possible trend change🔁

For almost a month, the price has been consolidating near the BMS, consolidation below the resistance zone often leads to a breakdown (need to wait for the closing of the weekly candle)👀

Also, the Wave Trend crossed into the bullish side and it seems that we can expect a green signal. In that case, I would expect local highs(31k+) in the next few weeks↗️

#Bitcoin Short-term 📈

At a time when most analysts were saying for the last 2 months that we will soon go to 20k, I did not stop repeating that I do not expect a fall, but on the contrary, growth in mid-October.

As we can see now, $BTC is gradually gaining a foothold over BMS, I assume that we may test it as support in the near future.

Also, entering the overbought zone on the RSI broke the bearish divergence. Which is also a positive signal↗️

#Gold / $BTC (Digital Gold) correlation 🪙

As we can see in the last 2 weeks, there is a strong positive correlation (green histogram). In the long term, this correlation will grow, because if you read the white paper of Bitcoin, it is primarily a protective asset created to fight crises of the 2008 type.

Why is gold rising now? In addition to macroeconomic reasons, geopolitical risks are added. There is increasing instability in Europe and the Middle East. In such situations, gold, and with the future approval of ETFs - #Bitcoin, looks like a good defensive asset.

#Bitcoin Liquidity Zones.

Lately, I have shown the liquidity map quite often, and this large zone is in the range of 31-34k, which we had to accurately capture. What happened. More than 300 million liquidations.

What happens next? As you can see, new short positions appear (36-37k), with large leverage, mostly after this there are 1-2 more local movements where short-term traders are knocked out.↗️

💡Also remember, even if you have FOMO, you don't need to buy $BTC at local highs, it's better to wait for a correction or analyze errors and draw conclusions about why you didn't do it earlier.

Spoiler: price during #Bitcoin halving 👀

In the past, the 0.618 Fibonacci mark quite often coincided with the price at the time of halving. Bitcoin's latest move backs up my words.

☝️And no, this does not mean that we cannot overcome this mark(~40k) by then. But this is as a guide in which direction the price is moving.↗️

Also, on the Gaussian oscillator, it can be seen that the histogram, which is now green, is leaving the phase of negative values, historically, this is becoming closer to the more rapid phase of the bull market

$POWR quite good growth↗️ after the green zone and fear(🟢+🟦).

Although greed did not appear this week, the asset reached the orange line, alert investors could record a profit.

📝Also, for such situations, I recommend placing limit orders in advance, so that even if you do not follow the market closely, you can close the deal relative to your strategy.

$FET Buy when it's scary 🟦

Although the asset did not quite reach the green line, the social analysis indicator works well here.

Also, now the altcoin shows a good movement, there is no greed🟥 yet, this tells us that the asset still has the potential to reach the orange zone.

#Bitcoin History Rhymes 📝

However if you look at how the price broke out of the supertrend baseline in 2020, you can say that history repeats itself.

In both cases, a year passed from the bottom of the cycle, and the price consolidated for some time below the trend line. Then a 20% breakout↗️

What's next? Will the rhyming continue and we will fall like in 2020? I think not, this poetry is over. Although some correction and retest of the 30k zone is possible, such falls as during the censored crisis are not expected. Here you can start looking for some rhyme with the cycle of 2016.👀

$POLY reaches the orange line.

After fear🟦 and the green zone, the price for some time could not get out of the resistance of the yellow line.

Now, against the background of market revival, the asset will soon reach the main goal, where I recommend fixing part of the profit.

$POLY & $POLYX - Greed🟥 and the orange signal.

I have fixed a significant part in these 2 assets. I don't understand why traders take additional risks on futures with leverage when you can invest with no less profit.

#Bitcoin RHODL ratio

Right now, $BTC seems to be creating a new accumulation zone, just like in 2020.

In the last post, I said that I expect a breakthrough of the purple line and a transition to another accumulation zone (>1,000) in the near future.

As we can see, this was happening, and most likely this new zone will be formed in the next few months, and its breakthrough will lead to the next more rapid growth

#Bitcoin correlation with China 💹

What effect does the change in monetary policy in China have on $BTC?

Here the influence is not as significant as with the dollar. But it is also well noticeable that the ratio of short-term bonds to long-term bonds, every time the trend line breaks (like now), bitcoin enters a faster growth phase↗️

Now we expect a break in the trend of the yuan, and this will be a confirmation of the transition of bitcoin to a more rapid phase of growth. 👀

💡Remember that in macroeconomics, financial markets are connected, and the injection of liquidity into one market can have a favorable effect on another.

$ARK enters the overheating phase🥵

Indicator signals are clearly visible, green + fear🟦, now orange + extreme greed🟥

Historically, this is the best time to fix a larger part of the profit, and I recommend closing the position completely when a red signal appears.

#Bitcoin oversold by RSI

In the moments between the bottom and the halving, this period also often coincides with the accumulating phase, where $BTC enters the oversold rsi, which is accompanied by a local peak or midcycle peak as in 2019.

From the point of view of RSI, our situation is more similar to the period before the halving in 2016. Also, at this moment, the price breaks through the baseline on the Kaltner channel and for some time consolidates above it.

Closer to the halving, it goes to the next zone, in our case, such a zone can be 40k+

$WEMIX The first echoes of greed appear🟥, I think the situation will be similar to what we saw in the spring.

Climb above the orange zone🟠, followed by extreme greed and descent to the yellow zone.

What's up with #altcoins 👀

Let's look at the TOTAL3, as you can see from Fibonacci, this cycle of altcoins sold off much stronger, they did not test the 0.5 zone.

Even if we take into account the growth of stablecoins, altcoins still look oversold and I would expect an exit from the 0.23 zone.↗️

🧐Many alt-season skeptics say that #bitcoin dominance still has room to grow, here I can say that stablecoins and a larger alt-season in 2021 should be taken into account, this has not happened before. Therefore, if these factors are taken into account, the dominance of Bitcoin is now at quite high levels. This is also a possible positive for altcoins.

#Ethereum moment like never before

ETH does not have such a long history as Bitcoin, so cycle analysis is limited to the past cycle only. And we have a problem, last time there was a black swan.

In order to compare with the previous cycle, I corrected the situation as it would have looked, if no unlikely events had happened.

What can be seen is that after the end of the accumulation phase, the $ETH comes out from under the baseline, the Keltner channel, and consolidates for some time above it, knocking out the last impatient passengers before the bull run.

$ORDI Everyone knows that in order to make money in the crypto market, you need to go against the crowd

But how to understand how the crowd is thinking now and separate yourself from it?

The answer is social analysis, you can see how long it takes to change from fear to greed🟥

#Bitcoin whales liquidity 🐳🐳

From the point of view of the whales' liquidity, quite large purchases have appeared in the range of 33-35k, this level will most likely be a support where big players will select positions during the current correction.

A possible worst-case scenario is a fall to ~28k, which is the last acceptable good point for replenishing the Bitcoin position.

💡If such an opportunity arises, think ahead, it may not happen again in the next 2 years. Also remember that for the completeness of the picture, you need to look at other methods of analysis.