Global Liquidity and #Bitcoin
Now it is obvious that we are facing a scenario more similar to the second one. And no, this does not mean that $BTC will necessarily fall, but it instead tells us that the wind on the market is blowing in the opposite direction🌬️
And growth, most likely, will be insignificant until the trend of quantitative tapering(QT) from the largest central banks does not change.
💡What I mean by "insignificant" is for example no ATH until the halving or no 100k+ in the first half of 2024. Nevertheless, there will be growth, and it will be more than the classic markets can suggest.
Now it is obvious that we are facing a scenario more similar to the second one. And no, this does not mean that $BTC will necessarily fall, but it instead tells us that the wind on the market is blowing in the opposite direction🌬️
And growth, most likely, will be insignificant until the trend of quantitative tapering(QT) from the largest central banks does not change.
💡What I mean by "insignificant" is for example no ATH until the halving or no 100k+ in the first half of 2024. Nevertheless, there will be growth, and it will be more than the classic markets can suggest.
#Bitcoin and Elections. You say "What do they have in common"?🤔
At a minimum, Bitcoin and elections have a similar 4-year cycle.
From past posts, we know that the stock market is quite often correlated with $BTC, with some minor exceptions.
💡Also, the correlation between the SP500 and the election cycle is already well-studied. The tendency is that towards the end of the term, you always want to show the economy from the best side. There may be an injection of liquidity.
Conclusion. If this trend continues, we can expect that in 2024 Bitcoin will have a fairly positive year.↗️
At a minimum, Bitcoin and elections have a similar 4-year cycle.
From past posts, we know that the stock market is quite often correlated with $BTC, with some minor exceptions.
💡Also, the correlation between the SP500 and the election cycle is already well-studied. The tendency is that towards the end of the term, you always want to show the economy from the best side. There may be an injection of liquidity.
Conclusion. If this trend continues, we can expect that in 2024 Bitcoin will have a fairly positive year.↗️
#Bitcoin, where whales collect liquidity 🐳🐳
The chart shows the zones where major players opened and closed positions. As you can see, we are now stuck between zones 25k🟩 and 30k🟧
I also added a $BTC liquidity map to better understand where liquidity will potentially be collected in the future.
💡As we can see, every correction is actively bought and this does not allow to collect liquidations at lower levels (although it is quite large there). We will definitely collect liquidity above the 31k zone, but I doubt whether the price will drop below 24k.
The chart shows the zones where major players opened and closed positions. As you can see, we are now stuck between zones 25k🟩 and 30k🟧
I also added a $BTC liquidity map to better understand where liquidity will potentially be collected in the future.
💡As we can see, every correction is actively bought and this does not allow to collect liquidations at lower levels (although it is quite large there). We will definitely collect liquidity above the 31k zone, but I doubt whether the price will drop below 24k.
#Bitcoin why "We are NOT here"❌
For the last 2 years, every analyst has attached a pattern from the fall 2020 bull run and presented it to the audience as a high-class analysis-forecast "We are here", promising that $BTC will do x6.
Let me explain why we are not here:
- First, there is still half a year until the halving.
- Secondly, only a year has passed since the bottom, and the accumulation phase is still ongoing.
- The third and most important explanation is that it happened after the "censored" crisis, after which a lot of injection of liquidity, pumped up most financial markets. It is because of this that we had a double top, where we initially grew too quickly, went on a correction, and then there was a true top at the end of 2021.
💡So, we will have a different situation after the halving, similar to the 2016 cycle.
For the last 2 years, every analyst has attached a pattern from the fall 2020 bull run and presented it to the audience as a high-class analysis-forecast "We are here", promising that $BTC will do x6.
Let me explain why we are not here:
- First, there is still half a year until the halving.
- Secondly, only a year has passed since the bottom, and the accumulation phase is still ongoing.
- The third and most important explanation is that it happened after the "censored" crisis, after which a lot of injection of liquidity, pumped up most financial markets. It is because of this that we had a double top, where we initially grew too quickly, went on a correction, and then there was a true top at the end of 2021.
💡So, we will have a different situation after the halving, similar to the 2016 cycle.
#Bitcoin correlation with USD/CNY💹
The change in monetary policy in China also has an impact on $BTC. This is clearly visible on the chart of the ratio of short-term bonds to long-term bonds, every time the trend line breaks, bitcoin enters a faster growth phase.↗️
💡The chart of the yuan shows a similar picture. It just happens a little later. It's a similar moment now, the bond trend is on the verge of breaking, and the yuan still has room to spare.
The change in monetary policy in China also has an impact on $BTC. This is clearly visible on the chart of the ratio of short-term bonds to long-term bonds, every time the trend line breaks, bitcoin enters a faster growth phase.↗️
💡The chart of the yuan shows a similar picture. It just happens a little later. It's a similar moment now, the bond trend is on the verge of breaking, and the yuan still has room to spare.
#Dollar / #Bitcoin correlation
I've already described before, and it's clear to everyone the correlation, a weaker DXY = a positive for BTC.
The chart below shows the moments when 2 assets are correlated (circled⭕️).
💡Now the dollar is breaking its short-term trend and will most likely continue its downward movement. On our inverted chart, this is an upward movement that will provide additional fuel for Bitcoin growth in the short term.
I've already described before, and it's clear to everyone the correlation, a weaker DXY = a positive for BTC.
The chart below shows the moments when 2 assets are correlated (circled⭕️).
💡Now the dollar is breaking its short-term trend and will most likely continue its downward movement. On our inverted chart, this is an upward movement that will provide additional fuel for Bitcoin growth in the short term.
#Bitcoin 3 Phases Theory 🚦
Today I saw a headline that surprised me "The current bear market has become the longest in the history of the crypto industry"📰
And I had a question about whether they were living in the past, or where they saw the bear market.🤔
💡I want to remind you that it ended with a duration of exactly one year, just like the last cycle. And it was much shorter than in 2014.
Now $BTC is +70% from the bottom, this is a classic phase of accumulation.
Today I saw a headline that surprised me "The current bear market has become the longest in the history of the crypto industry"📰
And I had a question about whether they were living in the past, or where they saw the bear market.🤔
💡I want to remind you that it ended with a duration of exactly one year, just like the last cycle. And it was much shorter than in 2014.
Now $BTC is +70% from the bottom, this is a classic phase of accumulation.
Feels Strategy
#Bitcoin, where whales collect liquidity 🐳🐳 The chart shows the zones where major players opened and closed positions. As you can see, we are now stuck between zones 25k🟩 and 30k🟧 I also added a $BTC liquidity map to better understand where liquidity will…
#Bitcoin Liquidity 🐳🌊
As I wrote in the last post, I rather expect the collection of liquidity in the region of 30k, which happened against the background of fake news about ETFs.
The main resistance that prevented us from rising above 31k and collecting the main liquidity above the range is the level of selling whales (orange zones).
💡Among the negative factors, the sales of big players also appeared at the 28k level, which may prevent from gaining a foothold over BMS. In this case, we will test zone 26k, and only then will we be able to collect liquidity above 31k.↗️
As I wrote in the last post, I rather expect the collection of liquidity in the region of 30k, which happened against the background of fake news about ETFs.
The main resistance that prevented us from rising above 31k and collecting the main liquidity above the range is the level of selling whales (orange zones).
💡Among the negative factors, the sales of big players also appeared at the 28k level, which may prevent from gaining a foothold over BMS. In this case, we will test zone 26k, and only then will we be able to collect liquidity above 31k.↗️
#Bitcoin is a possible trend change🔁
For almost a month, the price has been consolidating near the BMS, consolidation below the resistance zone often leads to a breakdown (need to wait for the closing of the weekly candle)👀
Also, the Wave Trend crossed into the bullish side and it seems that we can expect a green signal. In that case, I would expect local highs(31k+) in the next few weeks↗️
For almost a month, the price has been consolidating near the BMS, consolidation below the resistance zone often leads to a breakdown (need to wait for the closing of the weekly candle)👀
Also, the Wave Trend crossed into the bullish side and it seems that we can expect a green signal. In that case, I would expect local highs(31k+) in the next few weeks↗️
Feels Strategy
#Bitcoin Short-term (Update)📈 Hidden bearish divergence and strong BMS resistance led to the fall. It seems that we are in for events somewhat similar to the previous cycle, a decline and a retest of resistance in about a month. 💡Also, if there is a consolidation…
#Bitcoin Short-term 📈
At a time when most analysts were saying for the last 2 months that we will soon go to 20k, I did not stop repeating that I do not expect a fall, but on the contrary, growth in mid-October.
As we can see now, $BTC is gradually gaining a foothold over BMS, I assume that we may test it as support in the near future.
Also, entering the overbought zone on the RSI broke the bearish divergence. Which is also a positive signal↗️
At a time when most analysts were saying for the last 2 months that we will soon go to 20k, I did not stop repeating that I do not expect a fall, but on the contrary, growth in mid-October.
As we can see now, $BTC is gradually gaining a foothold over BMS, I assume that we may test it as support in the near future.
Also, entering the overbought zone on the RSI broke the bearish divergence. Which is also a positive signal↗️
#Gold / $BTC (Digital Gold) correlation 🪙
As we can see in the last 2 weeks, there is a strong positive correlation (green histogram). In the long term, this correlation will grow, because if you read the white paper of Bitcoin, it is primarily a protective asset created to fight crises of the 2008 type.
Why is gold rising now? In addition to macroeconomic reasons, geopolitical risks are added. There is increasing instability in Europe and the Middle East. In such situations, gold, and with the future approval of ETFs - #Bitcoin, looks like a good defensive asset.
As we can see in the last 2 weeks, there is a strong positive correlation (green histogram). In the long term, this correlation will grow, because if you read the white paper of Bitcoin, it is primarily a protective asset created to fight crises of the 2008 type.
Why is gold rising now? In addition to macroeconomic reasons, geopolitical risks are added. There is increasing instability in Europe and the Middle East. In such situations, gold, and with the future approval of ETFs - #Bitcoin, looks like a good defensive asset.
#Bitcoin Liquidity Zones.
Lately, I have shown the liquidity map quite often, and this large zone is in the range of 31-34k, which we had to accurately capture. What happened. More than 300 million liquidations.
What happens next? As you can see, new short positions appear (36-37k), with large leverage, mostly after this there are 1-2 more local movements where short-term traders are knocked out.↗️
💡Also remember, even if you have FOMO, you don't need to buy $BTC at local highs, it's better to wait for a correction or analyze errors and draw conclusions about why you didn't do it earlier.
Lately, I have shown the liquidity map quite often, and this large zone is in the range of 31-34k, which we had to accurately capture. What happened. More than 300 million liquidations.
What happens next? As you can see, new short positions appear (36-37k), with large leverage, mostly after this there are 1-2 more local movements where short-term traders are knocked out.↗️
💡Also remember, even if you have FOMO, you don't need to buy $BTC at local highs, it's better to wait for a correction or analyze errors and draw conclusions about why you didn't do it earlier.
Spoiler: price during #Bitcoin halving 👀
In the past, the 0.618 Fibonacci mark quite often coincided with the price at the time of halving. Bitcoin's latest move backs up my words.
☝️And no, this does not mean that we cannot overcome this mark(~40k) by then. But this is as a guide in which direction the price is moving.↗️
Also, on the Gaussian oscillator, it can be seen that the histogram, which is now green, is leaving the phase of negative values, historically, this is becoming closer to the more rapid phase of the bull market
In the past, the 0.618 Fibonacci mark quite often coincided with the price at the time of halving. Bitcoin's latest move backs up my words.
☝️And no, this does not mean that we cannot overcome this mark(~40k) by then. But this is as a guide in which direction the price is moving.↗️
Also, on the Gaussian oscillator, it can be seen that the histogram, which is now green, is leaving the phase of negative values, historically, this is becoming closer to the more rapid phase of the bull market
$POWR quite good growth↗️ after the green zone and fear(🟢+🟦).
Although greed did not appear this week, the asset reached the orange line, alert investors could record a profit.
📝Also, for such situations, I recommend placing limit orders in advance, so that even if you do not follow the market closely, you can close the deal relative to your strategy.
Although greed did not appear this week, the asset reached the orange line, alert investors could record a profit.
📝Also, for such situations, I recommend placing limit orders in advance, so that even if you do not follow the market closely, you can close the deal relative to your strategy.
#Bitcoin History Rhymes 📝
However if you look at how the price broke out of the supertrend baseline in 2020, you can say that history repeats itself.
In both cases, a year passed from the bottom of the cycle, and the price consolidated for some time below the trend line. Then a 20% breakout↗️
What's next? Will the rhyming continue and we will fall like in 2020? I think not, this poetry is over. Although some correction and retest of the 30k zone is possible, such falls as during the censored crisis are not expected. Here you can start looking for some rhyme with the cycle of 2016.👀
However if you look at how the price broke out of the supertrend baseline in 2020, you can say that history repeats itself.
In both cases, a year passed from the bottom of the cycle, and the price consolidated for some time below the trend line. Then a 20% breakout↗️
What's next? Will the rhyming continue and we will fall like in 2020? I think not, this poetry is over. Although some correction and retest of the 30k zone is possible, such falls as during the censored crisis are not expected. Here you can start looking for some rhyme with the cycle of 2016.👀
#Bitcoin RHODL ratio
Right now, $BTC seems to be creating a new accumulation zone, just like in 2020.
In the last post, I said that I expect a breakthrough of the purple line and a transition to another accumulation zone (>1,000) in the near future.
As we can see, this was happening, and most likely this new zone will be formed in the next few months, and its breakthrough will lead to the next more rapid growth
Right now, $BTC seems to be creating a new accumulation zone, just like in 2020.
In the last post, I said that I expect a breakthrough of the purple line and a transition to another accumulation zone (>1,000) in the near future.
As we can see, this was happening, and most likely this new zone will be formed in the next few months, and its breakthrough will lead to the next more rapid growth
#Bitcoin correlation with China 💹
What effect does the change in monetary policy in China have on $BTC?
Here the influence is not as significant as with the dollar. But it is also well noticeable that the ratio of short-term bonds to long-term bonds, every time the trend line breaks (like now), bitcoin enters a faster growth phase↗️
Now we expect a break in the trend of the yuan, and this will be a confirmation of the transition of bitcoin to a more rapid phase of growth. 👀
💡Remember that in macroeconomics, financial markets are connected, and the injection of liquidity into one market can have a favorable effect on another.
What effect does the change in monetary policy in China have on $BTC?
Here the influence is not as significant as with the dollar. But it is also well noticeable that the ratio of short-term bonds to long-term bonds, every time the trend line breaks (like now), bitcoin enters a faster growth phase↗️
Now we expect a break in the trend of the yuan, and this will be a confirmation of the transition of bitcoin to a more rapid phase of growth. 👀
💡Remember that in macroeconomics, financial markets are connected, and the injection of liquidity into one market can have a favorable effect on another.