(2/2) Neutral: Although in the short term, there is no positive from the side of adoption of BTC in the form of acceptance of #ETF, although most are sure that long-term ETF will be accepted.
💡As we can see, the situation is not entirely clear-cut, I would expect the continuation of consolidations with a transition below the 25k zone, but with possible local rebounds closer to October.
💡As we can see, the situation is not entirely clear-cut, I would expect the continuation of consolidations with a transition below the 25k zone, but with possible local rebounds closer to October.
#Bitcoin Keltner Channel:
The width of the channel continues to narrow, we saw a similar consolidation in 2020. It can also be seen that the Keltner Channel's baseline has been the main obstacle to price growth in the last few months.
I think by the end of the year $BTC will deal with this resistance📈
The width of the channel continues to narrow, we saw a similar consolidation in 2020. It can also be seen that the Keltner Channel's baseline has been the main obstacle to price growth in the last few months.
I think by the end of the year $BTC will deal with this resistance📈
#Bitcoin Death Cross and why it's not a big deal.
Crossing moving averages is just a change in trend. Depending on the length of the MA, this is a short-term or long-term trend change.
There is also a situation such as 2020 and now, when the market is sideways, such signals of a trend change will turn into noise, because the price does not change.
💡What is interesting can still be understood from such an analysis. This is the distance of the price from 200 MA. Below is an oscillator that indicates local overbought in $BTC. It can be seen that the last mid-cycle peak was quite pronounced, which led to strong local overheating, after such moments a longer time is needed for correction🟠. Now this did not happen, this is one of the arguments why we will most likely not fall like in 2020 (below 20k).
Crossing moving averages is just a change in trend. Depending on the length of the MA, this is a short-term or long-term trend change.
There is also a situation such as 2020 and now, when the market is sideways, such signals of a trend change will turn into noise, because the price does not change.
💡What is interesting can still be understood from such an analysis. This is the distance of the price from 200 MA. Below is an oscillator that indicates local overbought in $BTC. It can be seen that the last mid-cycle peak was quite pronounced, which led to strong local overheating, after such moments a longer time is needed for correction🟠. Now this did not happen, this is one of the arguments why we will most likely not fall like in 2020 (below 20k).
#Bitcoin short-term key levels👀
$BTC is approaching the key zone of RSI 50, as well as a possible retest as resistance to BMS (if we overcome the value of RSI 50).
To be sure that the breakout on the rsi is not false, I would recommend waiting for the 55 mark, after reaching this zone, the rsi rarely falls back into bearish mode below 50.
It is also necessary to watch for the presence of bearish divergences if we do not surpass the previous local high (August 30).
💡I remind you that this is only a short-term technical analysis. For the completeness of the picture, use different methods of analysis and focus on the long-term horizon of planning.
$BTC is approaching the key zone of RSI 50, as well as a possible retest as resistance to BMS (if we overcome the value of RSI 50).
To be sure that the breakout on the rsi is not false, I would recommend waiting for the 55 mark, after reaching this zone, the rsi rarely falls back into bearish mode below 50.
It is also necessary to watch for the presence of bearish divergences if we do not surpass the previous local high (August 30).
💡I remind you that this is only a short-term technical analysis. For the completeness of the picture, use different methods of analysis and focus on the long-term horizon of planning.
#Bitcoin VAH resistance before halving
Looking at a fixed range volume profile for the period of bear markets (from peak to bottom), you can see where the volume accumulated when the price fell.
One such volume point is VAH (Value Area High). This range is helpful, because often the price in the future adheres to this range, and VAH is the maximum point of this range.
💡As you can see from the chart in the early phases of the bull market, before the halving, this zone acts as a significant resistance, and $BTC deals with it only in the approaching halving.
Looking at a fixed range volume profile for the period of bear markets (from peak to bottom), you can see where the volume accumulated when the price fell.
One such volume point is VAH (Value Area High). This range is helpful, because often the price in the future adheres to this range, and VAH is the maximum point of this range.
💡As you can see from the chart in the early phases of the bull market, before the halving, this zone acts as a significant resistance, and $BTC deals with it only in the approaching halving.
Quite an interesting indicator. I previously left a similar indicator at the development stage, under the development name support trend channel.
This indicator can be useful for following the trend and finding short-term support in #Bitcoin.
The disadvantages of this type of indicator are that its support lines are quite variable and change as soon as the price takes new highs/lows. For this, I added trend change labels.
This $BTC indicator is not quite ready yet, if you would like to see it more often in posts or subscriptions, write feedback, and I will know that you are interested in it and will improve it.
This indicator can be useful for following the trend and finding short-term support in #Bitcoin.
The disadvantages of this type of indicator are that its support lines are quite variable and change as soon as the price takes new highs/lows. For this, I added trend change labels.
This $BTC indicator is not quite ready yet, if you would like to see it more often in posts or subscriptions, write feedback, and I will know that you are interested in it and will improve it.
#Bitcoin short-term key levels. We're anchored above 50 on the RSI, which is a positive sign.
BMS (Bull Market Support) still poses significant resistance, and I believe it will take a few more days to challenge this resistance. Additionally, it seems like a bearish divergence is forming. However, as I mentioned earlier, we've had scenarios (B) where divergences didn't play out, so it's entirely possible.
Even if BMS pushes back $BTC price as resistance, I expect a new attempt to test BMS and a breakthrough in the coming 2 months
BMS (Bull Market Support) still poses significant resistance, and I believe it will take a few more days to challenge this resistance. Additionally, it seems like a bearish divergence is forming. However, as I mentioned earlier, we've had scenarios (B) where divergences didn't play out, so it's entirely possible.
Even if BMS pushes back $BTC price as resistance, I expect a new attempt to test BMS and a breakthrough in the coming 2 months
#Ethereum Comparison of cycles 🔁
The similarities are much more and they are more obvious, let's talk about the differences.
- As we can see, after the first entry in the last cycle, there was a second(2) entry into the green zone🟢, but this time there was no such event.
- The mid-cycle peak last time was much more pronounced (3), and greed🟥 appeared.
- Last time we were met by a black swan, in the basic scenario we do not expect this now. (4)
However, I see no reason why $ETH should not reach the yellow line(5). It will most likely be in 2024.
The similarities are much more and they are more obvious, let's talk about the differences.
- As we can see, after the first entry in the last cycle, there was a second(2) entry into the green zone🟢, but this time there was no such event.
- The mid-cycle peak last time was much more pronounced (3), and greed🟥 appeared.
- Last time we were met by a black swan, in the basic scenario we do not expect this now. (4)
However, I see no reason why $ETH should not reach the yellow line(5). It will most likely be in 2024.
#Bitcoin Fibonacci Resistance 🧮
In past cycles, the 0.618 Fibonacci mark quite often coincided with the price at the time of halving. After that, a more rapid phase of growth began and there was no return below this price.
Also, the short-term and long-term trend is clearly visible from the background change in the Gaussian channel and GA Oscillator.
💡As we can see, $BTC still has some time to consolidate, but with a high probability of a few months closer to the halving, it will start to move upwards⤴️
In past cycles, the 0.618 Fibonacci mark quite often coincided with the price at the time of halving. After that, a more rapid phase of growth began and there was no return below this price.
Also, the short-term and long-term trend is clearly visible from the background change in the Gaussian channel and GA Oscillator.
💡As we can see, $BTC still has some time to consolidate, but with a high probability of a few months closer to the halving, it will start to move upwards⤴️
#Bitcoin Short-term (Update)📈
Hidden bearish divergence and strong BMS resistance led to the fall.
It seems that we are in for events somewhat similar to the previous cycle, a decline and a retest of resistance in about a month.
💡Also, if there is a consolidation near the local minimum, most likely we will take away liquidity from traders, but I would not expect a drop below 24k, I also think that the situation will improve closer to the middle of October.
Hidden bearish divergence and strong BMS resistance led to the fall.
It seems that we are in for events somewhat similar to the previous cycle, a decline and a retest of resistance in about a month.
💡Also, if there is a consolidation near the local minimum, most likely we will take away liquidity from traders, but I would not expect a drop below 24k, I also think that the situation will improve closer to the middle of October.
#Bitcoin Bollinger Band👀
The indicator continues to show some of the thinnest channel width values. This often happened during the accumulation phase (not to be confused with distribution)
It is also worth noting that such low marks on BBW during accumulation do not last long and after a while, the $BTC price is pressed to the upper part of the channel↗️
The indicator continues to show some of the thinnest channel width values. This often happened during the accumulation phase (not to be confused with distribution)
It is also worth noting that such low marks on BBW during accumulation do not last long and after a while, the $BTC price is pressed to the upper part of the channel↗️
#Bitcoin Long-Term Power Law📈
Quite an interesting model, which I last shared when $BTC was at 16k.
💡Although there is a question about the resistance of the upper part of this channel, the middle line and the low are still working quite well and in my opinion will work for a minimum until the next cycle.
Quite an interesting model, which I last shared when $BTC was at 16k.
💡Although there is a question about the resistance of the upper part of this channel, the middle line and the low are still working quite well and in my opinion will work for a minimum until the next cycle.
#Bitcoin Fractals Comparison🧮
$BTC is currently testing the upper part of the Bollinger channel and also trying to break the trend line. Let's consider how similar situations looked in the last year.
💡In the past, after unsuccessful attempts to fix above 50 on the rsi, as well as after the Bollinger resistance and the trend line, the price dropped for a few days to the lower part of the channel, until then it made its way up. So, with a high probability, it will happen in the next 2 weeks↗️.
$BTC is currently testing the upper part of the Bollinger channel and also trying to break the trend line. Let's consider how similar situations looked in the last year.
💡In the past, after unsuccessful attempts to fix above 50 on the rsi, as well as after the Bollinger resistance and the trend line, the price dropped for a few days to the lower part of the channel, until then it made its way up. So, with a high probability, it will happen in the next 2 weeks↗️.
#Bitcoin Fundamentals ⚡️
The production cost of Bitcoin historically works as a bottom indicator, because below this price it is simply not profitable to mine $BTC.
Bitcoin's energy value is the fundamental price, historically, Bitcoin has followed it, deviating to one side or the other depending on the moment of the cycle🔄
As for seasonality, although most expect a positive one from October, I think this is a special case when the majority will not be mistaken🗓️
The production cost of Bitcoin historically works as a bottom indicator, because below this price it is simply not profitable to mine $BTC.
Bitcoin's energy value is the fundamental price, historically, Bitcoin has followed it, deviating to one side or the other depending on the moment of the cycle🔄
As for seasonality, although most expect a positive one from October, I think this is a special case when the majority will not be mistaken🗓️
Global Liquidity and #Bitcoin
Now it is obvious that we are facing a scenario more similar to the second one. And no, this does not mean that $BTC will necessarily fall, but it instead tells us that the wind on the market is blowing in the opposite direction🌬️
And growth, most likely, will be insignificant until the trend of quantitative tapering(QT) from the largest central banks does not change.
💡What I mean by "insignificant" is for example no ATH until the halving or no 100k+ in the first half of 2024. Nevertheless, there will be growth, and it will be more than the classic markets can suggest.
Now it is obvious that we are facing a scenario more similar to the second one. And no, this does not mean that $BTC will necessarily fall, but it instead tells us that the wind on the market is blowing in the opposite direction🌬️
And growth, most likely, will be insignificant until the trend of quantitative tapering(QT) from the largest central banks does not change.
💡What I mean by "insignificant" is for example no ATH until the halving or no 100k+ in the first half of 2024. Nevertheless, there will be growth, and it will be more than the classic markets can suggest.
#Bitcoin and Elections. You say "What do they have in common"?🤔
At a minimum, Bitcoin and elections have a similar 4-year cycle.
From past posts, we know that the stock market is quite often correlated with $BTC, with some minor exceptions.
💡Also, the correlation between the SP500 and the election cycle is already well-studied. The tendency is that towards the end of the term, you always want to show the economy from the best side. There may be an injection of liquidity.
Conclusion. If this trend continues, we can expect that in 2024 Bitcoin will have a fairly positive year.↗️
At a minimum, Bitcoin and elections have a similar 4-year cycle.
From past posts, we know that the stock market is quite often correlated with $BTC, with some minor exceptions.
💡Also, the correlation between the SP500 and the election cycle is already well-studied. The tendency is that towards the end of the term, you always want to show the economy from the best side. There may be an injection of liquidity.
Conclusion. If this trend continues, we can expect that in 2024 Bitcoin will have a fairly positive year.↗️
#Bitcoin, where whales collect liquidity 🐳🐳
The chart shows the zones where major players opened and closed positions. As you can see, we are now stuck between zones 25k🟩 and 30k🟧
I also added a $BTC liquidity map to better understand where liquidity will potentially be collected in the future.
💡As we can see, every correction is actively bought and this does not allow to collect liquidations at lower levels (although it is quite large there). We will definitely collect liquidity above the 31k zone, but I doubt whether the price will drop below 24k.
The chart shows the zones where major players opened and closed positions. As you can see, we are now stuck between zones 25k🟩 and 30k🟧
I also added a $BTC liquidity map to better understand where liquidity will potentially be collected in the future.
💡As we can see, every correction is actively bought and this does not allow to collect liquidations at lower levels (although it is quite large there). We will definitely collect liquidity above the 31k zone, but I doubt whether the price will drop below 24k.
#Bitcoin why "We are NOT here"❌
For the last 2 years, every analyst has attached a pattern from the fall 2020 bull run and presented it to the audience as a high-class analysis-forecast "We are here", promising that $BTC will do x6.
Let me explain why we are not here:
- First, there is still half a year until the halving.
- Secondly, only a year has passed since the bottom, and the accumulation phase is still ongoing.
- The third and most important explanation is that it happened after the "censored" crisis, after which a lot of injection of liquidity, pumped up most financial markets. It is because of this that we had a double top, where we initially grew too quickly, went on a correction, and then there was a true top at the end of 2021.
💡So, we will have a different situation after the halving, similar to the 2016 cycle.
For the last 2 years, every analyst has attached a pattern from the fall 2020 bull run and presented it to the audience as a high-class analysis-forecast "We are here", promising that $BTC will do x6.
Let me explain why we are not here:
- First, there is still half a year until the halving.
- Secondly, only a year has passed since the bottom, and the accumulation phase is still ongoing.
- The third and most important explanation is that it happened after the "censored" crisis, after which a lot of injection of liquidity, pumped up most financial markets. It is because of this that we had a double top, where we initially grew too quickly, went on a correction, and then there was a true top at the end of 2021.
💡So, we will have a different situation after the halving, similar to the 2016 cycle.
#Bitcoin correlation with USD/CNY💹
The change in monetary policy in China also has an impact on $BTC. This is clearly visible on the chart of the ratio of short-term bonds to long-term bonds, every time the trend line breaks, bitcoin enters a faster growth phase.↗️
💡The chart of the yuan shows a similar picture. It just happens a little later. It's a similar moment now, the bond trend is on the verge of breaking, and the yuan still has room to spare.
The change in monetary policy in China also has an impact on $BTC. This is clearly visible on the chart of the ratio of short-term bonds to long-term bonds, every time the trend line breaks, bitcoin enters a faster growth phase.↗️
💡The chart of the yuan shows a similar picture. It just happens a little later. It's a similar moment now, the bond trend is on the verge of breaking, and the yuan still has room to spare.
#Dollar / #Bitcoin correlation
I've already described before, and it's clear to everyone the correlation, a weaker DXY = a positive for BTC.
The chart below shows the moments when 2 assets are correlated (circled⭕️).
💡Now the dollar is breaking its short-term trend and will most likely continue its downward movement. On our inverted chart, this is an upward movement that will provide additional fuel for Bitcoin growth in the short term.
I've already described before, and it's clear to everyone the correlation, a weaker DXY = a positive for BTC.
The chart below shows the moments when 2 assets are correlated (circled⭕️).
💡Now the dollar is breaking its short-term trend and will most likely continue its downward movement. On our inverted chart, this is an upward movement that will provide additional fuel for Bitcoin growth in the short term.