So far, nothing interesting is happening on the #Bitcoin chart and it looks like a stablecoin with a peg of 26k.
I remind you that with the help of Feels Strategy indicators, you can find interesting #investment setups, even in such a market as now.
As can be seen after buying $AKT on the green🟢 + fear signal, the asset has reached the orange 🟠 + greed zone, which is statically a good time to lock in profits.
I remind you that with the help of Feels Strategy indicators, you can find interesting #investment setups, even in such a market as now.
As can be seen after buying $AKT on the green🟢 + fear signal, the asset has reached the orange 🟠 + greed zone, which is statically a good time to lock in profits.
Why EMA200 is a bad support zone for #Bitcoin
Many analysts say that $BTC found its support at the 200-week ema, but if you look at the past cycles, it never acted as a support, Every time when the price fell, they pierced this line like a hot knife through butter.
As for whether this area🟥 is good for hoarding bitcoin? Yes, for spot #investments, great.
Many analysts say that $BTC found its support at the 200-week ema, but if you look at the past cycles, it never acted as a support, Every time when the price fell, they pierced this line like a hot knife through butter.
As for whether this area🟥 is good for hoarding bitcoin? Yes, for spot #investments, great.
#Bitcoin Fractals Comparison
Basically, when $BTC is compared to past cycles a fractal is placed from the beginning of the year, in general, it is useful and shows seasonality well.
But I like the alternative version of the overlay when we take the fractal from the moment of the change of phases of the bitcoin cycle when bitcoin goes from the bear phase, reaches the bottom, and goes into the accumulation phase before the bull run.
As can be seen with the 2nd option on the right on the chart, in this case, it is quite clear how the wedges broke through at the same time. And the crash of Bitfinex coincides with the crash of FTX.
Basically, when $BTC is compared to past cycles a fractal is placed from the beginning of the year, in general, it is useful and shows seasonality well.
But I like the alternative version of the overlay when we take the fractal from the moment of the change of phases of the bitcoin cycle when bitcoin goes from the bear phase, reaches the bottom, and goes into the accumulation phase before the bull run.
As can be seen with the 2nd option on the right on the chart, in this case, it is quite clear how the wedges broke through at the same time. And the crash of Bitfinex coincides with the crash of FTX.
#Dollar / #Bitcoin correlation
The impact of the dollar on $BTC is clearly visible, as soon as the dollar weakens, it often has a positive effect on the growth of bitcoin. Moments when 2 assets are correlated are circled below.
What awaits the dollar index?💵
To put it simply, the main strengthening factor in 2022 was the growth of key rates, the main fall of the dollar is expected when the Fed starts to lower the rate, then the turquoise line will start to grow (since the $DXY is inverted on the chart), which will positively affect the growth of the price of bitcoin🚀
The impact of the dollar on $BTC is clearly visible, as soon as the dollar weakens, it often has a positive effect on the growth of bitcoin. Moments when 2 assets are correlated are circled below.
What awaits the dollar index?💵
To put it simply, the main strengthening factor in 2022 was the growth of key rates, the main fall of the dollar is expected when the Fed starts to lower the rate, then the turquoise line will start to grow (since the $DXY is inverted on the chart), which will positively affect the growth of the price of bitcoin🚀
$NVDA - The main beneficiary of the AI boom this year, recent reports have shown that demand for chips is not slowing down.
The main buy/sell zones are clearly visible on the Keltner channel. As you can see, the #NVDA is currently entering the red zone.
The main buy/sell zones are clearly visible on the Keltner channel. As you can see, the #NVDA is currently entering the red zone.
#Bitcoin Gaussian Channel 🐍
The background of the channel has changed to red🟥, which indicates a correction in the medium-term perspective.
Even though now the majority of people think that this is a terrible dump of $BTC, I want to remind you that even in 2017, we had corrections of -40% and these were considered healthy corrections in the bull market.
So be patient and think coldly🧠
The background of the channel has changed to red🟥, which indicates a correction in the medium-term perspective.
Even though now the majority of people think that this is a terrible dump of $BTC, I want to remind you that even in 2017, we had corrections of -40% and these were considered healthy corrections in the bull market.
So be patient and think coldly🧠
#Bitcoin Logarithmic regression 📈
$BTC is testing the upper line of the green band as support, a similar situation we had at the end of 2019.
In the quoted post, you can see how long I have been using this model, even though it gets some corrections because it is a regression, it still works.
$BTC is testing the upper line of the green band as support, a similar situation we had at the end of 2019.
In the quoted post, you can see how long I have been using this model, even though it gets some corrections because it is a regression, it still works.
#Bitcoin Bulls still dominate🐂
The Average Sentiment Oscillator (ASO) clearly shows that the bulls are still dominating as long as the blue line is above 50.
If you look at the 2016 $BTC bull market, then the 50 zone was a strong support for the bulls. In the situation of 2019, it can be seen that we were heavily overbought, and therefore, the bears took over for a while (the red line rose above 50).
The Average Sentiment Oscillator (ASO) clearly shows that the bulls are still dominating as long as the blue line is above 50.
If you look at the 2016 $BTC bull market, then the 50 zone was a strong support for the bulls. In the situation of 2019, it can be seen that we were heavily overbought, and therefore, the bears took over for a while (the red line rose above 50).
Feels Strategy
A good investor prepares for different scenarios, rather than relying on one. Although a fractal reversal in technical analysis is unlikely, I'm sharing a possible scenario for #Bitcoin. This is one of the worst-case scenarios we might encounter. Be ready…
At the time of publishing this worst-case scenario, we tested 31k and most of the people at that moment were writing about ATH before halving and how #Bitcoin will take 1 million dollars.
Now several weeks have passed, and the prevailing mood is to see a retest of the bottom and all 12k-expectants are in the trend again.
I never cease to be amazed at how many not only retail investors, but also analysts, succumb to emotions and, seeing the trend of the last few days, think that such a trend will always be there.
💡I also do not recommend following and listening to analysts who try to stand out by hyperbolizing their analysis, for example, those who predict millions in this cycle, or those who expect 8k. These are populists who follow the rule, "the more terrible the lie, the more people will believe it." And they gain popularity by misleading not far-sighted investors.
Now several weeks have passed, and the prevailing mood is to see a retest of the bottom and all 12k-expectants are in the trend again.
I never cease to be amazed at how many not only retail investors, but also analysts, succumb to emotions and, seeing the trend of the last few days, think that such a trend will always be there.
💡I also do not recommend following and listening to analysts who try to stand out by hyperbolizing their analysis, for example, those who predict millions in this cycle, or those who expect 8k. These are populists who follow the rule, "the more terrible the lie, the more people will believe it." And they gain popularity by misleading not far-sighted investors.
#Bitcoin Liquidity Zones.
The price goes to the zones of increased liquidity because that is where the big players can gain their position without provoking slippage.
In the price range of 30k+ there was a zone of increased liquidity and many big players closed their positions there.
Now such a zone in $BTC can be the price range of 22-25k, where large players can gain positions, eating small traders who are liquidated at these levels.
The price goes to the zones of increased liquidity because that is where the big players can gain their position without provoking slippage.
In the price range of 30k+ there was a zone of increased liquidity and many big players closed their positions there.
Now such a zone in $BTC can be the price range of 22-25k, where large players can gain positions, eating small traders who are liquidated at these levels.
#Bitcoin correction on DSS
Every time the moving averages enter the overbought zone🟩 on the Double Smoothed Stochastic oscillator, we get a red month candle, which provokes a correction. Which can quickly end like in 2016, or can go sideways like in 2020.
I would recommend being mentally prepared for a worse scenario (2020) because if you are prepared for the worst, you are prepared for all scenarios.
💡Anyone who is very observant could have noticed that I removed the black swan from the $BTC chart so that it would not spoil the picture of the analysis. After all, such moments are rather an exception to the rules and they are repeated very rarely.
Every time the moving averages enter the overbought zone🟩 on the Double Smoothed Stochastic oscillator, we get a red month candle, which provokes a correction. Which can quickly end like in 2016, or can go sideways like in 2020.
I would recommend being mentally prepared for a worse scenario (2020) because if you are prepared for the worst, you are prepared for all scenarios.
💡Anyone who is very observant could have noticed that I removed the black swan from the $BTC chart so that it would not spoil the picture of the analysis. After all, such moments are rather an exception to the rules and they are repeated very rarely.
#Bitcoin is in the accumulation phase.
What indicates this?
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is an indicator that measures the speed and extent of price changes in the market.
MFI (Money Flow Index) is an indicator that takes into account the volume of transactions and price changes to determine the money flow in the market.
When MFI is greater than RSI (indicator at the bottom🟠), the current price movement is supported by money flow. In other words, the strength indicator is weaker than the money flow indicator, which indicates that money flows into the $BTC, but the price does not change much, this is the so-called accumulation phase.
What indicates this?
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is an indicator that measures the speed and extent of price changes in the market.
MFI (Money Flow Index) is an indicator that takes into account the volume of transactions and price changes to determine the money flow in the market.
When MFI is greater than RSI (indicator at the bottom🟠), the current price movement is supported by money flow. In other words, the strength indicator is weaker than the money flow indicator, which indicates that money flows into the $BTC, but the price does not change much, this is the so-called accumulation phase.
(1/2)#Bitcoin Short-term analysis 📈
As I wrote in the last post, we collected liquidity below the 26k zone. What is the picture now?
➖From the negative:
- The half-year upward trend is broken and after that, we need some time to cool down.
-We are consolidating near the 200 weekly moving average and near the ~25k support zone. (Consolidation above a support zone often leads to a break of support.)
-Liquidations of short-term traders in the 22-24k zone.
-Seasonality, September is not the best month for Bitcoin.
➕On the positive side:
- Bullish divergence. You can see how divergences have worked at similar points in $BTC history.
- Social analysis, the majority of the market is in the mood for a downtrend to at least 20k, and those who are eternally waiting again hope for 8-12k.
- Although the volumes are low, the lower we go, the smaller they become, The trend says that either we are in for an acceleration of the price drop, or a reversal of the trend.
As I wrote in the last post, we collected liquidity below the 26k zone. What is the picture now?
➖From the negative:
- The half-year upward trend is broken and after that, we need some time to cool down.
-We are consolidating near the 200 weekly moving average and near the ~25k support zone. (Consolidation above a support zone often leads to a break of support.)
-Liquidations of short-term traders in the 22-24k zone.
-Seasonality, September is not the best month for Bitcoin.
➕On the positive side:
- Bullish divergence. You can see how divergences have worked at similar points in $BTC history.
- Social analysis, the majority of the market is in the mood for a downtrend to at least 20k, and those who are eternally waiting again hope for 8-12k.
- Although the volumes are low, the lower we go, the smaller they become, The trend says that either we are in for an acceleration of the price drop, or a reversal of the trend.
(2/2) Neutral: Although in the short term, there is no positive from the side of adoption of BTC in the form of acceptance of #ETF, although most are sure that long-term ETF will be accepted.
💡As we can see, the situation is not entirely clear-cut, I would expect the continuation of consolidations with a transition below the 25k zone, but with possible local rebounds closer to October.
💡As we can see, the situation is not entirely clear-cut, I would expect the continuation of consolidations with a transition below the 25k zone, but with possible local rebounds closer to October.
#Bitcoin Keltner Channel:
The width of the channel continues to narrow, we saw a similar consolidation in 2020. It can also be seen that the Keltner Channel's baseline has been the main obstacle to price growth in the last few months.
I think by the end of the year $BTC will deal with this resistance📈
The width of the channel continues to narrow, we saw a similar consolidation in 2020. It can also be seen that the Keltner Channel's baseline has been the main obstacle to price growth in the last few months.
I think by the end of the year $BTC will deal with this resistance📈
#Bitcoin Death Cross and why it's not a big deal.
Crossing moving averages is just a change in trend. Depending on the length of the MA, this is a short-term or long-term trend change.
There is also a situation such as 2020 and now, when the market is sideways, such signals of a trend change will turn into noise, because the price does not change.
💡What is interesting can still be understood from such an analysis. This is the distance of the price from 200 MA. Below is an oscillator that indicates local overbought in $BTC. It can be seen that the last mid-cycle peak was quite pronounced, which led to strong local overheating, after such moments a longer time is needed for correction🟠. Now this did not happen, this is one of the arguments why we will most likely not fall like in 2020 (below 20k).
Crossing moving averages is just a change in trend. Depending on the length of the MA, this is a short-term or long-term trend change.
There is also a situation such as 2020 and now, when the market is sideways, such signals of a trend change will turn into noise, because the price does not change.
💡What is interesting can still be understood from such an analysis. This is the distance of the price from 200 MA. Below is an oscillator that indicates local overbought in $BTC. It can be seen that the last mid-cycle peak was quite pronounced, which led to strong local overheating, after such moments a longer time is needed for correction🟠. Now this did not happen, this is one of the arguments why we will most likely not fall like in 2020 (below 20k).
#Bitcoin short-term key levels👀
$BTC is approaching the key zone of RSI 50, as well as a possible retest as resistance to BMS (if we overcome the value of RSI 50).
To be sure that the breakout on the rsi is not false, I would recommend waiting for the 55 mark, after reaching this zone, the rsi rarely falls back into bearish mode below 50.
It is also necessary to watch for the presence of bearish divergences if we do not surpass the previous local high (August 30).
💡I remind you that this is only a short-term technical analysis. For the completeness of the picture, use different methods of analysis and focus on the long-term horizon of planning.
$BTC is approaching the key zone of RSI 50, as well as a possible retest as resistance to BMS (if we overcome the value of RSI 50).
To be sure that the breakout on the rsi is not false, I would recommend waiting for the 55 mark, after reaching this zone, the rsi rarely falls back into bearish mode below 50.
It is also necessary to watch for the presence of bearish divergences if we do not surpass the previous local high (August 30).
💡I remind you that this is only a short-term technical analysis. For the completeness of the picture, use different methods of analysis and focus on the long-term horizon of planning.
#Bitcoin VAH resistance before halving
Looking at a fixed range volume profile for the period of bear markets (from peak to bottom), you can see where the volume accumulated when the price fell.
One such volume point is VAH (Value Area High). This range is helpful, because often the price in the future adheres to this range, and VAH is the maximum point of this range.
💡As you can see from the chart in the early phases of the bull market, before the halving, this zone acts as a significant resistance, and $BTC deals with it only in the approaching halving.
Looking at a fixed range volume profile for the period of bear markets (from peak to bottom), you can see where the volume accumulated when the price fell.
One such volume point is VAH (Value Area High). This range is helpful, because often the price in the future adheres to this range, and VAH is the maximum point of this range.
💡As you can see from the chart in the early phases of the bull market, before the halving, this zone acts as a significant resistance, and $BTC deals with it only in the approaching halving.
Quite an interesting indicator. I previously left a similar indicator at the development stage, under the development name support trend channel.
This indicator can be useful for following the trend and finding short-term support in #Bitcoin.
The disadvantages of this type of indicator are that its support lines are quite variable and change as soon as the price takes new highs/lows. For this, I added trend change labels.
This $BTC indicator is not quite ready yet, if you would like to see it more often in posts or subscriptions, write feedback, and I will know that you are interested in it and will improve it.
This indicator can be useful for following the trend and finding short-term support in #Bitcoin.
The disadvantages of this type of indicator are that its support lines are quite variable and change as soon as the price takes new highs/lows. For this, I added trend change labels.
This $BTC indicator is not quite ready yet, if you would like to see it more often in posts or subscriptions, write feedback, and I will know that you are interested in it and will improve it.
#Bitcoin short-term key levels. We're anchored above 50 on the RSI, which is a positive sign.
BMS (Bull Market Support) still poses significant resistance, and I believe it will take a few more days to challenge this resistance. Additionally, it seems like a bearish divergence is forming. However, as I mentioned earlier, we've had scenarios (B) where divergences didn't play out, so it's entirely possible.
Even if BMS pushes back $BTC price as resistance, I expect a new attempt to test BMS and a breakthrough in the coming 2 months
BMS (Bull Market Support) still poses significant resistance, and I believe it will take a few more days to challenge this resistance. Additionally, it seems like a bearish divergence is forming. However, as I mentioned earlier, we've had scenarios (B) where divergences didn't play out, so it's entirely possible.
Even if BMS pushes back $BTC price as resistance, I expect a new attempt to test BMS and a breakthrough in the coming 2 months
#Ethereum Comparison of cycles 🔁
The similarities are much more and they are more obvious, let's talk about the differences.
- As we can see, after the first entry in the last cycle, there was a second(2) entry into the green zone🟢, but this time there was no such event.
- The mid-cycle peak last time was much more pronounced (3), and greed🟥 appeared.
- Last time we were met by a black swan, in the basic scenario we do not expect this now. (4)
However, I see no reason why $ETH should not reach the yellow line(5). It will most likely be in 2024.
The similarities are much more and they are more obvious, let's talk about the differences.
- As we can see, after the first entry in the last cycle, there was a second(2) entry into the green zone🟢, but this time there was no such event.
- The mid-cycle peak last time was much more pronounced (3), and greed🟥 appeared.
- Last time we were met by a black swan, in the basic scenario we do not expect this now. (4)
However, I see no reason why $ETH should not reach the yellow line(5). It will most likely be in 2024.