(1/2) Why are we falling and why do I think there will be no deep correction?

🗣The first is, of course, geopolitics, risks are growing again in the Middle East,

🗣The second is additional liquidity from the US government and mt GOX.

🗣A crisis of narratives, nothing very positive will happen in the next 2 months, and the seasonality in those months also does not give anything positive.

🗣Fears that key rates will be lowered will bring negativity to the market, as has been the case historically.

(2/2) Why these are not big problems?

💡Geopolitics. I don't want to delve into possible options, but in the basic version, I expect a repetition of the option as it was in April, after which the situation cooled down.

💡The market will absorb the liquidity here and as in the past, as we saw in the story with the sales of the German government.

💡I think there will be narratives, and seasonality does not show us a deep correction, only consolidation.

💡I consider that the negative will be only in snp500 and then very short-term. In general, lowering rates is positive, both for business and for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.

P.S. In the table of seasonality, I left only the necessary months, taking away bear years and too early years.

$GLM increased 4x💰 reaching the orange zone🟠 + greed🟥

Buying in the green zone🟩 + fear🟦 which indicates that the asset was undervalued, gave us a good entry point into the asset.

What's up with $ETH? (Keltner Channel)

Today was difficult for the stock market, one of the biggest down days in the last 4 years.

#Ethereum has a large technology team that makes it look like a company with a Nasdaq and it is not surprising that it is correlated with this drop today.

🤔What's up with the ETF influx? So far, we have a strong outflow through grayscale, but according to forecasts, in a few weeks the outflow should end, and the inflow should increase.

💡This generally coincides with our forecast for the cryptocurrency market, we expect positive things from autumn.

#Bitcoin 3 Phases Theory 🚦

Why do I think we still have a yellow light🟡 and a green one🟢 is still ahead?

📝First of all, we did not have a fixation (two closes in a row above) on the weekly chart above the zone of the past ATH.

📝The next, yellow phase usually lasts about 2 years, (100 weeks). The fact that we quickly grew on the adoption of ETFs to past maximums led to overheating and correction, rather than starting a green phase.

💡The movement in this model converges with our other models and other methods of analysis, which tells us that a new movement is coming soon in a few weeks.

$ICP earned 4x by reaching the orange zone🟠 + greed🟥

We bought when the asset was undervalued, in the green zone🟩 + experiencing fear🟦 We always recommend taking profit💰 in the orange zone, and this chart shows why.

Has anything changed? No

We are finishing the 2nd wave of movement.

#Bitcoin 3-wave on Keltner Channels 📈

📝The previous situation is a good example that you need to look at the world in general. Considering macroeconomics and fundamental analysis. How I do it every time.

🗣If you did not look at my analysis, but others, you can thank your analysts who drew you 100k in the summer, enjoyed the buy signal on the hash ribbon, or drew a cap & handle.

💡What awaits us in the future? Of course, the stock markets will be supported by the injection of liquidity, and we expect another powerful movement in the autumn.

$NOT cooled off nicely after reaching the orange zone🟠

That is why it is useful to fix a profit💰 on this signal.

💡By the way, the indicator now shows a rather interesting picture and 🟢 signal has appeared on some assets. Those who haven't subscribed to Feels yet, are welcome.

#Bitcoin distance from BMS 👀

📝When we were at 72k, I posted a scenario with a correction with a downtrend in the next few months. Now this scenario is still relevant.

🤔If there are no new unforeseen situations, such as the cracking of some sector of the economy, and we live to see the previous rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE) this autumn, this scenario will play out in full. I still think of it as a base scenario.

$TON Greed disappeared and fell under the yellow zone〽️

As we can see, the asset has cooled down a little but is still far from the green zone🟩, which means that it is still too early to buy it.

However, at the same time, some assets are still in the green zone.

$XRP We have positive news from Ripple, of course, in such a market it is not necessary to wait for the maximum to be broken, but everything is ahead.

By the way, last year the asset brought x3, as if to fix the profit on Greed🟥.

$NEAR Fear🟦 and the green zone🟩. Did you manage to take advantage of the opportunity?

Last time this brought x9 profit💰. Feels subscription investors always get better information than the rest of the market.

$AVAX Another asset that had a double signal(🟢+🟦) with a good entry possibility.

Earlier, after reaching the orange signal🟠, the asset fell nicely. And now, after the green signal, it continues to recover.

When to buy $ETH?🤔

Consider the Feels indicators Fear & Greed + Keltner channel.

#DCA is suitable for many people because of its simplicity and the ability to choose when liquidity appears

📝So when the market feels Fear and the price enters the green zone, it is a favorable time.

$RSR Another asset that received a green signal🟢 + Fear🟦.

Quite recently, we recorded a profit💰 in this asset after buying in the previous signals. And now the situation repeats itself.

What's the deal with Global Liquidity?

We all know that Global Net Liquidity plays a crucial role in asset growth, especially for #BTC 📈

🌍 The largest provider of liquidity, the Fed, is expected to lower rates by September, which would boost overall liquidity.

📅 And don't forget the cycles in the world's second-largest economy. Their liquidity injections follow a yearly cycle, with the next one kicking off in October.

For the past 2 years, we have grown against the trend of liquidity, imagine what will happen when liquidity meets us🚀

$LPT has dropped about 65% since we showed it reaching the orange zone🟠 and has provided an 8x return🤑

Are you still considering🤔 whether taking profit in the orange zone is a smart idea?

$TON has risen by 10% over the past 24 hours📈

Thanks to the buy signal🟢 we got a good entry point, but the asset couldn't reach the orange zone🟧 and dropped below the yellow zone🟨 To start, it would be ideal to see a breakout of 🟨 and a close above it before looking for🟠

$RAY continues to cool off after hitting the signal (🟠+🟥)

Those who took profit💰 in the orange zone made quite good money🤑 Now we see that the asset couldn't hold above the yellow zone🟨 and has fallen below it.

Consolidation in Crypto Sentiment

It's not just sharp corrections that push people out of the market. Extended periods of consolidation—like the one we've been in for almost 6 months—can be just as challenging 📉

As Bitcoin continues trading in a range (50-70k), many traders become impatient and exit the market.

💡But this is nothing new. Historically, the market always finds a way to test investors' resolve. Only those who stay patient and stick to their long-term strategies come out stronger.

📝Remember: Consolidations are part of the cycle. Patience pays off in the end.

$RARE has tripled🤯 in less than two weeks since the buy signal🟢

The first time the asset touched the green zone and reached the orange zone🟧 + greed🟥 we made 3x profit. But before it can reach the orange zone again, it first needs to break through the yellow zone🟨