#Bitcoin Keltner Channels π
The current BTC cycle is often compared to the cycle of 2016 or 2020. Well, let's consider what if this cycle is different.
In the first cycle(2016), we did not have substantive and protracted corrections. The second cycle had a more pronounced mid-cycle peak, and a longer consolidation after it, and even then the 2nd wave of movement.
The current cycle can have a 3-wave movement. What does this indicate?
π‘For example, if now the ETF inflow continues to be positive, and in a month everyone will understand that the halving is very soon, this may lead to the fact that there will be no substantial corrections for another 2-3 months.
πThe third wave will begin already after a decrease in sales from miners and an increase in liquidity from lowering interest rates and infusions into the economy.
The current BTC cycle is often compared to the cycle of 2016 or 2020. Well, let's consider what if this cycle is different.
In the first cycle(2016), we did not have substantive and protracted corrections. The second cycle had a more pronounced mid-cycle peak, and a longer consolidation after it, and even then the 2nd wave of movement.
The current cycle can have a 3-wave movement. What does this indicate?
π‘For example, if now the ETF inflow continues to be positive, and in a month everyone will understand that the halving is very soon, this may lead to the fact that there will be no substantial corrections for another 2-3 months.
πThe third wave will begin already after a decrease in sales from miners and an increase in liquidity from lowering interest rates and infusions into the economy.
$BTC / SP500 Correlation π
#Bitcoin and the SPX mostly correlate (move similarly). It is clearly visible that most of the histogram is green except for some cases which I circled in gray areas.
πWhat do we have now? Although they are now maintaining a positive correlation, the latest movement of the stock market is even stronger than that of Bitcoin.
π‘The stock market is growing due to optimism about increased liquidity and, of course, the AI narrative, which has had a strong impact on MSFT and NVDA, strongly driving the technology sector SP500.
So far, most analysts agree that 2024 will be positive for the stock market.
#Bitcoin and the SPX mostly correlate (move similarly). It is clearly visible that most of the histogram is green except for some cases which I circled in gray areas.
πWhat do we have now? Although they are now maintaining a positive correlation, the latest movement of the stock market is even stronger than that of Bitcoin.
π‘The stock market is growing due to optimism about increased liquidity and, of course, the AI narrative, which has had a strong impact on MSFT and NVDA, strongly driving the technology sector SP500.
So far, most analysts agree that 2024 will be positive for the stock market.
I posted a Log Regression when #Bitcoin was 15k.
I publish now when it is 62k. So $BTC has already done x4.
What now? Shall we break the ATH? Let's consider the pros and cons.
This is why yes:
βIncreasing global liquidity.
βSo far, positive flow from ETFs.
Here's why not:
βStrong overbought
βPreviously, there was no ATH breakout before the halving. And immediately after, the "sell in May" season.
βStrong sales began (in medium wallets), because many people consider ATH a good zone to sell the part.
π‘Conclusion. If we do not break the ATH in the next 2 months, it will likely happen in the autumn. In the base case scenario, I only expect a test ATH unless ETF flows and liquidity increase significantly.
I publish now when it is 62k. So $BTC has already done x4.
What now? Shall we break the ATH? Let's consider the pros and cons.
This is why yes:
βIncreasing global liquidity.
βSo far, positive flow from ETFs.
Here's why not:
βStrong overbought
βPreviously, there was no ATH breakout before the halving. And immediately after, the "sell in May" season.
βStrong sales began (in medium wallets), because many people consider ATH a good zone to sell the part.
π‘Conclusion. If we do not break the ATH in the next 2 months, it will likely happen in the autumn. In the base case scenario, I only expect a test ATH unless ETF flows and liquidity increase significantly.
#FLOKI, is a meme coin that has grown by 100%π in the last 24 hours. We do not recommend investing in meme coins.
If you are still ready to take significant risks, you could have bought $FLOKI on a buy signalπ’ and sold it now in the orange zoneπ , combined with greedπ₯
If you are still ready to take significant risks, you could have bought $FLOKI on a buy signalπ’ and sold it now in the orange zoneπ , combined with greedπ₯
$AR has shown strong growth dynamicsπ in recent days.
People who have accessπ to our indicators bought #Arweave on the buy signalπ’. It would be a good idea to partially lock in your positionsπ°, as we have reached the orange zoneπ and recently started feeling greedπ₯
People who have accessπ to our indicators bought #Arweave on the buy signalπ’. It would be a good idea to partially lock in your positionsπ°, as we have reached the orange zoneπ and recently started feeling greedπ₯
#Bitcoin distance from BMS π
Below is the oscillator, which shows how far the price has moved away from the bull market support. Mostly when we are in the 2-3 year of the cycle, the mark on the oscillator 40 acts as resistance, which indicates a mid-cycle peak.
Can it be different this time?π€
Let's imagine that the $BTC ETF inflow will be greater and distort the situation, in this case, we have a second trend line that indicates a global peak, which, by the way, becomes lower every cycle, now this mark is around ~50 on the oscillator or 80k on the price chart. You can consider this mark a best-case scenario for a local peak.
π‘Remember, a good investor does not rely on one scenario but is ready for any.
Below is the oscillator, which shows how far the price has moved away from the bull market support. Mostly when we are in the 2-3 year of the cycle, the mark on the oscillator 40 acts as resistance, which indicates a mid-cycle peak.
Can it be different this time?π€
Let's imagine that the $BTC ETF inflow will be greater and distort the situation, in this case, we have a second trend line that indicates a global peak, which, by the way, becomes lower every cycle, now this mark is around ~50 on the oscillator or 80k on the price chart. You can consider this mark a best-case scenario for a local peak.
π‘Remember, a good investor does not rely on one scenario but is ready for any.
I think everyone is tired of meme coins, so today let's talk about $AVAX.
Combining buy signalπ’ and selling in the orange zoneπ with extreme greedπ₯ has led to a x5 increaseπ° Currently, #Avalanche is heading towards the orange zone and has every chance of reaching it.
Combining buy signalπ’ and selling in the orange zoneπ with extreme greedπ₯ has led to a x5 increaseπ° Currently, #Avalanche is heading towards the orange zone and has every chance of reaching it.
#Bitcoin Log Regression π
The orange line, as in the previous cycle, offers strong resistance.
π‘I think $BTC will stay at the current mark for another month. After that, we go to the correction, most likely it will not be a deep correction, but rather a consolidation.
This is indicated by overbought and seasonality.
βοΈ And also the capitulation of miners after the halving is possible, this will lead to a decrease in the hashrate, which will slow down the growth for some time. But do not be sad, the bull market will continue closer to autumnβοΈ
The orange line, as in the previous cycle, offers strong resistance.
π‘I think $BTC will stay at the current mark for another month. After that, we go to the correction, most likely it will not be a deep correction, but rather a consolidation.
This is indicated by overbought and seasonality.
βοΈ And also the capitulation of miners after the halving is possible, this will lead to a decrease in the hashrate, which will slow down the growth for some time. But do not be sad, the bull market will continue closer to autumnβοΈ
$CORE has tripled in value over the past weekπ€ and has reached the orange zoneπ
Just yesterday, I emphasized that #CORE had all the chances to reach π and today it has done so. Since the buy signalπ’ it has brought us x5 gains, so we recommend partially locking in profitsπ°
Just yesterday, I emphasized that #CORE had all the chances to reach π and today it has done so. Since the buy signalπ’ it has brought us x5 gains, so we recommend partially locking in profitsπ°
$CREDI, a coin that has grown by 59 timesπ€― since the buy signalπ’
Historically, #CREDIFI has found it challenging to reach or surpass the red zoneπ΄ so selling most of your coins near the red zone is also a good idea, especially when combined with extreme greedπ₯
Historically, #CREDIFI has found it challenging to reach or surpass the red zoneπ΄ so selling most of your coins near the red zone is also a good idea, especially when combined with extreme greedπ₯